This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Last week's Game Focus also featured the Red Sox and today's starter Brayan Bello. Last week, I was forecasting a high-scoring affair against the Braves, and while that one didn't hit, Boston did win outright at +136 AND hit on the alternate run line at +210 for those that were willing to play it. Yet again, we'll dive into Boston's situation today as they take on Seattle in the rubber game of their 3-game series at Fenway.
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Seattle Mariners at 
Boston Red Sox Best Bets
As mentioned above, this is the rubber game of this 3-gamer at Fenway with the Mariners taking the first game 10-1 on Monday and the Red Sox coming back with a 9-4 victory last night. There is very little history between the respective lineups of both teams and today's starters, Brayan Bello for Boston and Marco Gonzales for Seattle. As a whole, neither pitcher has great numbers coming into the game, but both have been victims of a couple of blow-ups. In fact, three of Gonzales' last five starts have been Quality Starts and Bello has progressively gotten better throughout the year, culminating in his first QS in last week's game against the Braves. The surface numbers of each pitcher plus the results of the first two games points to a potentially high-scoring affair tonight and the posted number supports that public view. However, the deeper numbers support value on the under, particularly at + money.
MLB Best Bet: Mariners/Red Sox UNDER 10 (+115) @ DraftKings
A basic toss-up between starting pitchers generally draws my attention to the underdog on the moneyline and this situation is no different. Seattle comes in 6-4 in their last 10 with a winning record on the road (11-9). Their young lineup can run hot and cold but they can hang with anyone. Boston is sliding a bit after their hot start, losing four in a row before last night's victory. I'd love to see a bit more value on the moneyline, but I still like the Mariners to win this one outright.
MLB Best Bet: Mariners ML (+110) @ FanDuel
There are two players I'm watching for player props in this one: Teoscar Hernandez and Justin Turner. Hernandez has had two hits in each of the first two games and has been seeing the ball well recently after a slow start. Turner is coming off a two-hit night last night and has been the steady cornerstone of the Red Sox formidable offensive attack. While Hernandez's 2+ Hit prop has better value at +210, it isn't enough to sway me away from the veteran Turner, particularly with a soft-tossing lefty on the hill. If your bankroll can handle it, I'd make a play on both, but my official choice for this one is on Justin Turner.
MLB Expert Player Prop for Red Sox vs Mariners
- Justin Turner 2+ Hits (+200) @ DraftKings
Wednesday MLB Game Focus Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my Game Focus Best Bets for Wednesday, May 17:
- Mariners/Red Sox UNDER 10 (+115) @ DraftKings
- Mariners ML (+110) @ FanDuel
- Justin Turner 2+ Hits (+200) @ DraftKings
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