This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
As is typically the case, we have a limited slate of games Saturday night. With only 10 teams, there isn't much quality pitching and that will lead to some pretty straightforward builds. It'll be important to be a bit more creative than usual in large-field tournaments, and cash game contests are likely to feature very similar lineups.
Pitchers
Nestor Cortes ($9,600) is the second-highest pitcher on the slate and makes for an interesting discussion. His strikeout rate has fallen every month of the season (22 percent in June) and he also allowed 2.08 HR/9 in June. Some of that was inevitable regression, so perhaps we see a middle ground between Cortes's first two months and his performance of late. He draws a matchup against the Guardians on Saturday, which has been a lineup that doesn't boast much pop but also strikes out at the lowest rate in the league. I'd expect a decent floor performance from Cortes, but I wouldn't be looking for a spiked effort. Given his price, that's a tough player to roster.
Another decision point will be between Yu Darvish ($10,200) and Tyler Anderson ($9,000). Though Darvish certainly has more name value, the case for rostering him is fairly thin. Anderson has posted a better SIERA, a near-identical strikeout rate, and also draws a better matchup. Add in a cheaper salary point and – at least on paper – the case for Anderson is pretty clear.
Roster rates will condense around those three pitchers because there aren't many other appealing arms to work with. Drew Rasmussen ($8,400) is the best of the rest from a skills perspective, but he's at Toronto and is returning from a three-week absence.
Because of that, I'd rather take a chance on Josh Winckowski ($7,600). We have a very limited sample to work with, but he offers a strong groundball rate and limits walks to a reasonable degree. Winckowski willl take on a Cubs lineup that's middle-of-the-pack in most metrics. Boston should be favored in the game, giving himi a decent shot at a win.
Top Hitters
Alec Mills has only thrown 17.2 innings this season. However, that's enough time to see he's been hit hard having served up seven home runs while surrendering a 12.1 percent barrel rate. The Red Sox list lots of hitters who can make him pay, with Rafael Devers ($5,500) a prime candidate.
Speaking of lots of long balls, Triston McKenzie has given up multiple ones in six of his last eight starts. As was the case with Mills, McKenzie is up against a Yankees lineup capable of doing some damage. That makes Anthony Rizzo ($4,700) a prime candidate as someone who strikes a balance between quality of hitter and salary.
It's surprising based on his start to the season, but Brendan Rodgers ($4,400) has a .422 wOBA against lefties this season – highest on the team. The Rockies draw Dallas Keuchel on the mound, and he's only produced a 14.5 percent strikeout rate for the season. That's not ideal for any setting, but particularly not Coors Field.
Value Hitters
Ji-Man Choi ($3,300) typically hits second in the Rays' order. They'll take on Thomas Hatch on Saturday night, who's allowed 12.1 baserunners per nine in 35.2 career innings in the Majors. That should turn the Rays order over regularly and allow Choi plenty of opportunities to rack up DK points.
Jordan Luplow ($2,300) only has a short-side platoon role in Arizona, but the Diamondbacks are taking on lefty Austin Gomber. Luplow has hit either first or second in the lineup in that scenario and the hitting environment (at Coors Field) should be favorable for offense.
Cavan Biggio ($3,100) has quietly come alive at the plate having averaged 9.3 DK points per game across his last his 10 appearances.
Stacks to Consider
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks (Dallas Keuchel): Connor Joe ($3,800), Kris Bryant ($4,100), Brendan Rodgers ($4,400)
Keuchel checks all the boxes we look for when selecting hitters: a high walk rate (12.4 percent), plenty of homers (1.5 HR/9), and a lack of strikeouts (14.5 percent). Add in the aforementioned hitting environment at Coors and this looks like the top stack of the day.
Red Sox at Cubs (Alec Mills): Jarren Duran ($3,900), Rafael Devers ($5,500), J.D. Martinez ($4,800)
Mills offers the lowest walk rate of all pitchers, but he also gives up a lot of quality contact. The Red Sox are well-positioned to take advantage, particularly towards the top of the order. Duran isn't an elite player and isn't valued as such, which is a nice way to pick up savings for roster builds.
Rays vs. Blue Jays (Thomas Hatch): Yandy Diaz ($3,600), Ji-Man Choi ($3,300), Wander Franco ($4,300)
The Rays aren't a particularly strong hitting group, but Hatch has allowed a big number of baserunners in his limited big-league career. This is also a realistic stack from a salary perspective, as it would reasonably allow a Cortes-Anderson combo - or a different desired combination of high-valued pitchers.
