Farm Futures: Pacific Coast League Roundup

I could write about lower-level hitters every week, but after focusing on Low-A hitters in the first two weeks of our tour through the minor leagues, it's time to appease the masses and head to the Pacific Coast League. Even after the recent promotions of Cody Bellinger, Dan Vogelbach, Christian Arroyo, Teoscar Hernandez, Matt Olson and Jorge Bonifacio, there are still plenty of exciting prospects in the PCL who are knocking on the door of the big leagues. It is important to remember that the PCL is the most hitter-friendly league in the minors, so a lot of these statistics are inflated to varying degrees. Each player's rank on the top 400 prospect rankings is noted.

Amed Rosario, SS, Las Vegas (Mets): .397/.444/.466, one 3B, three 2B, 5-for-7 on SB attempts, 10:6 K:BB in 73 ABs.
Rank: 9

Rosario has not posted a BABIP below .430 since he was at High-A in the first half of last year, which, coupled with extremely advantageous hitting conditions to begin 2017, make it very difficult to get a good read for what type of hitter he would be right now against big-league pitching. That said, this scorching hot start has forced the hand of anyone who planned on stashing Rosario this season. Jose Reyes has been pretty terrible to start the season, and while he will undoubtedly bounce back somewhat, Rosario is the better player, especially when factoring in his defense at shortstop. There probably won't be much over-the-fence power when he gets promoted (although he should be a 20-plus homer bat in his peak years), but he has plus speed and his strong approach should allow him to be at least a two or three category contributor in roto leagues. If the Mets are concerned about Rosario gaining Super Two status, they will likely wait five or six weeks to promote him, but if they are willing to give him an extra year of arbitration in order to plug their hole in the infield, he could be up at a moment's notice.

Lewis Brinson, OF, Colorado Springs (Brewers): .388/.426/.653, three HR, four 2B, 3-for-6 on SB attempts, 11:3 K:BB in 49 ABs.
Rank: 15

Eight of Brinson's 12 games have come at Colorado Springs and he is sporting a .444 BABIP, so his slash line should be largely ignored when speculating about what he might be able to do against big-league pitching. He is unlikely to ever walk much, but his strikeout rate is at a very manageable 20.4 percent. Keon Broxton (-0.2) and Domingo Santana (-0.3) have been negative WAR players to start the season, and while they should both regress to the mean, another bad month from either player could open the door for Brinson. He has five-category potential long term, but it would be wise not to expect a batting average over .255 or .260 in his first major-league season.

Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Iowa (Cubs): .253/.330/.557, seven HR, three 2B, 1-for-2 on SB attempts, 18:9 K:BB in 79 ABs.
Rank: 18

After a blistering start to the season, Happ is in a 6-for-34 funk with Iowa, thanks largely to a .241 BABIP which has taken some of the shine off his slash line. Still, his excellent approach and above average to plus power stand out for a 22-year-old with his defensive versatility. He has played 13 games at second base and five games in the outfield, seeing time at all three outfield spots with three of his starts coming in center field. Unlike with Rosario and Brinson, there is unlikely to be an opening for playing time anytime soon in Chicago, but there may come a time this summer where the Cubs just pull the trigger and find a way to give Happ a few starts each week, if it appears he has mastered Triple-A pitching.

Franklin Barreto, SS/2B, Nashville (A's): .352/.400/.549, three HR, two 3B, one 2B, 1-for-3 on SB attempts, 24:5 K:BB in 71 ABs.
Rank: 34

Nashville is the most pitcher-friendly park in the PCL, but only six of Barreto's 18 games have come at home, and only four of his 25 hits have come at home. In addition to feasting on favorable hitting environments, his slash line is propped up by an outlandish .478 BABIP. He is also sporting a 29.6 percent strikeout rate, which is far and away a career worst, so it's hard to argue that he is ready for a promotion to the big leagues as a young 21-year-old. On a positive note, the majority of Barreto's starts have come at shortstop, so even though he profiles better at second base or center field long term, he is unlikely to be passed over for a promotion strictly because they A's don't want him exposed at the six. This would be a solid time to sell high in a dynasty league.

Dominic Smith, 1B, Las Vegas (Mets): .342/.388/.506, two HR, one 3B, five 2B, 12:6 K:BB in 79 ABs.
Rank: 35

The Mets have gone strictly one level per year with Smith since popping him with the 11th overall pick in the 2013 draft, and that patience has paid off. He is playing in the most favorable hitting environment of his career, but is nonetheless continuing to show off a very solid approach and a plus hit tool, highlighted by a 14.1 percent strikeout rate -- a very impressive mark for a 21-year-old first base prospect getting his first taste of Triple-A pitching. The thing to watch with Smith will be his power output, as it would be nice to see him flirt with 20 homers for the first time in his career. It's a small sample, but his .165 ISO is a career best. Unless Lucas Duda suffers a serious injury, Smith will remain at Triple-A, but he should take over the everyday duties at first base in April of 2018.

Raimel Tapia, OF, Albuquerque (Rockies): .356/.406/.525, one 3B, eight 2B, 2-for-3 on SB attempts, 10:5 K:BB in 59 ABs.
Rank: 41

Tapia has very little left to prove in the minors and nowhere to play in the majors. The most impressive part about his start to the season is his 7.8 percent walk rate -- his highest mark since he was in the Dominican Summer League in 2011. Walking at a solid clip will be huge for Tapia in the big leagues, as it could allow him to hit near the top of a lineup, whereas if he is just posting an empty .280 or .285 batting average, he might find himself hitting eighth. His .429 BABIP is largely responsible for inflating his slash line, but it would not be surprising to see him continue to hit over .300 for the remainder of his time in the PCL.

Tyler O'Neill, OF, Tacoma (Mariners): .208/.266/.417, three HR, one 3B, four 2B, 4-for-5 on SB attempts, 21:6 K:BB in 72 ABs.
Rank: 48

Finally, a player who is not riding good fortune to an unsustainably high slash line. O'Neill's .245 BABIP is the primary factor in his slow start to the season, as he is already showing his plus power and has been a surprisingly effective base stealer in the early going. His 26.6 percent strikeout rate is right where one would expect it to be in his first month at Triple-A, and he will always have quite a bit of swing-and-miss in his game. He has gone one level per year for each of the past two seasons, and it seems like he would really need to catch fire to force a pre-September promotion.

Derek Fisher, OF, Fresno (Astros): .279/.375/.515, four HR, four 2B, 2-for-7 on SB attempts, 19:10 K:BB in 68 ABs.
Rank: 49

Fisher got a 27-game run at Triple-A last season, and will turn 24 in August, so he is a bit more seasoned than the names ahead of him on this list. On the plus side, his .235 ISO is a career best, and he is on pace to hit 25-plus homers over a full year in the PCL, so the all-fields power is certainly on display. Unfortunately, he no longer appears to be a legitimate double-digit steal threat, as he has been terrible on the bases so far this season. The strong approach and the plus power both point to an average corner outfielder in the majors. He has yet to show significant issues against left-handed pitching, so he may even be able to play every day. Fisher could join the mix in Houston later this summer, but his best avenue to everyday at-bats would come via a trade.

Willie Calhoun, 2B, Oklahoma City (Dodgers): .333/.362/.470, one HR, six 2B, 2-for-2 on SB attempts, 6:3 K:BB in 66 ABs.
Rank: 93

Renowned for having a unique skill at making contact, Calhoun has topped himself this year, posting a ridiculous 8.7 percent strikeout rate. Unfortunately, that coincides with a career worst 4.3 percent walk rate, so it is not necessarily a net positive. He has yet to really show off his plus raw power to the pull side against Triple-A arms, but that will come sooner rather than later. After attempting zero steals in 2016, he is already perfect on two attempts this year, but he does not project as much of a threat on the bases in the big leagues. The question is, when will he get a chance to play on the strong side of a platoon for the Dodgers? He will be a below average defender no matter where he plays, and they have a lot of depth all over the field, so it's going to require a leap of faith or a trade.

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Iowa (Cubs): .309/.413/.647, three HR, two 3B, 10 2B, 21:11 K:BB in 68 ABs.
Rank: 98

Of the top prospects in the PCL, one could argue fairly easily that Candelario is the most big-league ready of the bunch. He has logged almost 100 games at Triple-A and is still 23 years old. He has posted walk rates above 10 percent at every stop above High-A, and while his 26.3 percent strikeout rate and .409 BABIP are notable outliers, he still projects to be an average hitter in the big leagues right now. His .338 ISO is roughly twice as good as his career average, and he is on pace to shatter his previous career high of 13 home runs in a minor-league season. Candelario likely needs a trade to ever get a shot at everyday at-bats.

Ronald Guzman, 1B, Round Rock (Rangers): .351/.422/.514, three HR, one 3B, one 2B, 14:7 K:BB in 74 ABs.
Rank: 156

Guzman is another player with a BABIP over .400 in the early going, so it's hard to read too much into his early success. However, after posting a 24.2 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate in a brief taste of the PCL last year, he is currently sporting a 16.9 percent strikeout rate and 8.4 percent walk rate, and the approach is actually the best it has been in his pro career. I don't see the game power with Guzman that we typically associate with top 15 first basemen, and he lacks the super high batting average floor that Dominic Smith brings at the position, which is why he is farther down the rankings.

Brett Phillips, OF, Colorado Springs (Brewers): .304/.371/.607, five HR, two 2B, 21:6 K:BB in 56 ABs.
Rank: 184

If you are thinking about trading Brett Phillips in a dynasty league, I'd wait until he's had a few homestands at Colorado Springs.

— James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson) October 18, 2016

This was expected to some extent, as Colorado Springs can make any hitter's profile shine a little bit brighter. That said, Colorado Springs is roughly an average park for power (it really boosts runs and BABIP), and all five of his home runs have come at home, so he appears to be legitimately tapping into more pop than ever before. Of course, that 33.9 percent strikeout rate and .400 BABIP are hard to ignore, and the strikeouts in particular confirm the concerns I had about Phillips coming into the year. He is no longer much of a threat on the bases, so he needs to hit for a decent average to be useful and to allow the power to play in games, and so far it appears his hit tool is still fringe average at best. Sell, sell, sell.

Ryan O'Hearn, 1B, Omaha (Royals): .338/.392/.632, five HR, five 2B, 15:5 K:BB in 68 ABs.
Rank: 185

O'Hearn's 20.3 percent strikeout rate is probably the most surprising metric of any of the prospects covered in this article, as he has routinely posted rates close to 30 percent at every level above Low-A. I'm a little skeptical of him keeping it up, and he's walking less (6.8 percent walk rate) as a result, but if he can maintain these improvements, he has a chance to be a slightly below-average starting first baseman (think .265, 20 HR) if the Royals let Eric Hosmer walk after this year.

OTHERS OF NOTE

Mark Zagunis, OF, Iowa (Cubs): .220/.378/.441, four HR, one 2B, 16:14 K:BB in 59 ABs.
Rank: 188

Harrison Bader, OF, Memphis (Cardinals): .246/.361/.410, two HR, four 2B, 1-for-4 on SB attempts, 15:8 K:BB in 61 ABs.
Rank: 198

Ryan Cordell, OF, Colorado Springs (Brewers): .290/.357/.597, four HR, one 3B, five 2B, 2-for-3 on SB attempts, 15:5 K:BB in 62 ABs.
Rank: 241

Victor Caratini, C, Iowa (Cubs): .333/.390/.478, one HR, one 3B, five 2B, 7:7 K:BB in 69 ABs.
Rank: 340

Colin Moran, 3B, Fresno (Astros): .278/.350/.472, three HR, five 2B, 11:8 K:BB in 72 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Paul DeJong, 3B, Memphis (Cardinals): .277/.299/.400, one HR, five 2B, 0-for-1 on SB attempts, 21:1 K:BB in 65 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Renato Nunez, 3B, Nashville (A's): .232/.260/.406, three HR, three 2B, 25:3 K:BB in 69 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Jordan Patterson, 1B, Albuquerque (Rockies): .183/.286/.400, two HR, two 3B, three 2B, 0-for-1 on SB attempts, 24:6 K:BB in 60 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Carlos Asuaje, 2B, El Paso (Padres): .219/.301/.281, four 2B, 12:8 K:BB in 64 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Gavin Cecchini, 2B/SS, Las Vegas (Mets): .231/.318/.372, two HR, five 2B, 3-for-3 on SB attempts, 11:10 K:BB in 78 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Chesny Young, 2B, Iowa (Cubs): .244/.279/.256, one 2B, 1-for-2 on SB attempts, 12:4 K:BB in 78 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Franchy Cordero, OF, El Paso (Padres): .209/.264/.507, four HR, three 3B, two 2B, 2-for-3 on SB attempts, 24:5 K:BB in 67 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

D.J. Peterson, 1B, Tacoma (Mariners): .213/.284/.393, three HR, two 2B, 14:6 K:BB in 61 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

FORMER PROSPECTS

A.J. Reed, 1B, Fresno (Astros): .242/.367/.424, three HR, three 2B, 24:13 K:BB in 66 ABs.

Ketel Marte, SS, Reno (Diamondbacks): .438/.471/.525, one 3B, five 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 5:5 K:BB in 80 ABs.

Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Reno (Diamondbacks): .368/.441/.754, five HR, two 3B, three 2B, 14:6 K:BB in 57 ABs.

Tommy Pham, OF, Memphis (Cardinals): .333/.405/.591, four HR, five 2B, 4-for-6 on SB attempts, 15:8 K:BB in 66 ABs.

Preston Tucker, OF, Fresno (Astros): .369/.391/.523, two HR, four 2B, 12:3 K:BB in 65 ABs.

Christian Walker, 1B, Reno (Diamondbacks): .293/.365/.560, five HR, five 2B, 16:8 K:BB in 75 ABs.