Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The Cubs have struggled with production at third base in recent years and may not have listed a true second baseman since Ryne Sandberg, whose number was just retired. Matt Shaw could end up slotting into either spot as he's played about two-thirds of his games at third and the rest at second at Double-A. After a rough start to 2024 at the dish, the 13th selection in last year's Draft finally appears to be hitting his stride as he's slashing .274/.365/.521 with five homers and five stolen bases - which includes Sunday's two-homer, five RBI performance. Chicago could be looking at quite the youth movement as early as next season with Shaw, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie, James Triantos, Moises Ballesteros, Kevin Alcantara and Brennen Davis all potentially ready to receive regular time. With all that talent near the top of the minors, it's no wonder the Cubs' system is currently considered one of the best in baseball.

Let's take a look at some other prospects making waves in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Quinn Mathews, P, STL – Mathews was briefly mentioned in a previous article, but his continued ascension deserves more ink. A fourth-round pick out of Stanford in 2023, he's already heading to his third different level this year. The opposition proved no match for Mathews at Low-A as the polished collegian sported a 1.47 ERA and 52:11 K:BB in 30.2 innings. That resulted in a quick promotion to High-A, where he was nearly as impressive with a 2.68 ERA and 58:9 K:BB over 43.2 frames with opposing batters going .160 against. The 23-year-old southpaw boasts superb strikeout stuff while inducing more than the average amount of ground balls. Mathews has notched 110 strikeouts, which leads the entire minors. While Double-A will be a much better litmus test for his future path, it's clear he's vastly improved his stock thanks to an increase in velocity.

Colby Thomas, OF, OAK – Thomas displayed an intriguing power/speed combination coming out of college, yet there were questions as to whether he could hit for average as a pro coming out of a smaller school (Mercer). Since being drafted in 2022, that has decidedly not been the case as he's hit at least .282 at every level. Thomas continued to flash his other tools with 18 home runs and 25 steals in 2023 at A-ball. And he's well on his way to a 20-20 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A. Perhaps most importantly, Thomas has cut down on his strikeouts as he fanned 146 times in 126 games a year ago with only 51 so far this season. He'll never be known as the most patient hitter at the dish, but his surprisingly ability to hit for average along with his other fairly loud tools makes him a prospect to watch, especially so close to the big leagues with a club struggling to field a competitive squad.

Felnin Celesten, SS, SEA – Celesten has been tormenting opposing pitching in the Arizona Complex League. At only 18, the switch-hitting shortstop is slashing .341/.423/.561 through 31 outings. At 6'1", 175, Celestin has the frame to fill out and develop even more power, yet he's already produced 17 extra-base hits alongside five stolen bases. Though Colt Emerson and Cole Young appear ahead of him on Seattle's minor league depth chart, Celesten could offer the highest upside of the three. Now may be the time to scoop him up in dynasty leagues before he becomes more mainstream.

Travis Sykora, P, WAS – Sykora has been brought along slowly by the Nationals after being signed away from his commitment to the University of Texas last year. The early results have been promising as the former prep pitcher has registered a 3.26 ERA and 40:11 K:BB from 30.1 innings at Low-A with hitters only going .194 against with a combined two homers. The 6'6" righty can reach triple-digits on the radar gun and his slider/split combination rounds out an already effective arsenal. Sykora is a ways away from making a big-league impact, though he has the size and raw stuff that projects as a future frontline rotation anchor.

CHECK STATUS

Yoniel Curet, P, TB – Curet's strikeout stuff is obvious, but perhaps he doesn't even know where the ball is going at times. Curet fanned 144 batters last season in A-ball, though also walked 73.  That trend has largely continued with a 71:36 K:BB in 61.1 innings at High-A. The opposition is hitting .206 against the 21-year-old righty, yet the extra walks haven't been as easy to shake as the 4.55 ERA through 14 starts shows. Curet throws hard while utilizing largely an electric fastball with movement and the occasional slider. He could be destined for the bullpen if he can't harness his command, but that may also be an option if he won't be able to develop a third (or even consistent second) pitch. Curet will remain in the starting rotation for now and his upside is tantalizing, though the jury is still out on his future role.

Jared Karros, P, LAD – The son of former Dodger first baseman Eric Karros, Jared instead took his talents to the mound. Standing at 6'7", he fell to the 16th round coming out of UCLA due to a combination of COVID and injury, yet he's already exceeded expectations. Karros dominated in seven starts at High-A to begin the season by posting a 1.59 ERA and 36:7 K:BB across 34 innings. He was subsequently promoted to Double-A, where he's been slightly more hittable through five outings. Karros uses four pitches while his height and extension makes his fastball a lot closer - and significantly faster - to the hitters. He should be gaining more notoriety in the coming months. (Sidenote: did you know he has a younger brother, Kyle Karros, who plays third base in the Rockies organization? Baseball is most certainly a family affair.)

DOWNGRADE

Orelvis Martinez, SS, TOR – Martinez has had quite the rollercoaster of a week. Only two days after making his big-league debut, he was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for a banned substance. The 22-year-old finally looked to be putting it all together by slashing .260/.343/.523 with 16 home runs and 46 RBI across 63 appearances at Triple-A prior to the promotion. Martinez will miss pretty much the remainder of 2024, and one can't help but wonder if the performance enhancer played a role in his improved production.

Robert Gasser, P, MIL – Gasser needs Tommy John surgery, meaning that he'll be out for the rest of the season and perhaps all of 2025. The southpaw had done quite well with the Brewers prior to the injury as he recorded a 2.57 ERA and 16:1 K:BB in 28 innings. Oddly enough, Gasser's command improved in the Majors, though his strikeout rate plummeted. Otherwise, he had been a high-K, high-walk hurler after coming over from the San Diego as part of the Josh Hader deal. Unfortunately, Milwaukee will have to wait a while for Gasser to get back on the mound.