This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
An oddly smaller 12-game slate awaits Friday night, where by in large the weather looks stable.
Pitching Breakdown
Lance Lynn ($11,700) leads the way at a price that is hard to reconcile given the name. But he's been worth 17.9 DraftKings points (DKP) or more in nine of 10, and couldn't have a much softer matchup against Detroit, who fan 26.6 of the time while posting a league-low 72 wRC+ against righties, adding a .149 ISO and .281 wOBA.
Mike Clevinger ($11,100) and Robbie Ray ($10,400) are the only two other pitchers priced in five-figures, showing how ugly a slate it is. I want no part of Ray against the Nationals, whose .346 wOBA against lefties is fourth in the league. Clevinger doesn't present much better against an Angels' side that fans only a league-low 18.9 percent of the time while ranking eighth with a .330 wOBA. Both look like GPP pivots only, and it sets up like a Lynn or bust slate if you're paying up for arms.
Of all the 8 to 9k options, Wade Miley ($9,100) looks like the best bet against lowly Seattle. The Mariners surprisingly rank 10th with a .328 wOBA against lefties but fan 26.2 percent of the time. The Astros are also heavy favorites (-270). Hard passes for me on all the other options, with James Paxton ($8,700) and Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,300) squaring off in a game that has a 10.5 run total, and Alex Wood ($8,000) and Kevin Gausman ($8,300) dueling with a lower nine-run total. Wood is making just his second appearance of the year and isn't stretched out, while Gausman allowed three homers in six innings in his last outing.
Lots of upside is present in the 7k tier, let by Steven Matz ($7,700). He put up 40.3 DKP in his last outing, conveniently against the same Pirates side he'll see Friday, one that ranks last in the league against lefties with a .282 wOBA and 73 wRC+. Jason Vargas ($7,400) makes his Phillies debut with his team being (-180) favorites against a White Sox team that has a below-average 96 wRC+ against lefties while fanning 24.6 percent of the time. Finally, there's rookie Dustin May ($7,600), making his debut against the Padres. May isn't a strikeout guy but could see a boost thanks to San Diego's 26.1 percent K rate. He's a ground ball pitcher, owning a 60.0 percent GB rate at Triple-A, while the Padres rank fifth with a 45.2 GB rate.
There's not much appeal below this price, which makes the rest of this column ripe for differentiating, but also suggests you're forced to pay for two arms.
Key Chalk/Value
We start in Coors Field, duh! A pitching matchup of Shaun Anderson ($4,500) and Peter Lambert ($5,200) with the ballpark effect is a fantasy player's dream. Anderson has allowed 20 runs over his last 23.1 innings and is surrendering a .416 wOBA to righties on the road. He allowed five runs in 4.1 frames in an earlier start at Coors. Trevor Story ($5,400), Nolan Arenado ($5,200) and Ian Desmond ($4,400) should be sprinkled throughout lineups. The Giants' side is must more stackable thanks to price. Lambert is allowing a .414 wOBA to lefties, and while I wouldn't enjoy paying for Mike Yastrzemski ($5,000), his form merits consideration. Brandon Belt's ($4,000) doesn't, which makes him a great cheap buy in. Buster Posey ($4,400) is in better form but doesn't present as favorably. It's a stiff price to pay for his position, but one that looks correct honestly.
I didn't hide my distain for Yankee and Red Sox pitchers above, as both teams swing well against lefties. J.D. Martinez ($4,800) is the fourth-highest priced Boston bat and is annihilating lefties with a .535 wOBA, 239 wRC+ and .500 ISO. Andrew Benintendi ($4,700) is white hot and worth considering despite the LvL matchup. In the other dugout, terrible form has Aaron Judge ($3,900) priced so low he flirts with must-own status despite a 1-for-15 line against Rodriguez. His .424 wOBA against lefties still leads Yankee regulars. DJ LeMahieu ($4,600) and Edwin Encarnacion ($4,300) also have wOBAs north of .400.
Astro bats are going to be popular as well against Yusei Kikuchi ($5,000), who has allowed nine runs, 16 hits and four homers in his last two starts (11.2 innings). Queue up Jose Altuve ($5,000) and his .522 wOBA, 239 wRC+ and .413 ISO liberally, while Carlos Correa ($4,600) hasn't seen his price climb five games into his return to action.
Rangers figure to be trendy on this slate as well against lefty Tyler Alexander ($6,400), who has very weird splits. At home, he's posting a 1.29 ERA but 6.45 xFIP, while on the road he has a 5.79 ERA but 2.76 xFIP. The target appears to be opposite-handed bats, as Alexander surrenders a .417 wOBA to them on the road. Unfortunately, the Rangers are loaded with lefties in their lineup, which is why I won't stack them Friday. Hunter Pence ($4,800) is the obvious play here, while Elvis Andrus ($4,200) is the slightly less clear choice.
An unconfirmed starter for Toronto has the run total unlisted as of submission, but it looks like long-reliever Sam Gaviglio ($5,900) will open up against Aaron Brooks ($4,800). They carry a 4.39 xFIP and 5.13 xFIP, respectively, and likely won't inspire much confidence. The Blue Jays' side appears to carry better value, with Bo Bichette ($4,200) white hot and affordable, and Freddy Galvis ($3,900) seemingly always priced to buy. Jonathan Villar ($4,600) looks like a sound option from the Orioles' lineup given the moderate price and form, having posted double-digit DKP in five of seven, topping 20 points four times.
Stacks
Twins vs. Glenn Sparkman (Royals)
Jorge Polanco (SS - $4,700), Nelson Cruz (OF - $5,500), Max Kepler (OF - $5,200)
Sparkman has allowed 12 runs over his last 10.2 innings, surrendering five homers in the process. He's also allowed three long balls while fanning only six Twins in 12.0 innings this season. He's been far more vulnerable on the road, too, owning an 8.10 FIP and 6.59 xFIP, allowing a .475 wOBA to lefties and a .403 wOBA to righties. Polanco's .251 ISO is the lowest of this trio, but his .395 wOBA and 147 wRC+ are the highest. This stack isn't cheap, and there's prolific power throughout the Twins lineup, so there are some interchangeable options.
Diamondbacks vs. Joe Ross (Nationals)
Ketel Marte (2B/OF - $4,800), David Peralta (OF - $4,000), Christian Walker (1B - $4,100)
Ross carries a 9.85 ERA into Friday, and while his 5.41xFIP doesn't fully support that bloated number, it's still not great. He's allowing a .530 wOBA and 1.154 to lefties, immediately making Marte and Peralta preferred choices, as they carry a .386 and .372 wOBA, respectively. The third piece is interchangeable, but Walker's .249 ISO works well in this spot.
Indians vs. Dillon Peters (Angels)
Jordan Luplow (OF - $4,400), Jose Ramirez (3B - $4,800), Roberto Perez (C - $3,800)
Peters' 5.44 xFIP is more indicative of his ability than his 3.06 ERA, and he's coming off of an outing where he allowed five runs and seven hits over just four innings to Baltimore. With a 9.5 run total on this game, and Clevinger having allowed one run or less in four of his last five, the Tribe will have to carry that number. He's been far more generous to righties, allowing a .420 wOBA. Luplow has a robust team-leading .449 wOBA, 182 wRC+ and .388 ISO against southpaws, though I am a little worried his playing time isn't safe with the additions of Yasiel Puig ($4,100) and Franmil Reyes ($3,900), both of whom profile well here. Ramirez hasn't hit lefties terrifically this year, but does have a .346 ISO against them since July 1, striking out only 3.7 percent of the time. He's been unlucky with a .167 BABIP, and putting the ball in play here should lead to better results against Peters. Perez offers some savings/a cheap buy into this lineup and has power upside.
