This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday is a day for travel in MLB usually, which means fewer games and a lot of afternoon action. There are 10 games on the slate, the first of which start at 1:10 p.m. EDT. Here are some recommendations…
Pitching
Dylan Cease, CWS at CLE ($10,100): This series has been complicated by rain, but here's something simple. Cease has gotten better every season he's been in MLB, and he's off to a great start to this campaign. He has an 1.69 ERA, an 1.46 FIP, and has struck out 13.50 batters per nine innings. Cleveland has had some big offensive days this season, including Wednesday in the first leg of a doubleheader, but I don't believe in its lineup beyond Jose Ramirez long term. I believe more in Cease.
Joe Ryan, MIN at KC ($9,300): It's a particularly-rough day for pitching Thursday, but I think I've made do. Ryan only made five starts last season, but he posted a 3.43 FIP. This year he has a 2.70 ERA through two starts. The Royals were 24th in runs scored last year, and promising prospect Bobby Witt isn't going to turn them into juggernauts alone.
Paul Blackburn, OAK vs. BAL ($8,600): Blackburn has an 1.80 ERA through two starts, even though they were both on the road. They were also against Toronto and Tampa Bay. Oakland is a great place to pitch, and the Orioles are a great opponent to face. Baltimore is likely to be in the running to have the worst offense in MLB, likely battling Pittsburgh for the "honor."
Top Targets
Anthony Rizzo ($4,300) and Michael Pineda were never teammates on the Yankees, but they will square off Thursday. Rizzo, a lefty, has a career .369 OBP and a .400 OBP this season. Pineda, a righty, will be making his first start of the season. He had a 4.21 FIP last year, and has had a FIP over 4.00 in each of MLB's last three full seasons.
In his one season as a Blue Jay, Marcus Semien ($4,200) posted 45 home runs and stole 15 bases. Those are gaudy numbers, but in 2019 he had 33 homers and 10 stolen bases, and he's been a double-digit guy in both categories basically his entire career. Marcus Gonzales has had one good start and one terrible start this season, which is why he has a 3.00 ERA but a 6.83 FIP. Last year, he had a 5.27 FIP as well.
Bargain Bats
While Ty France ($4,200) only brings a pinch of power, he's a steady, reliable, and overlooked bat. Across the last three seasons, though this year is a small-sample size of course, he's slashed .292/.369/.450. Taylor Hearn has spent most of his career pitching out of the bullpen for the Rangers, but even so he has a career 4.79 ERA.
It's been a bit since Daniel Vogelbach ($4,100) hit 30 home runs for the Mariners, and even that season he hit .208. That being said, his big issue is that he can't hit lefties at all. Against righties, he has a .794 OPS since 2020. Not great, but certainly not bad. "Bad" is the only way to describe Mark Leiter's first start this season, even if was at Coors Field. Allowing seven runs in 3.1 innings lifted his career ERA to 5.91.
Stacks to Consider
Cubs vs. Bryse Wilson ($5,900): Seiya Suzuki ($5,500), Willson Contreras ($4,400), Jason Heyward ($2,900)
Mark Leiter's career numbers are bad, but Wilson's numbers are almost as lousy. His career ERA is 5.54, and he's allowed 1.73 home runs per nine innings. The Pirates don't have much in the way of a stackable lineup, though I did consider it, but the Cubs have enough bats to entice me for a stack.
The beginning of Suzuki's MLB career has shown why he was a popular pick for NL Rookie of the Year. He's slashed .367/.565/.839 in MLB. You need a catcher in DraftKings' contests, and Contreras is a fine choice. He has a career .348 OBP, and he has three 20-homer seasons to his name. Heyward is streaky as a hitter, but he's a lefty, and Wilson is a righty. Last season was rough for him, but across 2019 and 2020 he slashed .255/.355/.435 with 27 homers and 10 stolen bases in 197 games.
Nationals vs. Zach Davies ($5,400): Juan Soto ($5,800), Cesar Hernandez ($3,400), Maikel Franco $2,800)
Davies was dealt to the Cubs last season and proceeded to collapse as a pitcher. He posted a 5.78 ERA, and he did it over 32 starts too. It was no fluke. This year he's made two starts and his ERA is 5.79. Hey, points for consistency. It's time for the Nationals to take the opportunity to tee off on the soft-tossing veteran.
Soto is having issues with lefties to start this season, but righties haven't stood a chance. It's not surprising, given that he's sported a 1.097 OPS against right-handed pitchers since 2020. Hernandez has been leading off, though he's off to a slow start. While his batting average dropped from .283 to .232 from 2020 to 2021, he hit a career-high 21 homers, so maybe he exchanged average for power. I wanted Josh Bell to finish out my stack, but he's day-to-day now and not expected to play Thursday. As such, I'm going with Franco at this salary hoping he keeps up his current pace at least a little longer. He's hit .280 with a .400 slugging percentage.
Diamondbacks vs. Josh Rogers ($7,300): Ketel Marte ($4,900), Carson Kelly ($3,500), Christian Walker ($3,000)
I am not feeling as enthusiastic about this stack, but with 20 teams playing I wanted to offer up three options. There is some potential in this all-righty stack against the lefty Rogers (Marte is a switch hitter who throws right handed). Rogers has a career 6.31 FIP, and since 2020 righties have hit .281 against him.
Marte is admittedly ice cold to start this season, but it's early. Since 2020 he has an 1.090 OPS against southpaws. Kelly gives you an option at catcher as well. He had a 1.018 OPS against lefties in 2021, and in 2019 he had a .348 OBP with 18 home runs. It was a few years ago that Walker hit 29 homers and stole eight bases, but he has that ability in him. Plus, in 2020 he batted .271.
