This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
There are early games which start at 2:10 pm EDT, but the good news for today is there's a healthy nine-game slate starting at 7:05 pm. This isn't typical for a Thursday, as in recent weeks there have been as few as three evening games. Let's dive into what should be a generous player pool to pick from, at least for a Thursday.
Pitching
There are four elite pitching options who come in with five-digit salaries. Sifting through the stats, only one of them stands out with an elite matchup and that's Dylan Cease ($10,400). The rest of the pricey options -- Gerrit Cole, Joe Musgrove and Tony Gonsolin -- don't have opponents who check the boxes like the Tigers do. Detroit has the second-worst wOBA against right-handed pitching (.268) and their 24 percent strikeout rate is the seventh-highest in baseball. Cease has a ridiculous 14.3 K/9 rate at home this season and has seen his ERA drop from 4.24 on May 24 to his current mark of 2.51. He comes into the game especially hot, allowing only two earned runs over his last four starts (23 innings, 0.78 ERA).
While he's not the most economical option on the slate, it's hard to ignore the potential value Spencer Strider ($8,600) brings to the mound. His swinging K% of 17.1 is one of the best in baseball, as is his 0.45 HR/9. These numbers have led to a 2.87 ERA, which his 2.00 FIP suggests has actually been unlucky. None of the Cardinals have faced Spencer yet (those situations typically favor the pitcher) and they are only league average in almost every significant category when they're away and facing right-handed pitching.
Top Targets
Matthew Liberatore hasn't had much success this season pitching for the Cardinals (5.66 ERA) and has to go on the road tonight and face a tough Atlanta squad which has a .343 wOBA against left-handed pitching, third best in baseball. One of the players driving that number is Ronald Acuna ($4,400), who carries a .405 wOBA against southpaws this season. Acuna has been solid on the basepaths and is up to 17 stolen bases this season, adding to his DFS value.
Julio Rodriguez ($3,900) has absolutely raked as of late with a 1.037 OPS over the last three weeks, and that stat doesn't include the extra fantasy points he's gotten from his four stolen bases during that time, boosting his total to 21 on the year. His home matchup tonight is favorable against Casey Lawrence, who's on the wrong side of 34 and has had minimal success in a small sample this season for the Blue Jays.
Bargain Bats
While his cumulative numbers are paltry due to significant time missed with a back injury, Kris Bryant ($3,200) looks healthy now. He's reached base safely in 10 straight games and had his first home run of the season Tuesday. Bryant's matchup tonight doesn't get much better, as Dallas Keuchel has been a shadow of his former self with a 9.64 ERA this season. It doesn't hurt that Bryant has a small yet notable history against Keuchel, going 4-for-6 against him including a home run.
It's still a good time to take advantage of the bargain that is Max Muncy ($2,700), as he's finally started to heat up. He has a .959 OPS over the last week and his season-long number has increased steadily over the last three weeks. Muncy has games of 21.7 or more fantasy points in three of his last eight games and is another player with a favorable home matchup, this one against Mark Leiter. The Dodgers have one of the highest expected run totals as the FanDuel Sportsbook has them with an over/under of five runs.
Stacks To Consider
Rockies at Diamondbacks (Keuchel): C.J. Cron ($4,400), Bryant ($3,200), Brendan Rodgers ($3,200), Randal Grichuk ($2,700)
The case against Keuchel and for Bryant has already been made and this should be one of the more popular games to target for stacks. The Rockies have smashed left-handed pitching this season, as evidenced by the wOBA's of Cron (.343), Rodgers (.429) and Grichuk (.366). This may very well be the last time we see Keuchel in an Arizona uniform given how poorly he's pitched recently.
Cardinals at Atlanta (Strider): Paul Goldschmidt ($4,200), Nolan Arenado ($4,000), Tommy Edman ($3,200), Juan Yepez ($2,700)
I know I recommended Strider, but hear me out. As a result of the rookie's recent success, the Cardinals are going to be one of the most unpopular stacks of the night, making them perfect for GPPs. In Strider's seven starts this season, he's allowed six and five earned runs in two of them and lasted 3.2 and 4.1 innings in those contests. Arenado has a double, triple and two home runs over the last week, Goldschmidt has a 1.081 OPS over the last two weeks, Yepez has five homers in his last 10 games and Edman is on pace for over 100 runs and close to 40 stolen bases. Here's your contrarian upside play.
