This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's seven-game main slate essentially forces players to choose between two incredibly dominant arms, but there are enough value plays here that we should be able to comfortably fit one of these pitchers into our lineups.
Pitching
Lucas Giolito, CWS at MIN ($10,400): Giolito will undoubtedly be a popular choice after putting up a monstrous 59.7 DraftKings points on the back of his 13-strikeout no-hitter in his last start against the Pirates, but he will have at least one specific advantage against the Twins. For as good as they are offensively it may surprise some to learn that Minnesota struggles against the fastball, holding a bottom-10 RAA against the pitch. Meanwhile, the 7.7 RAA accrued by Giolito's heater ranks as the fourth-highest mark in the league among qualified pitchers.
Brad Keller, KC vs. CLE ($6,900): It needs to be said that Keller's 4.63 xFIP makes it likely that he won't hold onto his 2.08 ERA. Still, he will be at a major discount as he takes on the Indians, who have logged a bottom-half wOBA against righty pitching this season to go along with a 24 percent strikeout rate. The win may be hard to come by in a matchup against Shane Bieber, but we don't really need Keller, who has logged at least 20 DraftKings points in three of his four starts, to do all that much in order to justify his price.
Top Hitters
Juan Soto, WAS at PHI ($5,700): Few starters have struggled as mightily as Spencer Howard in 2020, as evidenced by the 6.17 ERA he has logged in 11.2 frames. What really stands out about Howard's year thus far, though, is the fact that lefties have walloped him to the tune of an .846 slugging percentage in five innings. Soto has enjoyed more success than most against right-handed pitching this year, logging a .357 ISO and .524 wOBA in 42 at-bats.
Tim Anderson, CWS at MIN ($5,700): Rich Hill isn't the easiest pitcher to get to, but Anderson needs to be spotlighted any time there is a lefty on the mound thanks to the absurd .750 ISO(!) and .843(!) wOBA he has logged against his opposite hand in 28 at-bats. Hill may be a tough nut to crack, but we can still take a shot, as he enters the contest with a 4.68 xFIP and a 44 percent hard contact rate against right-handed hitters.
Mitch Moreland, SD at COL ($5,000): As luck would have it, Moreland's first game after being traded from the Red Sox to the Padres will be at Coors Field. Moreland has been incredible against right-handed pitching this season, as we can see from the .475 ISO and .492 wOBA he has logged in 59 at-bats. German Marquez has thrown the ball well overall this year, but the 6.18 ERA he has kept at home reminds us that very few pitchers are immune to the altitude.
Best Values
Jedd Gyorko, MIL vs. PIT ($4,200): Gyorko got off to an incredibly slow start in 2020, but the power has shown up nicely for the 31-year-old. He will head into Monday's contest against the Pirates having logged a .410 ISO in 39 at-bats. Trevor Williams has kept something of a reverse split this year, holding lefty hitters in check while allowing a .702 slugging percentage against right-handed bats in 11.1 frames.
Nick Markakis, ATL at BOS ($3,600): Markakis has quietly had a productive season in 2020, notching a .238 ISO and a .370 wOBA against righty pitchers in 42 at-bats. Colten Brewer has been fairly tough against his opposite hand this year but has allowed three homers and a 45 percent hard contact rate in 11 innings.
Erik Gonzalez, PIT at MIL ($3,500): It seems almost too good to be true to get a player who has had as much success against southpaws as Gonzalez at this price. He currently holds a .348 ISO and a .478 wOBA versus lefty opposition in 23 at-bats. Eric Lauer was optioned to the Padres' training site after being hammered in his two most recent appearances but has been recalled for the start Monday. He has allowed a .645 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters in seven innings.
Stacks to Consider
Nationals against Spencer Howard: Juan Soto, ($5,900) Asdrubal Cabrera, ($4,500) Adam Eaton, ($3,600)
Those who stack against Howard will mainly want to focus on left-handed hitters, and while there is no other lefty bat on the Nationals with even close to as much firepower as Soto, we can snag a nice value bat in Eaton, who owns a .202 ISO and .349 wOBA in 84 at-bats against righty arms.
Pirates against Eric Lauer: Kevin Newman, ($3,800) Erik Gonzalez, ($3,500) Jacob Stallings, ($2,700)
It's not often we get the opportunity to ride with a complete value stack, but the Pirates have a few sneakily good bats against lefty pitching we can use in order to exploit Lauer's struggles. This includes Stallings, who hasn't hit for power yet but holds a .472 wOBA in 17 at-bats against southpaws.
