Collette Calls: Packing Their Bags?

I'm back in the saddle after a busy week of activity beginning with my eldest graduating high school on Monday and ending with a family reunion in the Fort Myers area. While I took a week off from writing this column and from my weekly radio appearance on the Saturday Rotowire SiriusXM show, I was still rather tuned into baseball, using the flexible vacation schedule to take in the Rays' West Coast games as well as tuning into a variety of games over the week. How can you not love what the Reds (who happen to be the unofficial favorite team of the site staff) are doing right now, or how the Giants have similarly turned their season around at the same time? It's hot streaks like these which delay the Hot Stove market because teams see dreams become reality with a change in fortune. 

The reality is that both teams still have an uphill climb to make the playoffs, but I would much rather be the Giants than the Reds today:

Cincinnati still faces an uphill climb to make the postseason, but they're not the only club in that shape right now. As play begins on June 22nd, 17 of the 30 squads find their playoff odds below 50 percent; that dark blue line at the top is those Amazing Mets:

These teams have decisions to make right now whether they try to chase that dream or call it a season and move onto the next stanza of the Nth-year plan. The fantasy implications of this are simple: dumping teams flood the trade market with expiring or expensive contracts, and it shakes up the playing time and/or roles on contending teams. There is also the impact in mono-leagues with old school rules (which force owners to drop players who get traded to the other league) as well as the impact of crossover talent in weekly FAAB activity. This will be a two-part series, with next week's installment focused on hitters and this week's looking at the pitching which could hit the market. 

American League Sellers

Los Angeles Angels (35.8% chance)

The Angels are playing well of late, but their postseason odds are still stacked against them. They've recently lost Anthony Rendon (this is my shocked face), Gio Urshela and Zach Neto to injury, forcing the light-hitting Andrew Velasquez and the no-hitting Jared Walsh into the lineup more than either guy should be. Shohei Ohtani's contract is up at the end of the season and many expect him to take a Lyft ride up I-5 to join his new team next season, but this situation will dominate the trade rumors the next few weeks. I personally expect the Angels to chase the dream and let the cards fall where they may, but it could take just one bad week of play for that course to change. Matt Moore is also an unrestricted free agent (UFA) after the season and has had a nice bounceback season, before his most recent injury. If the Angels decide to sell, Moore could also find some fantasy value in deeper leagues with a new team. 

Boston Red Sox (23.4% chance)

James Paxton is a UFA after the season and has pitched extremely well since coming off the injured list. He has pitched all of 60 innings since the end of the 2019 season, but lefties pumping gas like this do not grow on trees and he has a 51:11 K:BB ratio in his seven starts this season. There is not a team in baseball that wouldn't benefit from a healthy Paxton should Boston's fortunes not improve in the coming weeks. There is also the outside chance they deal Kenley Jansen in advance of his final year.

Seattle Mariners (16.8% chance)

Seattle has no pitchers with expiring contracts on the 40-man roster.

Chicago White Sox (5.0% chance)

The White Sox have been a hot disappointing mess this season and their pitching staff is part of that equation. They have six healthy pitchers with either club options, mutual options or expiring contracts. Liam Hendriks has a club option but is currently on the IL with a sore elbow and his trade value thus suffers. The club would be better off waiting until that situation is resolved. Mike Clevinger has a mutual option, but he too is hurt and was not pitching well prior to his injury. Lance Lynn, fresh off his best start of the season, has an $18M option the club is almost guaranteed not to pick up, and perhaps a change of scenery for Lynn could help him rediscover what once made him effective . Lucas Giolito is a UFA, and has looked more like his 2021 self this season than his 2022 mess, although homers continue to be a problem for him. The right change in ballpark could help offset that, but that limits his potential trade destinations. Joe Kelly has an expensive club option, but his recent performance has likely diminished his trade value, while Chicago may take just about anything to move Reynaldo Lopez's expiring contract somewhere in the coming weeks. Reliever volatility makes it tough to write off the last two players, but Lopez has not even had a good week of work this season while Kelly did at least have a strong run for four or five weeks earlier this season.

Detroit Tigers (2.5% chance)

It was not that long ago that the Tigers were within spitting distance of the lead in the AL Central, but that quickly changed when then went 1-9 over their next 10 games. They have two names that will be interesting on the trade market: the currently injured Eduardo Rodriguez and the surprising Michael Lorenzen. Rodriguez has an opt out he can exercise this winter, and he was pitching like someone determined to do so until the finger pulley injury derailed him. Should Rodriguez give them hint he wants to opt out, Detroit would certainly trade him, but he would also be leaving a guaranteed $49M on the table. Rodriguez doesn't have the best health track record, so it would be a huge risk for him. Lorenzen has pitched effectively this year without much run support, and there are several contenders that could use his talents in their rotation. A change in run support could do his fantasy value some wonders, as he has just two wins out of six quality starts this season. 

Kansas City Royals (0.0% chance)

They are the worst team for a reason, but Aroldis Chapman is still throwing 102 mph around the walks and that's going to find a new home somewhere. That said, that command is going to keep him out of a closer role wherever he lands as contenders do not have the patience for that drama. Brad Keller and Zack Greinke are also UFA's, but I do not see any newfound fantasy value coming from anyone leaving this team unless said pitcher can vulture some wins in a relief role. 

Oakland Athletics (0.0% chance)

Trevor May and Shintaro Fujinami are the names to watch here. Fujinami wants to start, but that's a pipe dream. Both of these guys are relievers, but the occasional save in Oakland for May would dry up as he finds a new home and Fujinami simply does not throw enough strikes to be trusted in such a role. 

National League Sellers

San Diego Padres (46.9% chance)

The Padres are close enough to the picture where it's unlikely they sell, especially with how well Blake Snell has been pitching of late. He's 3-1 over his last seven outings with a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio in that time while allowing three homers in 40 innings. He is a UFA after this season, and he's now finally pitching like it again. Josh Hader is in the exact same situation but has been excelling all season in the closer role. The club has a $16M option on Nick Martinez as well as a $16M mutual option for Michael Wacha. San Diego has the Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Angels and Mets heading into the All-Star Break. They also have the Phillies, Jays, Tigers and Pirates coming out of the break. That kind of schedule could greatly increase their chances over the next four weeks, but this situation bears watching given the impact these names could have on the trade market. 

Milwaukee Brewers (46.8% chance)

The NL Central is anyone's game, and Milwaukee is best positioned to take it, making it unlikely they sell off. Wade Miley has a mutual $10M option, but the real story is what the club will do with Corbin Burnes, who was noticeably unhappy with his latest arbitration hearing experience. I expect Milwaukee to add on the fringes rather than sell, and they have a rather favorable schedule up until the trade deadline with six games against Atlanta toward the end of July being the biggest challenge.

Philadelphia Phillies (39.0% chance)

I may be biased here because one of my best friends is a huge Phillies fan and all he tells me is how much he hates watching this team. Yet, they're two games over .500 and have a decent chance to make the playoffs. They're coming off a sweep at the hands of Atlanta and have a six-game Florida road trip before the All-Star break with a tough July schedule in front of them. Philadelphia's fate is truly in their own hands, and the expiring contracts of both Aaron Nola and Craig Kimbrel would loom large on the trading market should the club decide to look to the future. 

Chicago Cubs (22.0% chance)

Chicago has Marcus Stroman pitching as well as he ever has, with a $21M player option decision coming at season's end where he could decide to cash it in. The Cubs also have a $16M club option with Kyle Hendricks, and Michael Fulmer is on a one-year deal. Each of these pitchers could have fantasy value down the stretch in the right scenario should Chicago decide the long-term play is better than a postseason chance given their roster is not exactly built to go toe-to-toe with the bigger rosters of the National League. 

Cincinnati Reds (21.5% chance)

It has been a different season since Cincinnati promoted Elly De La Cruz, but they still face huge odds in making the postseason. That said, their only pitching UFAs are Luke Weaver, Buck Farmer, and Hunter Strickland, so them becoming sellers would focus on potentially finding Joey Votto a nice going-away present more than anything else. 

New York Mets (20.7% chance)

Where to begin with this mess? Max Scherzer has a $43M player option, but he would be foolish to give that up the way his season has gone unless he just wants to escape from New York. Carlos Carrasco and David Robertson are both UFAs and could be moved should the front office make that call. Brooks Raley has a very affordable club option for next season, but his skills could also bring a nice return on a reliever-thirsty trade market. 

St. Louis Cardinals (13.4% chance)

This is the club I am most closely watching for trade activity. Adam Wainwright, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks are each UFAs this season and could have more fantasy value in a new address, particularly Montgomery, who once again is getting little run support. They have the Cubs, Astros, Yankees and Marlins on their immediate schedule, which could help accelerate the rather obvious decisions St. Louis has in front of them. 

Pittsburgh Pirates (3.7% chance)

Pittsburgh was a fun early story, but they've fallen on hard times of late and are back to a familiar lot in life. Rich Hill's experience is almost certain to be flipped somewhere, but that's the only pitcher with a modicum of fantasy value in deeper leagues. 

Colorado Rockies (0.0% chance)

Pierce Johnson and Brent Suter are UFAs after the season while Brad Hand has a $7M club option. Two of those names have the ever-popular "closer experience" label, while Suter's arm angles and below-radar speed has had some value to clubs in the past. Relocations are unlikely to help any of these three provide fantasy value down the stretch. 

Washington Nationals (0.0% chance)

Yes, the Nationals should sell whatever they have that isn't part of their future. The problem here is they have nothing of value on expendable pitchers with their four expiring contracts in Carl Edwards Jr., Chad Kuhl, Sean Doolittle and Wily Peralta as they try to forget how much dead money they have committed to Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg.

In summary, the pitching trade market looks bleak at the moment until other teams indicate what direction they want to go with the franchise. There are enough expiring contracts or options out there to flood the market if multiple teams punt to 2024, but the lack of a clear favorite in either Central Division is certainly a factor which cannot be overlooked if this trade deadline is more of a whisper than a bang.