Farm Futures: International League Roundup

Our tour of the minor leagues continues this week with a trip to the International League. If you like outlandish stat lines that allow you to salivate over your favorite Triple-A prospects, I suggest you check out last week's Pacific Coast League roundup. The International League ballparks are pretty fair for the most part, so this is typically a good environment to get a sense of a player's true talent. This leads to less cartoonish numbers, and more panic among dynasty league owners whose prospects haven't started hitting yet. Remember, it's early. Each player's rank on the top 400 prospect rankings is noted.

Yoan Moncada, 2B, Charlotte (White Sox): .311/.386/.522, five HR, one 3B, two 2B, 6-for-8 on SB attempts, 31:11 K:BB in 90 ABs.
Rank: 1

Coming into the year, we knew Moncada had immense talent, and we knew he had some strikeout issues that needed to be addressed before he made his return to the big leagues. He has shown that immense talent with regularity in his first taste of Triple-A, leading the league in home runs plus stolen bases (11), which is a solid gauge for tools at this level. However, he has not corrected his strikeout issues, ranking fifth in the league with 31 strikeouts and sporting 30.7 percent strikeout rate, which is almost identical to the 30.9 percent rate he posted in 45 games at Double-A last year. Additionally, his .426 BABIP makes his .311 average seem unsustainable. It should also be noted that Charlotte is the second most hitter-friendly park in the league, behind Columbus. He can be promoted on May 13 and the White Sox would gain an extra year of control, but it's hard to imagine him not having significant strikeout issues, at least initially, upon a promotion. If the White Sox are smart, they will keep him in the minors for another month or two, with a directive to cut down on the strikeouts before returning to the big leagues.

Clint Frazier, OF, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (Yankees): .222/.313/.420, three HR, seven 2B, 2-for-2 on SB attempts, 22:10 K:BB in 81 ABs.
Rank: 5

It's not a very sexy stat line, but I'm pretty encouraged by what Frazier has done so far this year with the RailRiders. He has made a lot of hard contact while lowering his strikeout rate from around 28 percent in 30 games at Triple-A last year to 22.9 percent in 22 games this year. He has also almost doubled his walk rate to 10.4 percent this season. His .254 BABIP is largely responsible for the low batting average, and once his luck evens out, his numbers will really start to pop. Long term, I think there is 30-homer/15-steal potential, with a batting average in the .260-.270 range. There is not an opening for him in the majors, unless Jacoby Ellsbury's nerve issue turns out to be more serious, but he'll be up one way or another sometime this summer.

Austin Meadows, OF, Indianapolis (Pirates): .198/.255/.267, one HR, three 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 20:6 K:BB in 86 ABs.
Rank: 9

In March, if we all knew Starling Marte was going to be hit with an 80-game suspension in April, Meadows would have likely gone in the top-300 picks in a good chunk of NFBC leagues. Alas, he has done nothing at Triple-A to capitalize on the opening in the big-league outfield, as his struggles at this level have continued. A lot of this can be attributed to poor luck on balls in play (.236 BABIP in 2016, .242 BABIP in 2017). The fact is, Meadows was rushed to Triple-A, playing just 51 games at Double-A, so it should not come as a huge surprise that he has taken a while to get going at the highest level of the minors. While I fully expect his bat to heat up in the coming weeks, he is in a bit of a time crunch, as Marte will be back in mid-July. If Meadows is not ready for a promotion until mid-to-late June, would the Pirates promote him with the knowledge that he would only get everyday at-bats for two or three weeks? They might, but he could very easily struggle in his first few weeks in the majors and wind up being a net negative for his single-season owners. At the time, it seemed that the Marte suspension added some clarity to Meadows' 2017 outlook, but it may have only complicated matters further.

Willy Adames, SS, Durham (Rays): .212/.313/.329, one HR, one 3B, five 2B, 2-for-2 on SB attempts, 23:13 K:BB in 85 ABs.
Rank: 12

It was always a bit of a pipe dream to think the Rays would break character and rush Adames to the majors early this summer, and it seems that we can safely rule that out, given his slow start. His strikeout and walk rates are right in line with what he did at Double-A last year, but for a player who has constantly posted batting averages on balls in play in the .340-.380 range, a .274 BABIP is well below his career norms. Adames his extremely well built for a shortstop, projecting as at least a 25-plus homer bat in his peak years. This slow start to the season opens up a really nice buying opportunity for a player who was already largely underrated coming into the season.

J.P. Crawford, SS, Lehigh Valley (Phillies): .139/.261/.177, one 3B, one 2B, 2-for-2 on SB attempts, 22:13 K:BB in 79 ABs.
Rank: 23

While a handful of high-caliber prospects are off to rough starts in the International League, Crawford is in a class by himself. He has been 70 percent worse than a league average hitter through 22 games (30 wRC+), and while his .193 BABIP is a big factor in that, it's hard to tell Crawford's owners not to be worried at all. I thought he would be tearing the cover off the ball at Triple-A and force a promotion in late May or early June, largely due to the fact that he had already played 87 games at this level last season. Crawford's fantasy ceiling was never thought to be that high, and now some doubt may be creeping in regarding how high his floor truly is. That said, I would preach patience to Crawford's owners. I wouldn't target Crawford as a buy-low candidate the way I would Adames, but if you own Crawford in a dynasty league, you need to have faith that he will snap out of this funk. He is still just 22.

Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Lehigh Valley (Phillies): .350/.447/.675, seven HR, five 2B, 15:13 K:BB in 80 ABs.
Rank: 33

This guy just continues to get better, and with Cody Bellinger in the big leagues, the case could be made that Hoskins is the top first base prospect in the minor leagues, depending on where you think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rafael Devers end up on the defensive spectrum. Hoskins has legit plus power to all fields, and he has excellent zone coverage. While he falls into the dreaded righty-throw/righty-hit first baseman subset, he has never shown any debilitating issues against righties, and he actually boasts a .414/.493/.810 slash line against righties this season, with six of his seven homers coming against same-handed pitching. Tommy Joseph will likely get another month or two, as the Phillies should be in no rush to start the clock on their young position players, but if Hoskins continues to torch Triple-A pitching, he will be up in June or July.

Ozzie Albies, 2B, Gwinnett (Braves): .252/.275/.398, one HR, two 3B, eight 2B, 8-for-9 on SB attempts, 26:4 K:BB in 103 ABs.
Rank: 34

Albies turned 20 in January and already has 80 games under his belt at Triple-A. That's the good news. The bad news is that his bat has yet to come alive at this level after hitting over .310 at every other stop in pro ball. This seems like another opportunity to buy low. A pessimist could look at his production and see Alcides Escobar at second base, but that significantly undersells the potential of his hit tool, and he has slightly more power than Escobar. This could be Elvis Andrus at second base, where he starts his career with a handful of 30-plus steal seasons with three or four home runs chipped in annually, and then morphs into a 10-homer/25-steal threat in his late 20s.

Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Buffalo (Blue Jays): .194/.298/.333, three HR, one 2B, 20:11 K:BB in 72 ABs.
Rank: 35

Tellez just recently turned 22, which is pretty young for a first base prospect at Triple-A, so that needs to be factored in when evaluating his performance this season. His .220 BABIP is the primary reason his slash line looks underwhelming. His 13.1 percent walk rate is the highest mark he has posted since 2014 when he was at Low-A, and while his 23.8 percent strikeout rate is a career high, it is manageable, given his age, patience and power. It is worth noting that Tellez hit .164/.345/.361 in April at Double-A last year, and was one of the best hitters in the minors over the final four months of the season. He is someone to target in trades.

Jake Bauers, OF/1B, Durham (Rays): .235/.353/.306, one HR, three 2B, 5-for-5 on SB attempts, 23:15 K:BB in 85 ABs.
Rank: 37

Bauers, 21, is one of the youngest players in the International League, so this slow start should not be troubling. His 15 walks rank fourth in the entire league, behind a 26-year-old and two 30-year-olds. While his 22.5 percent strikeout rate marks the first time he has posted a K-rate above 20 percent in pro ball, I fully expect that rate to dip below 20 percent before he receives a promotion to the big leagues later this season. He is not even an above average runner, so his success on the basepaths is a bit surprising. However, he could end up stealing 15-plus bases due to excellent reads and solid-average speed, a la Ryan Braun or Wil Myers. Bauers remains one of the most underrated prospects in the game.

Jesse Winker, OF, Louisville (Reds): .295/.374/.346, four 2B, 0-for-2 on SB attempts, 8:11 K:BB in 78 ABs.
Rank: 39

Well, the lack of power probably still can't be blamed on last year's wrist injury. Dilson Herrera and Phillip Ervin have combined for six home runs, so it's not fair to blame the home park at Louisville either. Winker needs to start hitting for some power sooner rather than later, otherwise it will be really hard to sell him as more than a two-category (average and runs) fantasy option. I'm not cashing out my chips yet (look at that approach!), but so far Winker's doubters probably feel vindicated based on his zero home runs after hitting just three home runs in 106 games at Triple-A last year.

Bradley Zimmer, OF, Columbus (Indians): .261/.313/.489, three HR, two 3B, seven 2B, 5-for-7 on SB attempts, 29:6 K:BB in 88 ABs.
Rank: 43

The strikeouts make Zimmer a flawed player. That probably won't change. However, he has enough in-game power and speed to be quite useful in most formats even if he is only hitting .245. He also has enough defensive utility, being able to play all three outfield spots, to warrant keeping his bat in the lineup every day, even when he is slumping. Look for him to get called up to the majors in mid-June.

Dustin Fowler, OF, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (Yankees): .291/.344/.558, four HR, three 3B, five 2B, 2-for-5 on SB attempts, 18:7 K:BB in 86 ABs.
Rank: 62

I vastly underrated Fowler before the season. I've always liked the hit tool, but I didn't think he'd walk at all, and was hesitant to project double-digit homers annually. It's only 21 games, but he seems to have addressed both of those concerns, at least to some extent. His 7.5 percent walk rate is double what he posted in a full season at Double-A last year, and his power continues to trend in the right direction: .177 ISO in 2016, .267 ISO this year. While Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier are clearly the Yankees' corner outfielders of the future, Fowler now looks like the legitimate center fielder of the future, completing what could a very entertaining outfield trio for years to come.

Chance Sisco, C, Norfolk (Orioles): .230/.319/.344, seven 2B, 20:7 K:BB in 61 ABs.
Rank: 64

Strikeout issues have plagued Sisco in 22 career games at Triple-A, but he's a 22-year-old catcher. It should not be surprising to see him struggling to adjust to the pitching at this level. High-A to Double-A is a big jump for hitters, but so is Double-A to Triple-A, as there are plenty of veteran hurlers who can just throw a steady diet of soft stuff out of the zone while locating a low-90s fastball. His walk rate is still above 10 percent. He should improve as the season goes on, but for those stashing him in single-season leagues, a promotion before July or August seems highly unlikely.

Jorge Alfaro, C, Lehigh Valley (Phillies): .351/.383/.532, three HR, two 3B, one 2B, 1-for-2 on SB attempts, 21:2 K:BB in 77 ABs.
Rank: 81

Pump the brakes. Yes, those numbers are pretty absurd for a toolsy, 23-year-old catcher at Triple-A, who also happens to be on the 40-man roster. However, Alfaro is striking out 25.9 percent of the time and walking 2.5 percent of the time. He also boasts a ridiculous .453 BABIP, so this start to the season is largely a mirage. Alfaro has just as much raw power as Gary Sanchez, so it's possible he could receive a call-up this summer and catch fire and carry some fantasy teams, but it's also possible he gets called up and hits .185 with a 40 percent strikeout rate. The range of outcomes is vast, as are the tools, but if I owned Alfaro, I'd view this as a prime opportunity to cash out my shares.

Nick Williams, OF, Lehigh Valley (Phillies): .266/.314/.430, two HR, seven 2B, 3-for-3 on SB attempts, 24:3 K:BB in 79 ABs.
Rank: 82

Williams has been unable to recapture the gains he made with his approach in 2015 since getting to Triple-A, and with 148 games logged at the highest level of the minors, it's getting hard to expect those changes to come at this point. He still has exciting raw tools: plus raw power, above average speed, and an innate bat-to-ball ability. However, unlike Zimmer, he doesn't walk and he is less versatile in the outfield, likely destined for left field. It's an exciting, yet flawed profile.

Roman Quinn, OF, Lehigh Valley (Phillies): .262/.323/.333, one 3B, four 2B, 5-for-7 on SB attempts, 28:8 K:BB in 84 ABs.
Rank: 90

Players like Quinn are some of my least favorite to rank. He has the speed to steal 40-plus bases over a full season, but enough flaws to question whether he ever plays enough to fully unleash that speed. Staying healthy has always been an issue, so it's good to see he hasn't missed time this year, but strikeouts have also been a big issue in the upper levels, and he is striking out at a 29.5 percent clip. Will a team with the Phillies' resources ever be satisfied with Quinn as an everyday player? I have my doubts. If he only garners 300 plate appearances per season and hits .255 with 25 steals and basically no power, that's not overly appealing in fantasy, yet that is a pretty realistic outcome.

Sam Travis, 1B, Pawtucket (Red Sox): .219/.296/.313, one HR, three 2B, 1-for-2 on SB attempts, 18:7 K:BB in 64 ABs.
Rank: 93

Travis is one of those prospects who is in the wrong system. He has an above average hit tool with the potential for 20-homer power, but that may never be enough for the Red Sox to view him as the answer at first base. They would love for his bat to heat up so they could deal him for help at the deadline, and that would be the best-case scenario for both parties, as Travis could have a solid run at first base on a second division team.

Casey Gillaspie, 1B, Durham (Rays): .186/.260/.279, two HR, one 3B, 1-for-1 on SB attempts, 21:9 K:BB in 86 ABs.
Rank: 161

Here's another extremely annoying prospect profile: the old first baseman with plus power and a questionable hit tool. If Gillaspie had gotten off to a great start and Logan Morrison had struggled, we could have realistically seen the former get a shot in the first half, but the opposite has happened. Jake Bauers is easily the better prospect, but he is still playing more outfield than first base, so at least Gillaspie doesn't seem to be in a three-way organizational competition. If you wanted to claim that he looks like a future Quadruple-A bat, it would be hard to argue at this point.

OTHERS OF NOTE

Tyler Wade, UTIL, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (Yankees): .310/.372/.345, one 3B, one 2B, 9-for-10 on SB attempts, 15:8 K:BB in 84 ABs.
Rank: 234

Dylan Cozens, OF, Lehigh Valley (Phillies): .165/.232/.341, four HR, one 3B, one 2B, 0-for-1 on SB attempts, 40:8 K:BB in 85 ABs.
Rank: 257

Rio Ruiz, 3B, Gwinnett (Braves): .241/.287/.402, three HR, five 2B, 1-for-2 on SB attempts, 23:6 K:BB in 87 ABs.
Rank: 266

Erik Gonzalez, SS, Columbus (Indians): .286/.309/.505, five HR, two 3B, four 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 29:4 K:BB in 105 ABs.
Rank: 349

Dilson Herrera, 2B, Louisville (Reds): .244/.303/.354, two HR, three 2B, 0-for-3 on SB attempts, 21:6 K:BB in 82 ABs.
Rank: No longer a prospect

Max Moroff, UTIL, Indianapolis (Pirates): .247/.337/.494, six HR, four 2B, 2-for-3 on SB attempts, 32:12 K:BB in 89 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Phillip Ervin, OF, Louisville (Reds): .253/.309/.467, four HR, four 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 18:6 K:BB in 75 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Rob Refsnyder, UTIL, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (Yankees): .260/.352/.429, one HR, two 3B, six 2B, 0-for-1 on SB attempts, 19:8 K:BB in 77 ABs.
Rank: No longer a prospect

Daniel Palka, OF, Rochester (Twins): .262/.319/.476, five HR, three 2B, 21:7 K:BB in 84 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Dwight Smith Jr., OF, Buffalo (Blue Jays): .338/.400/.527, three HR, five 2B, 3-for-3 on SB attempts, 13:8 K:BB in 74 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Elias Diaz, C, Indianapolis (Pirates): .305/.317/.441, one HR, five 2B, 1-for-1 on SB attempts, 8:1 K:BB in 59 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Sebastian Elizalde, 1B/OF, Louisville (Reds): .301/.389/.430, one HR, three 3B, three 2B, 0-for-1 on SB attempts, 14:12 K:BB in 93 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Chris Bostick, UTIL, Indianapolis (Pirates): .333/.361/.516, two HR, two 3B, seven 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 16:4 K:BB in 93 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Patrick Leonard, 3B, Durham (Rays): .400/.460/.533, two HR, six 2B, 5-for-5 on SB attempts, 19:9 K:BB in 90 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Juan Perez, UTIL, Louisville (Reds): .304/.402/.544, four HR, one 3B, five 2B, 6-for-9 on SB attempts, 17:12 K:BB in 79 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Richie Shaffer, OF, Durham (Rays): .266/.385/.506, five HR, four 2B, 1-for-1 on SB attempts, 26:16 K:BB in 79 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Nicky Delmonico, 3B, Charlotte (White Sox): .319/.385/.489, two HR, one 3B, eight 2B, 13:9 K:BB in 94 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked