Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Pirates and Tigers and Brewers, oh my! These squads have started the season undefeated with key contributions from prospects. Pittsburgh's Jared Jones dazzled in his MLB debut by fanning 10 batters in a win over the Marlins. The Tigers are starting two rookies in Parker Meadows and Colt Keith to go along with their bright young core of Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Reese Olson and Tarik Skubal. The Brewers swept the Mets with uber-prospect Jackson Chourio going 5-for-13 to begin his Milwaukee career.

Let's take a look at some other neophytes who could soon be shining in the big leagues.

UPGRADE

Paul Skenes, P, PIT – Skenes doesn't appear destined for the minors for very long. He only pitched 6.2 innings last year as a professional after being drafted out of LSU and tossed three perfect frame in his 2024 debut at Triple-A where he struck out five of the nine batters he faced. Skenes offers a triple-digit heater, nasty slider and an emerging changeup that could also be special. The only question now is when - not if - he'll reach the big leagues this season. Jared Jones has started well and the Pirates are off to a stunning 5-0 start, though Skenes should eventually be the ace.

James Wood, OF, WAS – Wood batted .364 (16-for-44) with four homers, three steals and an 11:13 BB:K this spring, where he was then assigned to Triple-A instead of back to Double-A where he finished 2023. He's gone 4-for-10 through three games with five walks and three strikeouts. Wood's high K rate and lack of contact at Double-A should be viewed as more of an aberration than a red flag in my opinion as he drew far more free passes in previous seasons. He remains a top-flight phenom and is still only 21.

Owen Caissie, OF, CHC – Caissie showed plenty of pop last year with 22 homers in 120 games at Double-A, but his ability to work the count is underrated. He may have struck out a lot (164 times, to be exact), yet still went .289. Caissie also picked up 76 walks en route to a near .400 OBP. He's a blistering 7-for-12 (.583) to begin 2024 campaign at Triple-A. Pete Crow-Armstrong gets more pub in the system, though Caissie should be getting more appreciation.

Coby Mayo, 3B, BAL – The Orioles are already the favorites in the AL East, and they have an incredible problem with even more prospects on the way. The only impediment for Mayo is that Baltimore already use a bevy of infield/hitting prospects. So despite slashing .326/.426/.544 this spring, he begins the campaign at Triple-A. Mayo has already homered and could be an injury or trade away from seeing everyday playing time for the big club. If not for the presence of Jackson Holliday, he'd be the organization's top prospect.

CHECK STATUS

Junior Caminero, 3B, TB – Caminero could have made the Rays out of spring training, but Tampa chose to be conservative and instead gave some older players a chance. He was off to a fast start at Triple-A the first three games of the season going 4-for-12 with one home run, two RBI and one steal. However, Caminero left Sunday with a left quad injury, the severity which has yet to be determined. Any stint on the Injured List will obviously delay his eventual debut in the bigss.  Caminero remains an elite phenom, though his status needs to be monitored.

Chase DeLauter, OF, CLE – DeLauter's stock has been skyrocketing since he returned from foot issues in the middle of last year. He followed up a stellar 57-game stretch across three levels in 2023 with a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League and hit .500 in spring training with four homers and more walks than strikeouts. DeLauter's injury history and lack of at-bats above High-A are likely the only things standing in the way of an MLB premiere early this season.

Jordan Beck, OF, COL – Beck is off to a hot start at Triple-A Albuquerque as he's batted 5-for-12 (.417) with two home runs and six RBI through three outings. He's a powerful prospect who clubbed 20 homers in 76 games at High-A last season before logging another 50 at Double-A. Beck has a lot of swing and miss in his profile as he fanned 142 times. He also isn't afraid to take a walk while playing his future games at Coors Field helps his profile. Beck is currently a little undervalued right now, especially with the struggles of Colorado developing prospects the last few years.

Jack Leiter, P, TEX – If not for his name and draft position, Leiter would already have been largely a forgotten prospect. He will turn 24 this month and lists a lifetime 5.30 ERA in the minors.  However, the Rangers can still exercise some level of patience with Leiter despite his lack of success thus far. He was solid in his first start at Triple-A, where he gave up two runs on two hits across five innings while striking out nine batters and not walking anyone. Free passes have hurt Leiter during his professional career, so an improvement in that category would go a long way towards changing his career trajectory.

DOWNGRADE

Addison Barger, OF, TOR – Barger posted a .929 OPS this spring, but was still sent down to Triple-A. His biggest issue is his lack of a defensive position, though he also strikes out a bit too much, didn't hit for average in 2023, and missed time due to an elbow injury. A left-handed bat is helpful here, yet Barger is already 24 and it remains to be seen if he has a future role in Toronto. While a team can never have too much offense, he could be traded if the Blue Jays need a starter or bullpen help later on in the season.

Colson Montgomery, 3B/SS, CHW – Montgomery may end up being a better real life player than fantasy producer. He missed the first three months last year due to oblique and back injuries. Montgomery's greatest asset is his plate discipline with 56 walks and 56 strikeouts in 64 games across three levels. He also makes consistent contact and projects to hit for average, though only registered eight homers and two steals. Montgomery has gone 2-for-12 to begin the season at Triple-A. He could see the Majors later this year, but it would be unwise to expect elite-level fantasy production despite his status as the White Sox' No. 1 prospect.