This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Friday, June 28
The MLB season has reached the midway point of the 162-game regular season and closing in on the All-Star break. The hot stove has been turned on and there will be a steady increase in player rumors and speculation surrounding potential trades and blockbuster moves. Several teams that just a few weeks ago were labeled as non-playoff contenders are now being thought to be buyers in the upcoming trade deadline.
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One of those teams on the move up in the standings is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are in third place in the NL Central division, but just two games under .500 and trailing by two games for the third and final NL Wild Card berth. Entering Friday action the Pirates are 39-41 averaging a 104-underdog wager, including a 51-29 record for 64-percent winning bets for NO score in the first inning. They have been excellent when priced as a +1.5-run line underdog posting a 31-18 record for 63-percent winning bets averaging –144 vig.
The Pirates are 13-10 in June and are coming off a series win in their three-game set against the division-rival Cincinnati Reds and had 10 hits in each one of the three games and scored a total of 20 runs. Since the front office promoted the 2023 No. 1 overall pick in the June Amateur Draft, Paul Skenes, on May 11, the Pirates have looked more like a contender than a pretender.
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The Pirates' Rookie Ace Paul Skenes
Skenes has ignited the franchise and has posted a perfect 4-0 record in eight starts with a 2.14 ERA and 0.993 WHIP, including 61 strikeouts and just eight walks. Even more impressive is his 2.53 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) metric, which means that he is pitching even better than his flash stats indicate. The starter ERA was 3.63 before May 11 and is now 3.46 and the decline in ERA reflects Skenes' presence.
He first was an offensive weapon as a freshman at the United States Air Force Academy before making the transfer to LSU, where he became one of the most dominating starters in NCAA history. He is a pure power pitcher able to throw well over 100 MPH consistently but has the creativity with four other pitches to make it nearly impossible for any batter to barrel up a ball. The fact is that his offspeed stuff including a "splinker" – combination of splitter and sinkeris what – makes him an incredible starting pitcher.
He has struck out 37 percent and walked just four percent of the batters he has faced and keeps the ball down in the zone by averaging a 10-degree launch angle. His game plan, especially for a rookie, is years ahead of his time. Each start he changes the number and offspeed pitches he throws and changes when he goes to them in any count. Like so many great starting pitchers, if a batter doesn't get a hit early in the count, they are most likely not going to get on base. Batters have posted a .313 batting average when swinging at the first pitch, and even in full-count situations, batters have hit a horrible .136 with zero bases on balls.
Skenes is destined to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award and if he continues to pitch at this level he could end up in the NL Cy Young Award conversation later this season. Next up for Skenes is a scheduled start against the Atlanta Braves on Saturday. The Braves will start their left-handed ace Max Fried, who is 7-3 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP on the season. So, this is a terrific matchup and will be a great game to watch.
The betting odds for this game are expected to see the Braves favored by –125 to –140 on the moneyline and I will be putting my money on the Pirates if they are priced as an underdog.
The Best Bets to Make in the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves
The Pirates will start a three-game road series against the Braves Friday, scheduled to start at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Stadium. The betting markets have the Braves priced as –180 favorites and a posted total of 8.5 runs.
The Pirates will send left-hander Martin Perez to the hill. He is 1-3 in 11 starts with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.552 WHIP, including 46 strikeouts and 19 walks spanning 57.1 innings of work. The Braves will hand the ball to right-hander Charlie Morton, who is 4-4 in 14 starts, including 80 strikeouts and 35 walks.
Over his last three starts, Morton has struggled to a 1-2 record with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP spanning 16.2 innings of work. He has had six quality starts (minimum of 6.0 innings pitched and three or fewer earned runs allowed) and eight non-quality starts this season. He has been largely inconsistent from start to start and is vulnerable for a short outing each time he toes the rubber.
Perez is not an inning-eating type of starting pitcher but has averaged 5.1 innings per start this season. His last start was coincidentally against the Braves in late May, where he completed three innings allowing zero earned runs but suffered a groin injury that landed him on the 15-day IL. He needed just one rehab start to show that he was ready to return to the starting rotation as he allowed one ER through five innings and threw an efficient 65 pitches for Triple-A Indianapolis.
The MLB Betting Algorithm for Today
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 47-30 record (61 percent) averaging a 132-underdog bet resulting in a 38-percent ROI and a $41,980 profit for the Dime Bettor spanning the past five seasons. The requirements are:
- Bet on any team avenging a loss of 6.0 or more runs in the previous meeting.
- That team has a starting pitcher who has struggled to an ERA of 7.00 or higher over his last five starts.
The best bet for Friday is on the Pirates priced a 158 underdog Friday Night.
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