Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The floodgates may soon start to open in terms of prospect promotions. The minor league season begins next week, but phenoms are already making their way to the big leagues en masse. Luis Patino pitched for the Rays on Sunday as an opener and hurled 2.2 scoreless innings while fanning three batters. Michael Kopech dazzled for the White Sox Sunday in a surprisingly long outing by punching out 10 batters over five innings. He had previously been relegated to the bullpen, but shined in his first start of the year. And Deivi Garcia got his first start for the Yankees on Monday.  All three hurlers are among the top pitching prospects in baseball, while names like Logan Gilbert, Nate Pearson and Daulton Jefferies could soon be joining the fray for their respective clubs.

As we round out the first month of Major League action, here are some additional neophytes to keep tabs on.

UPGRADE

Ryan Weathers, P, SD – The question repeated during the spring was whether MacKenzie Gore would make the starting rotation, or at the very least be kept as a reliever on the active roster. The Padres instead retained Weathers, a high draft pick and the son of former big leaguer David. After all, it was he who pitched in the postseason in 2020. The Padres even went to a six-man rotation recently, and Weathers delivered an inspiring start and tossed 5.2 scoreless innings against the defending champion Dodgers while only allowing one hit and walking one batter while fanning six. On the season, he's posted a 0.59 ERA and 16:5 K:BB in 15.1 innings. Gore may get the pub, but it has been Weathers who has been relied upon by the Padres so far during his brief professional career. With Dinelson Lamet and Adrian Morejon both injured, Weathers will retain a starting role even if the Padres drop the rotation back to five.

Nick Gonzales, 2B, PIT – The Pirates are in full rebuilding mode, but the home run on Opening Day from Ke'Bryan Hayes prior to an unlucky injury should give Pittsburgh some hope they may actually be developing some prospects for the future after all. Gonzales is also expected to be a special offensive player, as he can really handle the bat, offers superb plate discipline as well as some pop. He also has above-average speed, though stolen bases have not been a huge part of his arsenal in the past. Still, Gonzales has the chance to join Hayes in a future infield for the Pirates that is suddenly not looking half bad.

Hedbert Perez, OF, MIL – Perez is already garnering some hype, but he could be a really special player. He was the youngest player invited to the team's alternate training site in 2020 and is equal parts talented and polished, especially for a teenager. Perez also displays a smooth left-handed swing and projects to hit for both average and power with above-average speed. Arguably the top prospect for the Brewers at 18, he is a helium-type prospect who could fly up the rankings akin to Wander Franco, Marco Luciano and other J-2 signees. Now might be the time to invest in Perez before his rapid ascension.

Simeon Woods Richardson, P, TOR – As far as Blue Jays pitching prospects go, Woods-Richardson gets much less publicity than Nate Pearson or Alek Manoah. Pearson can hit 100 on the radar gun, while Manoah is an imposing figure at 6-6, 260 and produced a standout spring training.  Meanwhile, Woods-Richardson has kept humming along slightly under the radar. Not even 21 yet, he boasts four pitches and throws strikes. Woods-Richardson offers exceptional polish for his age, and his fastball has life up in the zone making up for the fact he will never throw as hard as Pearson. While Pearson and Manoah will likely see the big leagues first, the back end of the Blue Jays rotation is in shambles right now, so Woods-Richardson could just be a few short months away from seeing the big leagues.

CHECK STATUS

Masyn Winn, SS/P, STL – Shohei Ohtani's ability to both pitch and hit in the majors is a marvel, yet often goes underappreciated. Other prospects have tried the feat, but usually end up focusing on one position or the other. Hunter Greene was drafted as a possible two-way player, but is now exclusively a pitcher. Brendan McKay started out as a pitcher for the Rays after struggling with the bat, only to reverse course following shoulder surgery. The point is that it's difficult enough to become a major leaguer, let alone thrive and succeed at two distinct jobs. Winn is the next prospect in line to take a stab at both. He's an exceptional athlete with a lights-out upper 90's fastball, a superb breaking ball and a promising changeup. Winn's athleticism yields to plus base running and plenty of power, although his plate discipline leaves a bit to be desired. If he focuses on one or the other, Winn could still become an elite player; it's just even more challenging to succeed at both.

Cory Abbott, P, CHC – The back end of the Cubs' rotation is questionable with Trevor Williams and Adbert Alzolay struggling early on in 2021. While Alec Mills would likely be the first available option should the Cubbies decide to make a quick change, Abbott is also an intriguing name to watch. He lacks notoriety due to a mediocre fastball, but he makes up for it with stellar command and the ability to mix four pitches. Abbott was the Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2019 performing at the alternate site last year and was protected from the Rule 5 draft in November. As a result, he certainly appears to figure into the Cubs' future plans, and at 25 has little left to prove in the minors.

Slade Cecconi, P, ARI – The University of Miami product has filthy stuff, most notably a lethal fastball/slider combination while a curveball and changeup are emerging pitches. Cecconi was not known for his command at Miami, though he's bulked up and was impressive at the alternate site in 2020. However, he suffered a minor wrist injury to his non-throwing side, and as a result his professional debut will be delayed. Cecconi has the opportunity to be a frontline starter for the Diamondbacks, but he has to prove he can stay healthy and throws strikes for that to happen.

Jordan Balazovic, P, MIN – Balazovic is arguably the top pitching prospect for the Twinkies, as he pounds the zone and effectively uses his heater. He also has an ideal frame for a starting pitcher at 6-4, 220. That being said, none of his secondary pitches are better than average. As a result, it remains to be seen if Balazovic will be able to stick in the rotation with essentially only one above-average pitch, so a move to the bullpen still may end up being in the cards. He could be a dominant reliever, but that would certainly limit his fantasy value.

DOWNGRADE

Jeremy Pena, SS, HOU – The top hitting prospect for the Astros, Pena will be forced to undergo wrist surgery and miss a few months. He started off as a glove-first prospect, but has proven he can hit during his brief forays in the minors. Pena appears to have more line drive power than home run clout, although he still could get to double-digit home runs. He also carries above-average speed, so thefts should be part of his repertoire. However, Pena is already 23 and not expected back until late this summer. Carlos Correa is a free agent at the end of the year, so it's possible Pena could vie for the starting shortstop job in 2022 if he can succeed upon his return.

Zach McKinstry, 2B/OF, LAD – McKinstry has been a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers by slashing .298/.328/.556 with three home runs and 14 RBI through 17 games. He has filled in at various positions while several Dodgers regulars nursed injuries. Unfortunately, McKinstry suffered a strained oblique muscle and has been placed on the IL and it's believed he won't be back after the minimum 10 days. Fellow prospect DJ Peters - previously profiled in a past article - was recalled in a corresponding move boasting power but also striking out a lot and has gone 0-for-5 to begin his big league career.

Peyton Burdick, OF, MIA – This downgrade is less about Burdick's skill set and more about similar players on the organizational depth chart. JJ Bleday is the Marlins' clear-cut top outfield prospect and will see the big leagues before Burdick. Kameron Misner was the 35th overall selection in the 2019 Draft, while Burdick was selected at 82. Burdick is older than both of the aforementioned outfielders while Jesus Sanchez and Monte Harrison are also lurking. The Marlins' entire outfield for 2022 is up in the air, but Burdick has logged few professional at-bats due to the pandemic and his weakest asset is his hit tool. Perhaps more than any of the other outfielders in this system, he will have been hurt by the lack of in-game reps at the higher levels. At 24, Burdick will need to show he is capable when the season starts - and fast - or risk being left in the dust.