MLB Barometer: May Risers and Fallers

First and foremost, Memorial Day is a time to remember our military veterans who paid the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom. Before we celebrate this holiday with baseball, barbecue, family and friends, take a moment to remember what today truly represents. Last year, there was no baseball on Memorial Day for the first time in 140 years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as the abbreviated 2020 season didn't start until July 23. Today, baseball is back, and teams will hold pregame ceremonies, stadium flyovers and wear special uniforms to honor our fallen heroes. Sincerest thanks to the brave men and women who fought for our freedom and paid with their lives.

"Home of the free because of the brave." – Unknown

Now that we're two months through the 2021 season, let's discuss a handful of players have improved their stock during the month of May, and several who are struggling.

RISERS

Kevin Gausman, SP, Giants – Despite Gausman being removed from Sunday's start against the Dodgers at the end of the sixth inning due to a hip issue, the Giants called his removal precautionary after he fielded a grounder and appeared to stretch awkwardly during the play. Gausman had yet to undergo an MRI at the time of this writing and expects to make his next start, so let's take a moment to focus on why he headlines this week's risers. To put it simply, the 30-year-old right-hander was outstanding in May. In six starts, Gausman went 5-0 with only three runs allowed over 37 innings. He struck out 49 against only seven walks during that span. Gausman's overall numbers this season – 1.40 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 83:16 K:BB over 70.2 innings – would put him in the National League Cy Young Award conversation with the likes of Jacob deGrom, Trevor Bauer, Brandon Woodruff and numerous other contenders if the award was handed out today.

Marcus Semien, 2B/SS, Blue Jays – After a relatively quiet April during which Semien hit .211 with just five extra-base hits (all home runs), the veteran infielder tore the cover off the ball during the month of May. In 27 games, he hit .368 with 12 doubles, a triple and eight home runs, which more than doubled his total bases accumulated in April. After swiping six bags last month, he was far less active on the base paths with only two steals in as many attempts, but his eight steals overall leads the Blue Jays while also providing his team and fantasy owners with high-end power (13 home runs) and run production (32 RBI). After hitting a career-high 33 home runs with Oakland in 2019, Semien is on pace to surpass the 30-home run mark again in 2021. His current 45.3 percent hard-hit rate is seven percentage points higher than it was during his breakout 2019 season.

Jordan Romano, RP, Blue Jays – Staying in Toronto – err, Dunedin/Buffalo – Romano was the spring favorite to step into the closer role after Kirby Yates underwent Tommy John surgery in late-March, but manager Charlie Montoyo elected to use a combination of Julian Merryweather and Rafael Dolis in the role instead. However, Romano's dominance during the month of May did not go unnoticed, as he converted his first save chance of the season on May 11 and has logged two more since that date. In 13 appearances during the month, the right-hander pitched 13 innings with a 1.38 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 19:4 K:BB with two wins, three saves and three holds. Romano is Toronto's highest-leverage arm, and he could finally step into a full-time closer role due to a combination of his recent success, Rafael Dolis' struggles and the bevy of injuries in the Blue Jays' bullpen.

Austin Riley, 3B, Braves – Remember back in 2019 when Riley hit nine home runs in his first 18 career games? Do you also remember when the league adjusted to him and he hit well under the Mendoza line over the last three months of his rookie season? The 24-year-old third baseman exhibited encouraging improvements during last season's abbreviated campaign, significantly raising his contact rate (73.9 percent) by 13.3 percentage points. That mark (66.9 percent) has dropped slightly in 2021, but Riley recently went on another power surge in May, hitting .326 with seven long balls during the month. Contact issues remain (28.0 percent strikeout rate), but Riley is drawing free passes at a career-best 11.4 percent clip thus far. He recently moved into the cleanup spot in the Braves' lineup with Marcell Ozuna (finger) out for the next six weeks, which should present plenty of RBI opportunities in the near future with Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies hitting in front of him.

Austin Meadows, OF, Rays – This is the Meadows whom fantasy owners expected to see upon making an early-fifth round investment (60.5 ADP) in NFBC Main Event drafts. The 26-year-old has been an RBI machine for the Rays, driving home 27 runs in May while finally tapping into the power he showed off in 2019 with seven home runs during the month. Meadows' batting average still isn't great at .233, and he is still dreadful against southpaws (.146 BAA) while sitting against most of them, but his strikeout rate (25.2 percent) is seven percent lower than last season, and he's walking at a career-best 13.6 percent clip. With a sprint speed in the 61st percentile, Meadows is unlikely to contribute many stolen bases, but months like this will keep him on track for a 30-home run, 90-RBI season. 

FALLERS

Blake Snell, SP, Padres – Finally free from Tampa Bay's unwillingness to pitch him deep into games, Snell's story with San Diego has been more of the same, as he's completed six innings just once through 11 starts. His 14.2 percent walk rate is the worst mark of his career and a big reason why he is not pitching deeper into games. A seven-run implosion against the Astros on Sunday closed the door on an awful month of May, during which Snell allowed 20 earned runs over 26.1 innings with 19 walks and six home runs allowed across six starts. The former AL Cy Young award winner struck out 39 over that stretch, but his season ERA ballooned to 5.55 with a 1.60 WHIP on the season after the rough patch. Snell lines up for a favorable home start – where he has pitched significantly better (2.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) – against the ailing Mets next weekend.

Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners – Sunday's 0-for-3 performance marked Kelenic's fifth consecutive 0-for, during which the rookie has gone hitless over his last 19 at-bats with two walks and five strikeouts. He's not striking out a ton (19.7 percent) but he's not getting on base either, which has led to a poor .123 batting average, .197 OBP and .246 slugging for an abysmal .443 OPS. On a positive note, Kelenic is making consistent contact (78.5 percent) hitting atop the Mariners' batting order, though it's possible Seattle removes him from the leadoff spot until he can string some hits together.

Yordan Alvarez, UT, Astros – Alvarez missed his fourth straight game Sunday due to right wrist soreness, and he's unlikely to play this afternoon when Houston hosts Boston to kick off an important four-game series for the two division contenders. Manager Dusty Baker previously considered putting Alvarez on the injured list, but the 23-year-old is hopeful to return early this week if he progresses as expected. Prior to his absence from the lineup, it was clear that something was bothering Alvarez, as he went 3-for-26 with 13 strikeouts from May 18 through May 25 before news of the wrist soreness surfaced. While Alvarez struck out at a 30.7 percent clip in May, he remains one of the game's best young hitters when healthy. He's just a risky start this week.

Cesar Valdez, RP, Orioles – Valdez doesn't fit the typical closer profile, as his primary pitch is a changeup that he throws 81 percent of the time at an average of 78 mph. His fastball tops out in the mid-80s, but he rarely throws it (16 percent of the time). Despite the profile, the 36-year-old recorded six saves in April and had been Baltimore's most trusted high-leverage arm. However, recent implosions in May bloated his ratios (5.30 ERA, 1.66 WHIP), and his grasp on the closer role is now in jeopardy. Baltimore reliever Paul Fry was a popular pickup on Sunday in 25 of 43 NFBC Main Event leagues after Orioles manager Brandon Hyde indicated he was considering Fry as an option to close games.