Collette Calls: You Should Find My Lack of Belief in Bieber Disturbing

I dove into Corbin Burnes last week to show how his rise in 2020 was more than just simple BABIP and HR/FB regression and where his improvement came from. I am enjoying his resurgence in 2020 because I wrote about him in my Bold Prediction series, included him in the Value in the Scrap Heap article for the annual and recommended him to anyone who asked while targeting him in every draft possible. 

This week, we will swing the other way to look into a pitcher I did not like for 2020 who has spent the entire season pitching as if he read my piece and, every time he takes the baseball, has been doing what Rick Vaughn said he would do to Lou Brown in Major League. I'm talking about Shane Bieber, who I said would not be a top-20 pitcher in 2020 but is currently the top pitcher in our Earned Auction Value tool. 

First off, I am truly sorry if my guidance led you to avoid Bieber at his price in drafts.  I had my reasons, which we will get into, but I can't recall a time where my suggestion to fade a player in my Bold Prediction series went THIS badly where the player ended up contending for the Cy Young or MVP.  This is what I said about Bieber in late January with a very ominous qualifier in the opening paragraph:

Bieber is the eighth pitcher off the board with an ADP of 27 and a range from 19 to 36. This prediction may feel a little like being the guy who did not vote for Derek Jeter for the Hall of Fame so he could tell his friends he was the guy who kept him from going in unanimously, but hear me out. 

Yes, Bieber had the fifth-best K-BB% of all qualified starters last year at 26 percent trailing only the first- and second-place finishers for the Cy Young in each league. His swinging strike rate, 14 percent, was also in the top 10 overall in that same group. However, Bieber's Z-Contact% — his contact rate on pitches thrown in the strike zone, is very close to the middle of the pack at 27th out of 62 qualified pitchers. His 85.8 percent Z-Contact% in 2019 puts him in line with Kyle Hendricks, Merrill Kelly, Jeff Samardzija, and Patrick Corbin.

He is a few clicks above the line, meaning his SwSTR% is very much dependent on him staying ahead in the count as batters hit him much better when he has to come in the zone. When Bieber was ahead in the count in 2019, he had an 18 percent SwSTR% and an 84 percent Z-Contact%. In all other counts, his Z-Contact% held steady, but his SwSTR% dropped to 13 percent. When he was up in the count, he held batters to a .176 average with a 1.99 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. When he was even or down in the count, batters hit .303 against him, and he had a 5.31 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in those situations. As long as Bieber can execute his pitches with excellent command, his chances of being a top-10 pitcher are good. If it falters, his super powers lose their luster quite a bit. We cannot forget to factor in a better lineup in the division on the south side of Chicago and an even more robust lineup in Minnesota as well. Bieber will have only so many matchups against Kansas City and Detroit. 

I'm also concerned with the fact Bieber has thrown 408 innings the last two season of professional baseball at his age 24 and 25 seasons. It feels a bit like Carlos Martinez, who threw a similar number innings at the same ages, and has had issues since. Simply put, this has been a lot of words to say I'm zigging while the crowd is clearly zagging toward Bieber Fever. 

In my defense, at least I had my reasons and was not pulling stuff out of thin air to make a bold prediction. Let's break down each part of the reasoning to see where things stand now, as well as look into anything Bieber is doing differently in 2020.

Bieber's Z-Contact%

Bieber was an outlier last season in that he generated a high amount of swinging strikes despite batters making high overall contact against him. Guess what? He is doing that again this year, at a higher level:

Bieber continues to stand out from the crowd here as the list below shows how he compares to other starters (min 30 IP) who have identical Z-Contact rates:

It is not a surprise to see his rate double that of Martin Perez's, given the latter only has one real swing-and-miss pitch while Bieber has a handful, but he is once again outperforming the pack. 

Bieber Struggles When He Falls Behind

Bieber threw 20 percent of his pitches in 2019 when he was behind in the count, and that number has remained mostly unchanged in 2020 with 19 percent of his pitches coming when he is down in the count. In fact, the outcomes on pitches when he is down in the count is mostly unchanged this year with just a five-point difference in his 2020 wOBA (.363) from his 2019 wOBA (.358). 

Where things get ridiculous is in all other counts. The league has a .178 wOBA against Bieber when he is either ahead or even in the count, and a .109 wOBA when he is ahead in the count. In fact, just over half of the plate appearances where Bieber has been even or ahead in the count has resulted in a strikeout with 84 strikeouts in 166 such plate appearances. Bieber is not falling behind in counts any less than he did last year, but he is making life more miserable for hitters when he takes the high ground in the count. 

Bieber's Strength of Schedule

 "Bieber will have only so many matchups against Kansas City and Detroit." This statement was made pre-pandemic and the changes to the schedule Bieber has made eight starts in 2020, with four  coming against Kansas City, Detroit or Pittsburgh. He has shut those teams out over 25 innings  with 45 strikeouts. However, he has allowed just two runs against the Twins in 14 innings while striking out 23 hitters. His "worst" outing was against the resurgent White Sox, and even that outing came through as a quality start. He has been unscored upon in five of his eight outings, and has not cared about the quality of his opponent.

Bieber's Workload Concerns

The loss of 62 percent of the season eschewed this concern, and although his innings pitched total by game are declining, his pitch count management has been rather steady. Bieber has thrown no fewer than 97 pitches in any outing this season while never exceeding 106 pitches. They have maintained their usage patterns of him in this short season with no signs of it impacting his performance unlike so many other of his peers this season.

So How Is He Doing This?

Bieber is a good lesson in that StatCast profiles do not tell us everything. The image below is not what you would expect to see for the top pitcher in fantasy baseball:

Yet, it mostly backs up what my concerns were heading into the season for him. He can do exceedingly well as long as the batter doesn't get the advantage in the count, but can be punished for mistakes because he lacks the velocity to get away with mistakes as other pitchers do. That is happening again this year, but he is just limiting his mistakes at an elite level so the opportunities for damage are limited. He has also made some changes as to how he executes his craft:

What do you do when you don't have great fastball velocity? Throw fewer fastballs. The reduction of his four-seamer coincides with his reduction of his slider, but notice the new red dot in 2020 as Bieber quietly broke out a new pitch during Summer Camp — the cutter. 

The pitch doesn't get great results (.365 xwOBA), but its presence gives him a five-pitch repertoire to throw at hitters, and he uses all five pitches to both righties and lefties. Often pitchers will have three to four pitchers in their repertoire, but the usage depends on the hitters. Righties will throw fastballs and changeups to lefties, but bag the changeup for a cutter or a breaking ball to righties. Not Bieber. He has four pitches with double-digit utilizations against both righties and lefties in 2020.

 Overall, this is how he attacked hitters in 2019:

A heavy dose of fastballs, with breaking balls to both sides and changeups all over the place. This year, he has mixed things up to give batters a new look:

The cutter gives him three pitches at different velocities and angles to move away from righties or come in against lefties while the changeup continues to be an option when he is facing lefty hitters as he has thrown just two to righties all season. The cutter is the magic sauce, so let's  look at how it has helped him both against righties and lefties. First, against southpaws, the pattern emerges:

Bieber uses his four-seamer mostly away to lefties, but will pair it with cutters running in forcing hitters to respect the inside and not lean out. He has the changeup if they're getting away and get away, but also the curve to force hitters to change eye levels. Bieber essentially forces hitters to cover all quadrants of the zone with how he attacks them. The pattern against righties has a different look:

Bieber mostly works righties away while changing eye levels with the breaking balls and getting weaker contact with the cutter when hitters are seeing fastball. He has done surprisingly little pitching inside against righties, but the fact he can spin four different offerings to them does not allow batters the luxury of zoning in on just outer half location. They can look away, but which of the four offerings are they going to get?

Simply put, the addition of a new pitch to a pitcher who pitches with a very high level of command has added complexity to hitters they really were not asking for. Pitching is more than just velocity, and Bieber has done a tremendous job of improving his craft this year to make up for what he does not have while accentuating what he does extremely well.

I hope he wins the Cy Young even though I chose Kenta Maeda for that award before the season began.