MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

With teams having played anywhere from 12 to 19 games, we're roughly 10 percent of the way through the 2019 season. To get a sense for how big 10 percent really is, and how strongly we should react to what we've seen so far, here are a few relevant 10 percents throughout history:

1. 10 percent of the way into the universe's lifetime, galaxies had only recently begun to form.
2. 10 percent of the way into the Earth's timeline, the planet didn't have continental plates or a magnetic field.
3. 10 percent of the way into the timeline of humanity, we hadn't yet left Africa.
4. 10 percent of the way into the history of Rome, the Romans hadn't yet founded the Republic, let alone the Empire.
5. 10 percent of the way into the history of the United States, Thomas Jefferson was about to be elected president.
6. 10 percent of the way into the modern history of baseball, the likes of Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson and Grover Cleveland Alexander  topped the leaderboards, while Home Run Baker tied Tris Speaker for the American League home run crown with a grand total of 10.

It seems safe to say the foundations of a good or bad fantasy season can be laid down in the first 10 percent of the year, but there's still quite a while to go yet. Tim Anderson leading the league in batting average is a lot easier to contextualize when you realize that John Adams is still metaphorically president. Just as the United States could have been torn apart in the Civil War (which occurred at a time roughly corresponding to June 1 to June 4 on the baseball calendar), there's plenty of time to ruin your fantasy season with an ill-advised trade weeks from now, but the stats you've already accumulated do still count, and it's certainly meaningful to be near the top of the standings already rather than near the bottom.

Mike Trout is already second in WAR, so it's clear that leaderboards are beginning to have some relevance despite the Federalist Party still being in power. High-variance stats like batting average and ERA are still likely to mislead, but velocity changes, plate discipline changes, pitch mix and batted-ball data are all becoming increasingly trustworthy. Perhaps more significantly, especially for pitchers, we've begun to see players face a variety of teams, so stats won't be as skewed by one start against a weak lineup.

Before moving on to this week's risers and fallers, a quick reminder of how this column is meant to be used is in order. This is not an add/drop list, so don't go dropping Jose Ramirez for Daniel Vogelbach based on seeing their names here. It's instead a discussion of players whose stocks appear to have meaningfully appreciated or depreciated in recent weeks. If you can find an owner who's willing to buy Ramirez at his draft-day price or sell Cody Bellinger at his, those are definitely moves worth pursuing.

RISERS

Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Dodgers: Bellinger might be taking the next step. After finishing draft season with an NFBC ADP of 43.17, the 23-year-old has jumped out to a commanding lead in our Earned Auction Values. If the season ended Monday, he'd be a $70 player in 15-team leagues, $25 ahead of the next closest player (Domingo Santana). Still around the age of the average Double-A player, it shouldn't be too surprising if Bellinger reaches another level in his third season, but his .424/.500/.909 batting line and NL-leading nine homers are quite the jump from the .263/.347/.522 and 32 homers per season he recorded his first two years in the big leagues. According to Statcast, he's earned every bit of his performance this season, as his expected batting average is a near match for his actual batting average at .425, 37 points ahead of Mike Trout in second place. He's also dramatically cut his strikeout rate, which is 11.8 percent after coming in at 25.2 percent through his first two seasons. Bellinger won't keep up quite this pace all season, but it wouldn't be surprising if he's drafted as a first-round pick next year.

Daniel Vogelbach, 1B, Mariners: Vogelbach looked like a prototypical Quad-A player, hitting an impressive .291/.411/.496 at the Triple-A level but stumbling to a .197/.301/.315 line in limited big-league action. Now in a regular role (starting 10 of the last 13 games), the 26-year-old has crushed the ball. His 96.7 mph average exit velocity ranks second to Aaron Judge among hitters with at least 10 batted balls, leading to an incredible .378/.478/.973 line. His minor-league track record suggests he won't keep being an elite power hitter, but he's always had excellent plate discipline, walking 16.9 percent of the time with a 17.4 percent strikeout rate as a Triple-A player. He fits the profile of a player whose power could increase when given the chance to hit the juiced major-league ball on a regular basis.

Luis Castillo, SP, Reds: Perhaps the hype was simply a year early on Castillo. Drafted as the 41st pitcher off the board this offseason, he's been the seventh-best pitcher according to the Earned Auction Values. There's been some luck in his 0.92 ERA, as he's running a .135 BABIP and an 85.7 percent strand rate, but a good deal of his improvement appears to be real, as his strikeout rate has jumped from a forgettable 23.3 percent to an excellent 35.2 percent, thanks to a league-high 57.4 percent contact rate. He's also kept the ball on the ground 47.1 percent of the time, up significantly from his 45.9 percent mark last season and in line with his numbers from his rookie season. There's at least one red flag still – an inflated 11.3 percent walk rate – but fantasy owners will take a few more walks if they can also get a big jump in strikeouts and groundballs.

Tyler Glasnow, SP, Rays: Glasnow didn't come particularly cheaply during draft season considering his track record, finishing as the 56th pitcher off the board. There was inevitably someone in most drafts who believed the Rays would fix him, as they've fixed many others, and Glasnow has been making those who had faith in him look smart through his first three starts, allowing a single run in 17 innings. That low innings total likely will continue, but the short outings have allowed Glasnow to get by throwing almost exclusively his fastball and curveball, a pitch he's now throwing 31.1 percent of the time, nearly twice as frequently as last season. He's done far more than just get by, pairing a 32.8 percent strikeout rate with a 4.7 percent walk rate. He likely wouldn't be able to keep up those numbers if asked to go deeper into games, but his dramatic improvement isn't too surprising when considering his former prospect hype, so he has a legitimate shot to be one of the better starters in the league on a per-inning basis.

Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: Reyes makes this list despite a mediocre .220/.306/.488 batting line, as his supporting stats and usage are universally positive. No player has been more unlucky, according to Statcast's expected batting average, as Reyes deserves a batting average a .364 based on how he's hit the ball this year. His expected slugging percentage of .811 tells a similar story, ranking fifth highest in the league. The Padres kept the faith with Reyes after he had two hits in his first 10 games, and he now has seven hits in his last seven, including three home runs. He's started each of the last four games and has been moved up to the second spot in the order for the last two. The Padres clearly still believe in him, and it would be wise to take advantage of any fantasy owner who doesn't.

Drew Pomeranz, SP, Giants: Pomeranz was nearly forgotten during draft season after an awful, injury-filled 2018 campaign. Through his first three starts with the Giants, he has a completely respectable 3.86 ERA. His strikeout rate is up seven percentage points to 26.2 percent, while his groundball rate is up more than 11 percentage points to 48.7 percent. Most important, his fastball velocity is up 2.4 mph, the second-highest jump of the season, according to our velocity change tracker, a jump that's even more impressive considering he spent much of last year in relief. Don't expect a ton from Pomeranz, and certainly don't expect durability, but he looks like he's back to being at least a capable enough streamer as long as he's healthy, especially given his pitcher-friendly home park.

FALLERS

Miles Mikolas, SP, Cardinals: Mikolas' 2019 campaign is a textbook example of why I almost never like low-strikeout pitchers at their draft prices. Yes, we're learning more and more about a pitcher's ability to induce weak contact and outperform his ERA estimators, but ERA still varies far more than strikeout rate and always will, no matter how much we learn, as it depends to a much greater extent on things outside a pitcher's control. We can be pretty confident that a high-strikeout pitcher still will provide value in that category even if his ERA is high, but if a low-strikeout pitcher runs into a stretch of bad luck, he winds up providing his fantasy owners with virtually nothing. Unfortunately for Mikolas owners, his poor performance looks like more than bad luck. His strikeout rate has plunged nearly seven points to 11.3 percent, third lowest among qualified starters, and his 86.2 percent contact rate is highest among the same group. A pitcher with his profile can't be pitching from behind on a regular basis, so he'll have to turn around a 13-point drop in his first-strike rate (57.8 percent) if he's to live up to his draft price.

Jose Ramirez, 3B, Indians: An early first-round pick in most fantasy drafts this offseason, Ramirez could hardly have had a worse start to the season. His batting line through 15 games is .140/.180/.193. While it clearly takes some bad luck to end up with a batting average that low, his expected batting average according to Statcast is a mere .201, so it's not as if he's been hitting the ball anywhere close to expectations. His soft-hit rate of 29.2 percent ranks sixth highest in the league among qualified hitters. His formerly elite plate discipline has eroded as well, as his strikeout rate has jumped nearly five points to 16.4 percent while his walk rate has plunged nearly 12 percentage points to a mere 3.3 percent.

Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Red Sox: Through his first three starts of the season, Eovaldi has failed to capture the form he showed as a postseason hero last October and has even fallen far short of the form he showed as a solidly above-average starter for the bulk of last season. He's allowed 14 runs in 15 innings, while his strikeout and walk rates both sit at 14.3 percent, very poor for both categories. He's been hit hard when he keeps the ball in the zone, allowing a 49 percent hard-hit rate. The Red Sox chose to delay Eovaldi's start to spring training after their World Series run, so fantasy owners with the bench room may want to wait for a few more starts to see if he figures things out.

Nick Pivetta, SP, Phillies: Nick Pivetta is the ultimate test of xFIP. While FIP assumes a pitcher has no control over his balls in play (an oversimplification, but still a useful one) and builds an estimated ERA out of a pitcher's strikeout, walk and home-run rates, xFIP goes one step further. It also assumes (in another useful oversimplification) that a pitcher has no control over his home-run rate, estimating his ERA instead based on his strikeout, walk and flyball rates as well as the league's overall home run-per-flyball-rate. In his rookie campaign, Pivetta paired an ugly 6.02 ERA with a decent 4.26 xFIP, suggesting potential as a playable back-end starter. Last season, his ERA dropped to a still unimpressive 4.77, while his 3.42 xFIP suggested potential frontline starter potential and gave him plenty of sleeper buzz. Through three starts this year, his xFIP is a respectable 3.97, but his ERA is at an awful 9.45. The latter number surely will come down a fair amount along with his .447 BABIP, but with the ball flying out of the park around the league at a higher rate than ever, it stands to reason that mistake-prone pitchers like Pivetta will continue to perform worse than their peripherals suggest.

Ian Desmond, 1B/OF, Rockies: Posting a 20-20 season and playing in Coors Field understandably boosted Desmond's draft price, but his fantasy owners are likely regretting the pick already. It doesn't take any fancy, park-adjusted stats to know that Desmond's .140/.183/.193 line is quite poor, but his league-low -16 wRC+ summarizes things quite nicely. His strikeout rate has jumped more than eight points to a career-high 31.7 percent, while his 5.0 percent walk rate is his lowest since 2010. He's yet to record a single homer, steal, or run scored. The Rockies would be wise to consider scaling back the veteran's playing time once David Dahl (abdomen) returns from the injured list.