Welcome to a list of guys who will be hurt or demoted by June.
I kid, of course, but if you read this piece in last year's edition of the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball magazine, well, thanks for reading it again. While I pegged Rafael Devers as a pick and Craig Kimbrel as a pan, the lists were among the weakest in the decade I've been writing this article. I'm inclined to blame the late offseason a year ago, in which so much playing time and context was unknown as late as the new year. Really, though, I just made some bad calls. Time to get up, knock the dirt off and do better.
OVERPERFORMERS
Here are my fantasy picks -- guys who will outperform their preseason ADPs and auction values in 2020.
Kolby Allard - P, RANGERS
Traded from Atlanta at last year's deadline, the 14th pick of the 2015 draft gets to Texas just in time for the new, more pitcher-friendly ballpark to open. Allard doesn't blow you away with his fastball, which sits 93, but his cutter and changeup both work and give him options against opposite-handed batters. The Rangers' additions of Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles complicate Allard's path early in the season, but the lefty should be the first guy in line once someone gets hurt or knocked around.
Franchy Cordero - OF, PADRES
Cordero had a moment back in 2017, blowing up Statcast with his exceptional speed and power. Unfortunately, he has
Welcome to a list of guys who will be hurt or demoted by June.
I kid, of course, but if you read this piece in last year's edition of the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball magazine, well, thanks for reading it again. While I pegged Rafael Devers as a pick and Craig Kimbrel as a pan, the lists were among the weakest in the decade I've been writing this article. I'm inclined to blame the late offseason a year ago, in which so much playing time and context was unknown as late as the new year. Really, though, I just made some bad calls. Time to get up, knock the dirt off and do better.
OVERPERFORMERS
Here are my fantasy picks -- guys who will outperform their preseason ADPs and auction values in 2020.
Kolby Allard - P, RANGERS
Traded from Atlanta at last year's deadline, the 14th pick of the 2015 draft gets to Texas just in time for the new, more pitcher-friendly ballpark to open. Allard doesn't blow you away with his fastball, which sits 93, but his cutter and changeup both work and give him options against opposite-handed batters. The Rangers' additions of Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles complicate Allard's path early in the season, but the lefty should be the first guy in line once someone gets hurt or knocked around.
Franchy Cordero - OF, PADRES
Cordero had a moment back in 2017, blowing up Statcast with his exceptional speed and power. Unfortunately, he has been limited to 270 PA the last two years around a series of injuries, mostly to his right elbow and forearm. There's still a ton of raw talent here, as Cordero showed in the Dominican Winter League, hitting .364 in a handful of games. Cordero is capable of having Richard Hidalgo's peak if he can stay on the field.
Clint Frazier - OF, YANKEES
A bit of a forgotten man, with injuries, poor defense and trade acquisitions getting in his way in the Bronx. With Aaron Hicks out for the season's first half, there could be one last opportunity here for Frazier. The hope, though, is that the Yankees offload him in a deal that opens up an everyday job for him somewhere. Despite sporadic playing time, Frazier is a career 102 OPS+ hitter in the majors, and slugged .489 last year in 69 games. Turned loose, he could hit .290 with 30 homers and strong context stats.
Ian Happ - OF, CUBS
In about two full seasons of playing time over three years, Happ has hit .246 with a .340 OBP, 50 homers and 18 steals, usually as a turn-to option when other players were hurt, suspended or both. The Cubs are down Ben Zobrist and Addison Russell, and may choose to trade Kris Bryant, creating playing time for Happ, who is still just 25 years old. He'll start 2020 with just outfield eligibility in most leagues, but by the end of May should pick up second and maybe third base as well. There's even some stolen-base upside if new manager David Ross wants to run more than Joe Maddon did.
Chris Martin - RP, BRAVES
Brian Snitker can be very jumpy about his closer, tending to run away from even veteran pitchers who string together back-to-back shaky outings. So while Mark Melancon is the nominal saves guy here, Martin stands out as the best right-handed option for the bulk of the season. Since returning from two years in Japan, he has struck out 102 batters and walked just eight unintentionally, and he finished last year in Atlanta with a 22:1 K:BB. He's also the hardest thrower among the righties. Martin will help your ratios from Opening Day, and could nab 15-20 saves by the end of the season.
Lance McCullers - SP, ASTROS
There's a category of guys we forget about because they take a year off due to injury. McCullers, the 2017 postseason hero, tops this list. The small right-hander lost last season to Tommy John surgery, but with Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley gone, his rotation job is waiting for him. Even at a lower innings count, McCullers will provide good strikeout numbers, and the Astros' strong offense and bullpen make even a five-inning starter a threat for wins. Also on this list: Michael Kopech of the White Sox and the Rays' Brent Honeywell. Beat your opponents who create their lists off 2019 stats.
Jurickson Profar - 2B, PADRES
Once the game's top prospect, Profar is on his third team in three years. The good news is that he has a clear path to the Pads' second-base job after the trade of Luis Urias. Profar hit .218 last year, thanks to the lowest BABIP (also .218) of any player in baseball. It was a loud .218, though: 20 homers, nine steals, 48 walks. Profar's quality of contact should have yielded a BA 30 points higher. The bigger concern is the yips that hit him at midseason in Oakland. If he can put those behind him, Profar should be a top-10 fantasy second baseman.
Noah Syndergaard - SP, METS
We're prepared for Thor to be a god, and we're prepared for him to be unavailable. I'm not sure anyone was prepared for him to just be...there. Syndergaard, while still showing the raw stuff that makes him must-watch TV, was just an ordinary mid-rotation starter last year: 4.28 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 202 strikeouts. No pitcher in the NL allowed more runs last year. Jacob deGrom has lapped Syndergaard in fame and fortune, but if I had to pick a Mets starter to win the 2020 NL Cy Young Award, I'd still take the guy who can throw a 91-mph changeup and a 90-mph slider.
Kyle Tucker - OF, ASTROS
The Astros signed Josh Reddick three years ago and Michael Brantley last year, then had Yordan Alvarez lay waste to the minors on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year Award. Against that backdrop, Tucker has been a top-15 prospect who now has 1,000 career PA in the Paci c Coast League. That the Astros put Tucker on the playoff roster, and even gave him two starts, is a strong sign that one way or another, he'll be a key part of the 2020 lineup. It's hardly a stretch to think he could drive in 120 runs batting behind all the high-OBP teammates he'll have.
Jose Urquidy - SP, ASTROS
Speaking of trusted young Astros, Urquidy got an ALCS start in Yankee Stadium, and rewarded the decision with five shutout innings in a key win. Like McCullers, Urquidy is working back from Tommy John surgery, having missed all of 2017. Three years past it, he's ready to take on a starter's workload and with a true four-pitch mix -- including a great changeup -- step into the No. 4 starter slot on the best team in the division.
UNDERPERFORMERS
On the flip side, here's who I'm staying away from this season.
CLOSERS
All of 'em. Every one. I have come full circle on this, having once committed no draft/auction resources to saves for years, then taking Blake Treinen early in the 2019 Mixed LABR draft. Treinen and fellow top closer Edwin Diaz imploded. Kenley Jansen continued his decline. Some closers, like Brad Hand and Aroldis Chapman, held up, but the group as a whole was a loser. I'll be patient and wait on the 2020 versions of Alex Colome, Taylor Rogers and Liam Hendriks.
Shohei Ohtani - DH/SP, ANGELS
There's just too much uncertainty over what Ohtani will be to invest in him, especially with his price being so inflated by the cool factor. As a rookie, Ohtani was handled with kid gloves by the Angels, limiting his impact as both a pitcher and a hitter. That's not likely to change as Ohtani returns to the mound in 2020. Throw in DH/UT-only eligibility as a hitter, and the juice isn't worth the squeeze, at least this year.
Mike Soroka - SP, BRAVES
The breakout star from a group of talented young pitchers, Soroka showed little evidence of the shoulder problems that were a concern in 2018. But for 53 homers, Soroka would have been Rookie of the Year. The thing is, few pitchers were as fortunate on contact as Soroka was; both his .280 BABIP and 11% HR/FB rate will be hard to replicate. One guy in 50 like this is Kyle Hendricks, and there's some chance that Soroka is next, but I expect significant regression in 2020, perhaps to the tune of two runs of ERA.
Yoan Moncada & Tim Anderson - IF, WHITE SOX
Two of the three highest BABIPs this century were produced by the 2019 Sox infield. Moncada's breakout season featured a .406 BABIP, the highest since Rod Carew in 1977 (.408). Anderson wasn't far behind at .399 on his way to a batting title. As much as I like to watch both players, I wouldn't touch either with a 10-foot pole in 2020. They're going to hit 30 points lower just by accident, and maybe 50.
This article appears in the 2020 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.
