Chicago Cubs-Boston Red Sox & Milwaukee Brewers-New York Yankees, Expert MLB Best Bets for April 28

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Updated on April 28, 2024 11:29AM EST

MLB Expert Picks & Best Bets for
Sunday, April 28

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The Red Sox and Phillies Are Pitching Great Baseball

The Boston Red Sox were expected to be in a rebuilding year but they are playing with the characteristics of a contender. They surprisingly boast the best team ERA in MLB and no other team is even close through 28 games. The Red Sox team ERA is a skimpy 2.63 with the AL East divisional rival New York Yankees posting a second-best ERA at 3.01 through 28 games. The Red Sox also lead MLB with five shutouts and are coming off a 17-0 laugher over the Chicago Cubs on Saturday.

The best starting pitchers in MLB are rostered on the Philadelphia Phillies, who have amassed 18 quality starts (six innings allowing three or fewer earned runs) in their 28 games (64 percent) played. If they get two more quality starts it will mark the most in the month of April since the 2018 Houston Astros.

The Phillies starters have accounted for 3.4 wins over the average MLB team and their starting rotation is the deepest in MLB and has posted a 14-7 record with seven no decisions. Their ace Zack Wheeler is just 2-3 but has made five quality starts in his six turns and has posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.884 WHIP, including 46 strikeouts spanning 37.1 innings of work. Their No. 2 starter is Aaron Nola and he is off to a 4-1 record in six starts (five straight quality starts) with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP, including 36 strikeouts over 39.1 innings of work. Then there is Ranger Suarez, who could be an ace on many MLB teams this season. The left-hander has posted a perfect 5-0 record in six starts with a 1.32 ERA and a 0.634 WHIP, including 40 strikeouts over 41 innings of work. He accounts for six quality starts. Then there is Spencer Turnbull (2-0 with a 1.33 ERA) and Cristopher Sanchez (1-3 with a 2.96 ERA), who round out their starting pitcher rotation.

Best Bets: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Yankees

The Brewers are coming off a 15-3 drubbing by the Yankees on Saturday. The Yankees had four multiple-run innings, scoring three in the first, three in the third, four in the sixth inning and four meaningless runs scored in the ninth. The Brewers could account for just one run, a home run by Rhys Hoskins, off of Carlos Rodon, who allowed two hits over six innings of work.

This is the rubber game of a three-game series. Next up for the Yankees is a visit to Camden Yards to take on their AL East Division-rival Baltimore Orioles. The Brewer will start a series hosting the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday. Supporting a bet on the Brewers is teams that lost by 10 or more runs in their previous game and are now priced as a home dog in the rubber game of a three-game series have gone 18-16, but by averaging a 137 underdog wager has earned a 22 percent ROI making the Dime Bettor a $9,700 profit.

The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day

The following MLB betting algorithm has posted an exceptional 49-35 record (58.3%), wins that have averaged a +149 wager earning a 39 percent ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $39,150 profit since 2017. The requirements are:

· Bet on home underdogs using the moneyline.

· That dog saw its bullpen allow four or more earned runs in its previous game.

· That dog was outhit by double digits.

Bet the Milwaukee Brewers priced at +110 on the money line.

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The Best Bets for the Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox Game

The Red Sox (15-13, 13-13-2 Over-Under) will host the Cubs (17-10, 13-13-1 Over-Under) in the final game of a three-game inter-league series at Fenway Park Sunday. The Red Sox are priced as -125 favorites on the moneyline with a posted total of 8.5 runs. The game will start at 7:10 p.m. ET and will be televised by ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.

The Cubs have been a solid bet averaging a -110 favorite wager producing a 27 percent ROI and making $953 per $100 wagered. The Red Sox have averaged a -18 favorite wager making $272 per $100 wagered on the season. The Sox have a winning record only because they have gone 11-5 in road games and are just 4-8 at home. The Cubs are 10-3 in home games and 7-7 on the road.

In the 17-0 shutout win by the Red Sox Saturday they also outhit the Cubs by 17 (21-5). The loser of these games often bounces back after these anomaly results.

· Teams that have been shut out by a score of 15-0 or worse have produced a 13-6 record averaging a 132 underdog bet resulting in a highly profitable 55 percent ROI and $1,181 profit per $100 wagered.

· Teams that were outhit by 15 or more hits and outscored by 15 or more runs have gone 22-21, averaging a 115 underdog bet resulting in a decent 10 percent ROI and making $736 per $100 wagered.

The MLB Betting Algorithm Supporting the Cubs

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 29-10 record averaging a 105 underdog wager and making $2,040 per $100 wagered over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

· Bet on any National League team scoring 5.2 or more RPG on the season.

· That team is coming off a dreadful loss by eight or more runs.