Farm Futures: NL West Top 10s

This marks the first installment of this year's top-10 prospect rankings in each organization, starting with the teams in the National League West. These rankings will be updated throughout the season on RotoWire.com when players switch organizations, lose their rookie eligibility, or when a player's development dictates a change in where they are ranked within their team's system.

Please feel free to start a dialogue in the comments section below, or @RealJRAnderson on Twitter.

Players listed below include Rank, Name, Position, Age On 4/1/16, Projected Level For Start Of 2016

Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Braden Shipley, RHP, 24, Triple-A
2. Brandon Drury, 3B/2B, 23, Triple-A
3. Peter O'Brien, C/OF, 25, Triple-A
4. Jamie Westbrook, 2B, 20, Double-A
5. Archie Bradley, RHP, 23, Triple-A
6. Cody Reed, LHP, 19, Low-A
7. Socrates Brito, OF, 23, MLB
8. Yoan Lopez, RHP, 23, Double-A
9. Alex Young, LHP, 22, Low-A
10. Wei-Chieh Huang, RHP, 22, High-A

Overview:

This system looked exponentially better before the Diamondbacks gave up two of their top-three prospects (Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair) in the Shelby Miller trade, and then most recently Isan Diaz (who would have ranked sixth here) in the Jean Segura trade. The system is made up almost exclusively of buy-low options, and guys who burst onto the radar last year, and thus might be unowned going into dynasty league drafts this year. Drury, O'Brien and Brito could all get 200-plus plate appearances in the big leagues this year, and chances are one of those three will emerge as a mixed league option. Westbrook is one of the best pop-up prospects in the game, and is now a top-5 prospect at the keystone, so he should be drafted this year in dynasty leagues that roster 150-plus prospects. Bradley is a true post-hype sleeper, as he was never the same after getting hit by a comebacker last season, and the hope is that he can rediscover himself at Triple-A before joining the rotation sometime this summer. Reed, Lopez and Young form a trio of high-risk arms, with Reed having the fewest warts of the bunch.

Most Upside:Braden Shipley - The athletic 6-foot-3 righty is still learning how to pitch against upper-level hitting, so his lack of strikeouts in 2015 should not be a reason to hit the panic button. His K-rate dipped from 27 percent in 60.1 innings at High-A to 17.8 percent in 156.2 innings with Double-A Mobile last year. However, he still features a plus changeup, and a fastball and curveball that could get to plus with more refinement. He may never be a major WHIP asset, but he should be able to produce WHIPs in the 1.20-1.25 range in his peak seasons. His realistic floor is a No. 3 starter, with No. 2 ceiling if he starts missing bats in the manner that his arsenal should allow. After Arizona's starting pitching spree this offseason, Shipley may spend all of 2016 at Triple-A, but that wouldn't be the worst thing for his development. Oh, and chew on this for a while: Shipley compares similarly to Jacob deGrom, as an athletic righty with limited experience as a full-time starter and underwhelming minor league K-rates despite electric stuff.

Best Bet For 2016:Brandon Drury - The Diamondbacks will probably break camp with Chris Owings, Jake Lamb and Phil Gosselin as their short-term answers at second base and third base, but Drury might be better than all three of those guys. Eventually he will claim an everyday job, as he will be big league ready by May. The smart money's on him earning the starting job at the keystone, as his bat is very solid, but it might be average or a tick below at third, while it would be above average at second. Additionally, Lamb is a better bet to prove he belongs than Owings, who is getting his final chance to prove he is a regular for Arizona. Drury's upside is a .290 hitter with 15-homer pop and an approach that could allow him to fit nicely in the two-hole of a big league lineup. That probably won't happen this year, so he can be a watch list guy in most mixed leagues, but he should become worthy of ownership in 15-team leagues at some point this summer.

Colorado Rockies
1. David Dahl, OF, 22, Double-A
2. Ryan McMahon, 3B, 21, Double-A
3. Brendan Rodgers, SS, 19, Low-A
4. Forrest Wall, 2B, 20, High-A
5. Trevor Story, SS, 23, Triple-A
6. Raimel Tapia, OF, 22, Double-A
7. Jon Gray, RHP, 24, MLB
8. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, 23, Double-A
9. Wes Rogers, OF, 22, High-A
10. Tom Murphy, C, 24, MLB

Overview:

This is the second best real life system in the division, and it could challenge the Dodgers for the best system in all of baseball for dynasty league purposes. The biggest difference, perhaps, in ranking prospects for real life and fantasy is the massive gap in value for Rockies pitching prospects. For instance, if Gray were in a different organization, he would probably be a top-20 fantasy prospect in the game. However, in Colorado, he is not in the top-100. Similarly, Hoffman would be a top-50 prospect on another team, and he is well outside the top-100 as a member of the Rockies. Yes, it is that drastic of a downgrade, especially when factoring in that the Rockies are specifically trying to acquire pitchers, so any hope of Gray or Hoffman getting traded to a better situation seems misguided.

Fortunately, the Rockies are loaded with hitting prospects who could someday call Coors Field home, and while pitchers get downgraded, Rockies hitters get a bit of a bump in the dynasty league rankings. The top four players on this list are all top-10 prospects at their respective positions, with McMahon and Wall ranking as the second-best third base and second base prospects in the game, respectively. In addition to being loaded at the top, the Rockies boast a deep system, with Dom Nunez, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Jordan Patterson, Max White, Tyler Anderson and Jesus Tinoco all missing the list despite having value in deeper dynasty leagues.

Most Upside:Brendan Rodgers - There is no denying that Rodgers has the most fantasy upside of anyone selected in last year's draft. Ranking him as an overall prospect for dynasty leagues is tricky, however, because he has not played above rookie ball. He has an incredibly quick bat, and there is 30-plus homer potential down the road, but it is not yet clear what kind of hit tool he will show against upper-level pitching, or how quickly he will move through the Rockies system. His overall fantasy upside is similar to that of Dahl and McMahon, but Rodgers gets the nod because he offers that upside as a shortstop. It could look pretty silly to have him ranked third on this list in a couple years, but it is more of a vote of confidence for the two players ranked ahead of him, and an acknowledgement that there is more risk associated with Rodgers.

Best Bet For 2016:Trevor Story - Story should be drafted in single-season leagues that roster 350-plus players. The fact is, he's ready for the majors, and Jose Reyes and DJ LeMahieu are not as good as many think they are. Reyes was worth half a win in 116 games last year (according to Fangraphs WAR), while LeMahieu had a .694 OPS on the road, and ranked 22nd in WAR among second basemen, behind the likes of Cory Spangenberg, Danny Espinosa and Brock Holt. Factor in a potential domestic violence suspension for Reyes, and the fact that he is averaging just 117 games per season over the past three years, and it seems like Story is a lock to get significant playing time in 2016. He posted an .869 OPS with 20 home runs and 22 steals (on 25 attempts) as a 22-year-old splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there is all kinds of fantasy goodness in store if he can wrangle an everyday job at some point in the first half.

Los Angeles Dodgers
1. Corey Seager, SS, 21, MLB
2. Julio Urias, LHP, 19, Triple-A
3. Jose De Leon, RHP, 23, Triple-A
4. Alex Verdugo, OF, 19, High-A
5. Grant Holmes, RHP, 20, High-A
6. Yadier Alvarez, RHP, 20, Rookie ball
7. Yusniel Diaz, OF, 19, Rookie ball
8. Kenta Maeda, RHP, 27, MLB
9. Frankie Montas, RHP, 23, Triple-A
10. Cody Bellinger, 1B, 20, Double-A

Overview:

Armchair GMs have been ripping the Dodgers' process all offseason, but they now have the best farm system in the game and also have one of the deepest and best major league rosters. Sustainable success is the goal for any organization, and the Dodgers appear to be well on their way to achieving that goal. The top seven players on this list have the potential to be role-60 players or better at the big league level, and it is a very nice mixture of pitching and position players. Everyone knows about Seager and Urias, but 2015 served as a breakout year for De Leon, Verdugo and Bellinger, while Holmes and Montas simply picked up where they left off after strong 2014 campaigns. Alvarez, Diaz and Maeda were international free agent signings, continuing the Dodgers' dominance in talent acquisition in Asia and Latin America. Verdugo could be undervalued heading into 2016, but he has the potential to finish the year as a top-10 prospect in the game, thanks to advanced offensive tools across the board, evidenced by the fact that he could be in Triple-A in 2017 before his 21st birthday. Trayce Thompson, Willie Calhoun, Yaisel Sierra, Micah Johnson, Zach Lee, Walker Buehler and Starling Heredia all missed the top-10, but all of those guys would have made the Giants, Diamondbacks and Padres top-10s with ease.

Most Upside/Best Bet For 2016:Corey Seager - He's a stud, and was in the conversation for the top fantasy prospect in the game (I eventually ended up bestowing that honor on Byron Buxton). This system is loaded with high-upside prospects, but Seager was still a cinch for that honor. The Cal Ripken comps are very real, as I expect him to hit 25-28 homers with a .280-.300 batting average in his prime, and that prime may only be a year or two away. There is a little too much hype surrounding Seager in drafts right now, as he has gone as high as 39 in NFBC drafts, and he was popped at 45 in a draft I was in on Jan. 22, so by the time March rolls around, it will take a third round pick to get him. That is just a tad too aggressive. He is not Kris Bryant. Bryant was 23 last year and had slugged .619 or better at every stop in the minor leagues. Seager will be 21 when the season starts, and he rode a .387 BABIP in his brief taste of the majors last year, so it is completely unreasonable to expect him to just pick up where he left off. He also hasn't had to make adjustments against big league pitching yet, so we don't know how he will handle that process. I can see the case for him being a top-four shortstop on big boards this year, but there is very little realistic room for profit if you have to take him inside the top-45.

San Diego Padres
1. Manuel Margot, OF, 21, Double-A
2. Javier Guerra, SS, 20, High-A
3. Ruddy Giron, SS, 19, Low-A
4. Hunter Renfroe, OF, 24, Triple-A
5. Colin Rea, RHP, 25, Triple-A
6. Travis Jankowski, OF, 24, Triple-A
7. Austin Smith, RHP, 19, Rookie ball
8. Jose Rondon, SS, 22, Double-A
9. Logan Allen, LHP, 18, Short season
10. Michael Gettys, OF, 20, High-A

Overview:

After shipping the most intriguing pieces from their system to Washington in last year's three-team Wil Myers trade, the Padres recouped two similarly intriguing prospects in Margot and Guerra from Boston in the Craig Kimbrel deal this offseason. Those are the two foundational pieces in this system, and the two players who should be owned in the vast majority of dynasty leagues. Giron's power production as an 18-year-old at Low-A last year turned heads, but he is still a few years away, and questions remain about his ability to stick at shortstop. Renfroe has been on the prospect radar for a while, and the longer he lingers in the minors, the more his warts start to overwhelm his power potential. He has the ability to hit 20-plus homers annually, even in Petco Park, but that production will almost assuredly be accompanied by a sub-.250 batting average in a full-time role. Rea and Jankowski are most likely fringe major leaguers, but just the fact that Rea is big league ready and a Padres pitcher makes him interesting. Smith, Rondon and Allen are either too far away, or have too low of a ceiling to be considered in most dynasty leagues. Prior to acquiring Margot and Guerra, the Padres may have had a bottom-three farm system — now they at least have some shine at the top.

Most Upside:Manuel Margot - This is a tough debate between Margot and Guerra, as a shortstop who hits .270 with 25 homers is an awfully valuable fantasy piece, and that could be Guerra's destiny. However, Margot's ultimate ceiling is similar to what A.J. Pollock gave owners last year, and that gives him the edge. He has one of the best hit tools in the minors, so unlike Guerra, dynasty league owners can feel confident they are getting at least a high-average bat. He also has 40-steal potential and could hit 12-15 homers annually in his peak years. With 64 games at Double-A under his belt, Margot could get a taste of the big leagues late in 2016, and he should be the everyday center fielder by May 2017.

Best Bet For 2016:Colin Rea - This would have been Rymer Liriano's spot before he was DFA'd, so that properly encapsulates how much to expect from Rea this year, and Jankowski for that matter. Barring an injury or a trade, Rea probably won't start the year in the rotation, as Robbie Erlin is out of options, but he will be pitching every fifth day for San Diego soon enough. He's not unexciting the way Tim Cooney and Ariel Jurado are unexciting, but this is another notch or two below on the fringe spectrum. That said, he's got enough pitchability to put up a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.30 WHIP with a little luck, and there is value in that in NL-only leagues.

San Francisco Giants
1. Christian Arroyo, SS, 20, Double-A
2. Lucius Fox, SS, 18, Rookie ball
3. Chris Shaw, 1B, 22, Low-A
4. Tyler Beede, RHP, 22, Double-A
5. Adalberto Mejia, LHP, 22, Triple-A
6. Aramis Garcia, C, 23, High-A
7. Phil Bickford, RHP, 20, Low-A
8. Mac Williamson, OF, 25, Triple-A
9. Chase Johnson, RHP, 24, Double-A
10. Michael Santos, RHP, 20, Low-A

Overview:

This is the worst system in the division, as there is very little upside to be found, and the best player in the system is firmly blocked at the big league level. Arroyo is very advanced with the bat, as he heads to Double-A as a 20-year-old, but he won't offer double-digit steals, and even getting to 12-15 homers might be tricky, especially if he stays in the organization. That said, he can handle both middle infield positions and could hit .290 or better annually. Shaw, an advanced college bat selected in the first round last year, will be impossible to fully evaluate until he gets to the upper levels. Beede probably has the highest ceiling of the arms listed here, but he also carries so much risk that one really has to squint to see a No. 3 starter at the big league level. Johnson would be the next best ceiling play, but he has even more risk than Beede. Williamson could be a Quadruple-A bat, but the same would have been said of Matt Duffy before last year, so it's worth keeping tabs on him in case a corner outfield spot opens up at some point in 2016.

Most Upside:Lucius Fox - The Giants' top international signing from 2015 is eons away from the majors, but he is also the only prospect in the system with the type of high-end upside dynasty league owners crave. Fox has elite speed, and could play center field if he doesn't make it as a shortstop. His speed and athleticism and 45-grade power projection make Jose Reyes a fitting comparison if he reaches his potential.

Best Bet For 2016:Adalberto Mejia - Nobody in this system should be drafted in single-season leagues, but Mejia is the top guy for watch lists. The big lefty will start the year at Triple-A and could emerge as a rotation option sometime this summer. He won't be anything more than a No. 4 starter, but even back-end types can have mixed league value pitching half their games in San Francisco.