After looking at plate discipline standouts, specifically some of the league's most aggressive and most patient hitters, we'll move this week onto players with extreme contact- or power-oriented profiles. For contact hitters, we'll focus on a player's zone contact rate, which measures how often they make contact when they swing at pitches in the strike zone. Many of the best hitters often boast higher contact rates, both in the zone and overall, though that doesn't always translate to fantasy impact. For power hitters, we'll focus on players who post high exit velocity numbers, especially while hitting the ball at an optimal launch angle.
Which players make tons of contact? And which players crush the baseball? Let's examine a few players whose contact rates and exit velocities make them top targets for your next fantasy draft.
Contact Hitters
Notable hitters at the top of the zone contact rate leaderboard include Nick Madrigal, Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, Michael Brantley and Nico Hoerner. In total, eight hitters finished with a zone contact rate of 95 percent or higher last season (after rounding). The visual below shows last year's top 15 hitters by zone contact rate, with a minimum of 50 plate appearances.
For context, the league average for zone contact sat at 85.4 percent in 2023. Theoretically, hitters with high zone contact rates should provide batting averages, helping fantasy teams out in at least one category.
Here, we'll discuss Vaughn Grissom and Ke'Bryan Hayes, who finished outside the
After looking at plate discipline standouts, specifically some of the league's most aggressive and most patient hitters, we'll move this week onto players with extreme contact- or power-oriented profiles. For contact hitters, we'll focus on a player's zone contact rate, which measures how often they make contact when they swing at pitches in the strike zone. Many of the best hitters often boast higher contact rates, both in the zone and overall, though that doesn't always translate to fantasy impact. For power hitters, we'll focus on players who post high exit velocity numbers, especially while hitting the ball at an optimal launch angle.
Which players make tons of contact? And which players crush the baseball? Let's examine a few players whose contact rates and exit velocities make them top targets for your next fantasy draft.
Contact Hitters
Notable hitters at the top of the zone contact rate leaderboard include Nick Madrigal, Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, Michael Brantley and Nico Hoerner. In total, eight hitters finished with a zone contact rate of 95 percent or higher last season (after rounding). The visual below shows last year's top 15 hitters by zone contact rate, with a minimum of 50 plate appearances.
For context, the league average for zone contact sat at 85.4 percent in 2023. Theoretically, hitters with high zone contact rates should provide batting averages, helping fantasy teams out in at least one category.
Here, we'll discuss Vaughn Grissom and Ke'Bryan Hayes, who finished outside the above leaderboard but not by a wide margin. Among hitters with 50 plate appearances, Grissom ranked 25th in zone contact rate (92.8 percent) while Hayes ranked 29th (92.5 percent). Interestingly, Grissom chases outside the zone 39.6 percent of the time (473rd out of 543 qualified players), with Hayes at 33.3 percent (329th).
Vaughn Grissom, SS, Red Sox
Atlanta's decision to trade Vaughn Grissom to Boston will finally allow him to earn everyday playing time. Grissom comes in as shortstop-eligible but should quickly gain second base eligibility. The data over the past two seasons indicates Grissom is a good hitter. Over that stretch, 17 hitters had a 90 percent zone contact rate and a 70 percent swing rate. Grissom lands on that list, alongside quality hitters like Ty France, Jeff McNeil, Josh Naylor, Bo Bichette and Ozzie Albies.
In Grissom's short MLB sample of 236 plate appearances, he consistently boasted zone and overall contact rates around five or six percentage points above league average. He uses an aggressive approach, with a career 52.9 percent swing rate and a 74.4 percent zone swing percentage — also about five or six points above league average.
Grissom has average to below-average power. Thus, he might be more like McNeil and France than the others. Those mediocre power skills could translate into 12-15 home runs for Grissom, with his speed boosting his fantasy value. Over the past two seasons, the Red Sox ranked fifth (2022) and 10th (2023) in stolen-base opportunities, meaning Grissom should have the green light on the basepaths. Scoop up the contact-driven potential value of Grissom, who has an ADP of 245 over the past few weeks.
Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates
Ke'Bryan Hayes had the 29th-best zone contact rate last season (92.5 percent), and he did it while showing a patient approach, in contrast to Grissom. His 62.7 percent zone swing rate sat six percentage points below the league average, near hitters like Jake Cronenworth, Adley Rutschman and Yuli Gurriel. But while Hayes' hit tool has been a strength, his power output has been a concern.
As seen in the table above, however, Hayes' underlying power skills improved last season. Hayes boasts a 94.5 mph exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (86th among qualified hitters) and had a 101.6 mph EV50, a new metric which averages the exit velocity of the hardest 50 percent of a player's batted balls. In 2022, Hayes had a 93 mph exit velocity on flyball and liners (good for 133rd), while his EV50 came in at 102.3 mph (ranking 35th). His barrels per plate appearance also doubled last season, coming in at a slightly above-league average rate of 5.5 percent.
At the start of his big-league career, Hayes typically hit the ball hard but had a launch-angle problem, something he adjusted in 2023. It may take more time to see if the change was a blip or a permanent one, but his flyball rate increased by 10 percentage points to 39 percent, as seen above. There's also a good chance Hayes could pull the ball more, allowing him to tap into his pull-side power, leading to more exit velocity gains. If he can do that while holding onto his gains in launch angle, he could take another step forward.
If Hayes' power gains hold, he'll have a rare combination of power and speed for third base. It wouldn't be surprising if Hayes hit 20 home runs with 15 stolen bases and a .260-to-.270 batting average, given his above-average contact skills. Prioritize Hayes in a juicy range of third baseman, which includes Jake Burger, Hayes and Noelvi Marte.
Power Hitters
For our look at power hitters, we'll use barrels and maximum exit velocity, but we're particularly interested in hitters with high exit velocity metrics on flyballs and line drives. The league average in that category last year sat at 93 mph. Here's what the leaguewide batted-ball data on flyballs and liners looked like over the past seven years.
Besides EV on FB/LD, Baseball Savant has a new metric called EV50, which is the average of the hardest 50 percent of the player's batted balls. It tells us something similar to exit velocity but over a larger sample. The table below shows last year's leaders in EV50 alongside other exit velocity metrics:
The hitters in the above table tend to be some of the biggest names in the league and go very early in fantasy drafts. We lowered the threshold to 50 batted ball events to uncover some underrated names to identify power hitters to target.
Power Hitters to Target
Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds
One hitter I liked last year was Gunnar Henderson. Noelvi Marte fits a similar mold. Marte chases at a league-average rate while making above-average contact in the zone (88.5 percent). In his small 2023 sample, Marte averaged a 102.6 mph EV50 (ranked 52nd) and 94.5 mph EV on FB/LD (120th) out of 496 qualified hitters (min. 50 batted ball events). That indicates Marte should have a safe floor thanks to his plate discipline but also possesses the power to hit 25 or more home runs.
In the visual above, we're working with a small sample of monthly splits in August and September. Marte's contact quality should back up the rookie season production via the expected stats, even if we bake in some regression. One main issue is his high groundball rate, which limits Marte's power ceiling. It's a similar issue to Elly De La Cruz, who also crushes the ball but has a concerningly low average launch angle. We've seen young hitters overcome heavy groundball rates, so keep tabs on that throughout the season.
Riley Greene, OF, Tigers
My thoughts have been lukewarm on Riley Greene, especially given his team context. Besides the fact that the Tigers' home park hinders power, injuries took a toll in 2023 for Greene. However, Greene's power skills led me to look deeper. Greene ranked 34th in EV50, tying him with Adolis Garcia, Teoscar Hernandez and Joc Pederson. All four of those hitters have been known for crushing baseballs.
The visual above sorts the exit velocity leaderboard by lowest launch angle, showing that Greene's high contact quality is paired with groundball concerns. Among the 41 hitters with a 103 mph EV50, 96 mph EV on FB/LD, and a seven percent barrel per plate appearance rate, Greene has the third-lowest launch angle, ahead of Jesus Sanchez and Tommy Pham and right behind Soto. When he lifted the ball, however, he recorded a 96.2 mph EV on FB/LD, ranking tied for 27th with Jorge Soler.
There's a chance Greene consistently underproduces his power skills. However, the gap between his 32 expected home runs compared to 16 actual homers in his first two seasons shouldn't be as wide as it is. Keep tabs on Greene's injury recovery from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm in September 2023. That's his right elbow, which will possibly impact his power and contact skills to begin the season.
The market still highly values Greene's power and speed, as his ADP is around pick 175. Depending on your roster construction up to this point, Greene is worth the upside pick, especially in leagues with injured list spots in case he's delayed to begin 2024.
