MLB Barometer: Bounce Back for Berrios?

May 14, 2006.

I remember a lot of things about that day.

I watched the end of the Brewers game with my family, just hours after walking off the stage at the Kohl Center as a college graduate, climbing the Abe Lincoln statue atop Bascom Hill, and telling Honest Abe that I wasn't quite sure what I was going to do with my life.

At least in the pictures, I didn't look concerned about my future.

We were sitting on the futon and the old hand-me-down couch in the living room of the first apartment that my wife and I rented on the west side of Madison.

It was Mother's Day.

Bill Hall hit a walk-off home run at Miller Park, with his mother in attendance.

The following season, the Brewers had a Bill Hall Bobblehead Day, and I was lucky enough to get the limited retro uniform version with the pink bat, commemorating the Mother's Day walk-off homer.

The Brewers have had a few standout performances on Mother's Day over the years, and Freddy Peralta's big-league debut Sunday was another that will be remembered for a long time.

Peralta's family had traveled from the Dominican Republic to Colorado Springs to see him pitch at Triple-A -- for the first time as a professional -- but they ended up seeing him make that start for the Brewers in Denver when Chase Anderson was expectedly sidelined with food poisoning.

The Brewers' rookie pitcher leads off this week's group of risers...

Risers

Freddy Peralta, SP, MIL -- The Brewers brought up Peralta for his MLB debut Sunday after Chase Anderson (illness) landed on the 10-day DL. With Wade Miley also on the DL (oblique), Peralta can remain in the rotation and allow Brent Suter to return to his swingman role. Peralta carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning of his first career start, racking up 13 strikeouts along the way and finishing with 5.2 scoreless innings on the road, in the league's most hitter-friendly park. Pitch classification systems make Peralta look very one-dimensional at the present time, showing 90 of his 98 pitches as fastballs in his debut (the other eight were curveballs).

While he doesn't have a great third offering right now (he's developing a changeup), Peralta has good deception and extension in his delivery, which makes his fastball play up. Additionally, he alters the movement of his fastballs -- with sink, cutting auction and arm-side run -- to create a psuedo four-pitch mix once you add his breaking ball. (Additional reading: Jeff Sullivan's breakdown of Peralta's debut at FanGraphs)

As values go, I believe Peralta falls close to Yankees starter Domingo German, with immediate relevance in 15-team mixed leagues, and being worthy of a speculative add in 12-team mixers.

Charlie Morton, SP, HOU -- It was easy to look at Morton's 2017 season and deem it the best of his career, and expect certain regression on the horizon. After all, he's battled major injuries throughout his time in the big leagues, and pitchers rarely add velocity in their early-30s as Morton did in 2016 and 2017. Instead, Morton has added another tick to his fastball, averaging a career-high 96.1 mph (up from 95.0 last season), while throwing a mix of curveballs, with the occasional cutter and changeup. With a career-high 32.3 percent strikeout backed by a 13.8 percent swinging-strike rate, Morton is once again flashing skills that could lead him to finish among the top-20 starting pitchers in 2018, well ahead of his NFBC ADP (168).

Blake Parker, RP, LAA -- Angels closer Keynan Middleton had an MRI on his elbow Monday, which revealed damage to his UCL. While he'll have a second opinion, a lengthy DL stint seems imminent, and Tommy John surgery is likely on the table. Parker was dropped in many leagues when Middleton initially took over the ninth-inning role in April, as he appeared to lose the trust of manager Mike Scioscia. However, Parker and hard-throwing righty Justin Anderson (who picked up the save with a few hiccups Monday night), are better suited to close out games than Jim Johnson (#NeverJimJohnson). Jose Alvarez and Cam Bedrosian are too, for that matter, but Alvarez is currently the team's only lefty in the bullpen. A speculative add of Parker is little more than a guess that his recent turnaround can put him back into Scioscia's good graces again, as he's carried a 1.86 ERA and 1.14 WHIP along with a 9.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over his last 14 appearances -- dating back to his only multi-run performance of the season April 7 against the A''s.

Franmil Reyes, OF, SD -- Reyes quietly hit 14 homers in his first 36 games at Triple-A El Paso to begin 2018, and he did it with reasonably limited fanfare. Wil Myers isn't close to returning from an oblique injury, leaving Reyes to battle Travis Jankowski for playing time over the next few weeks. Reyes has been young for his level at every stop, but the big power display as a 22-year-old in the Pacific Coast League is particularly impressive when you consider that he was doing it with a 20.1% K%. The Padres penciled him into the No. 6 spot for his first career start against Rockies lefty Tyler Anderson on Monday, and while a straight platoon is possible with Reyes and Jankowski, he offers the game-changing power necessary to become an immediate consideration for power-deficient rosters in leagues with 12 or more teams.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN -- Since returning from the DL on April 26, Suarez has put together a .299/.355/.552 line with four homers, 21 RBI and 11 runs scored in 17 games. For the season, he's nudged his HR/FB rate to an even 20 percent -- up from 17.9% in 2017 -- while cutting his strikeout rate to a career-low 17.4% K%. The strikeout rate drop appears to be connected to a more aggressive approach, as Suarez has swung at pitches in the zone at a career-high 73.2% rate, making contact on those pitches more than 90 percent of the time (also a career best). The Reds gave Suarez a long-term contract extension earlier this spring, making him a part of their plans despite the presence of Nick Senzel at Triple-A, who will likely continue his development as a middle infielder once he's cleared to return from the minor-league DL following his second career issue with vertigo. On draft day, Suarez looked like the last passable option for those waiting on a third baseman, but now, he looks like a potential top-100 overall player.

Andrelton Simmons, SS, LAA -- Lost somewhat in the hype Didi Gregorius was garnering in April, is the major step forward at the plate from Simmons to begin 2018. With a career 9.1% K%, we might be taking his early improvement (5.7% K% in 2018) for granted. More importantly, he's slashing career bests across the board, with a .338/.405/.500 line that includes three homers, 23 RBI, 25 runs and four steals. The Angels rarely give Simmons a day off because his glove is extremely valuable, plus, the improved quality of the lineup around him in Anaheim can bolster his counting stats to career-high levels. Simmons has hit fifth for sixth in the order for the Halos while starting all but one game since April 24. For the second straight season, Simmons' pull rate has increased (currently 48.5%), and the result has been a sustained uptick in hard contact, which has peaked at 38.1% this season (career 26.3%, 29.2% in 2017). A slight uptick in home-run output might be on the horizon.

Fallers

Rhys Hoskins, OF/1B, PHI -- The 50-game debut from Hoskins in 2017 set the bar extremely high, as he hit .259/.396/.618 with 18 homers in 212 plate appearances to begin his big-league career. Tuesday will mark his 40th game of 2018, and his .268/.414/.472 line somehow feels disappointing, mostly because of that final number. His current pace would leave him with 20 homers, 100 RBI, 88 runs, and 12 SB, with a good average and an excellent OBP, so he's only a slight disappointment -- if he's even a disappointment at all, but his strikeout rate has jumped to 29.0% in 2018, giving him a 24.9% mark through 374 plate appearances since his debut.

The increase in whiffs and the slight lag with his home-run production are the reasons he's listed as a faller in this week's column, but there are some underlying positives in his profile, including an increased flyball rate (up from 45.2 to 52.4%) and a slightly less pull-happy approach (42.7% pull rate, down from 49.2%). The scouting report on Hoskins right now is steering pitchers away from throwing him fastballs, as he's whiffing more than 30 percent of the time on breaking pitches and off-speed offerings.

I have no aversion to buying Hoskins in situations where there is a willing seller, and I am curious if you prefer Hoskins or Paul Goldschmidt for the rest of 2018. (Let me know in the comments section below.)

Jose Quintana, SP, CHC -- Quintana has lost more than a mile-per-hour on his four-seam fastball to begin 2018. Opposing hitters have teed off on that pitch, as he's allowed a .306 BAA and .516 SLG thus far (his xStats show that things could be worse: .329 xBA, .541 xSLG). An altered pitch mix might be crucial to his chances of turning things around, as Quintana's changeup was his second best pitch in terms of whiffs last season (27.6%) and it has been his best pitch in 2018 (31.0% whiff rate), while being his least utilized offering (9-10 percent usage) both in 2017 and 2018. The other big issue is that he's walked more batters than ever (4.6 BB/9, 11.2% BB%; career 2.5 BB/9, 6.6% BB%), as his chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone has bottomed out at a career-worst 21.9%. The team context as far as run support and the bullpen tasked with protecting his leads remains favorable, but that appears to be the main reason to buy, as the bounce back could be closer to his overall 2017 numbers than his results following the trade to the Cubs last summer.

Jose Berrios, SP, MIN -- Striking out four batters over three starts (14.1 innings) is one of the quickest paths to this space. Berrios has allowed four or more runs in each of his last four starts entering Tuesday's home start against the Cardinals. He was excellent in three of his first four starts this season, firing seven or more scoreless frames and carrying a 29:1 K:BB in 27.2 innings prior to his recent slide. There isn't a noticeable drop in his velocity behind this disappointing stretch, nor is there an almaring dip in the spin rate on his pitches, which eases the concern about a possible arm injury. Of the cluster of young starters he was lumped in with on draft day, a group that also included Luis Castillo and Luke Weaver, Berrios is still my preferred option from the group the rest of the way.

Ryan Braun, OF/1B, MIL -- Braun was a late scratch from the lineup Monday due to mid-back tightness, and while he's currently on pace to play 140 games, it seems unlikely that he'll reach that total for the second time in six seasons as his strikeout rate has jumped (from 17.9% to 23.2%), his walk rate has dipped (from 8.9% to 6.5%) and his xwOBA currently sits at a four-year low (.331). Fortunately, he's still making a lot of hard contact (the underlying numbers point to some bad luck, particularly on fastballs), but the increasing rate of minor injuries and the step back in offensive production will become more problematic for Braun if Eric Thames eventually moves into the outfield mix after his return from the DL with Jesus Aguilar handling first base capably in his absence.

Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK -- I wrote about Chapman as an early-season riser after he flashed some initial plate discipline numbers that pointed at potential growth. While he is still chasing fewer pitches outside the strike zone, and he has lowered his swinging-strike rate from 11.5% last season to 8.6% in 2018, Chapman's profile is shaping up to more closely resemble his 2017 numbers than I had hoped, most notably with his strikeout rate (27.1% K%). There may be slightly less batting average downside than previously feared, but Chapman has fallen back near the pack of replacement-level third-base options in small and mid-ranged mixed leagues.

Hector Neris, RP, PHI -- Neris had a pair of saves last week, but the Phillies used Edubray Ramos in a situation where Neris should have been available Sunday, prompting manager Gabe Kapler's post-game reminder that he intends to use relievers other than Neris to finish up games. It's also concerning that Neris' walk rate has swelled to a career-worst 5.2 BB/9, while his average fastball velocity is down nearly a full mile-per-hour from last season (93.8 mph in 2018). He'll still be rosterable and a regular fixture in active lineups if he's entrusted with 50-75 percent of the Phillies' save chances, but it will be very interesting to see if he's able to top the 26 saves he posted a year ago even with the benefit of having eight already on the ledger thus far.