Collette Calls: Callouts

My apologies for a delayed column this week as a few life events, both planned and unplanned took precedence this week. This column mostly takes a look at a singular topic each week, but every now and then I like to discuss multiple observations as I continue to look at the numbers and this is one of those times. 

We May Have a Quiet Trade Deadline

The fantasy relevance of this topic is that I know there are some of you who choose to hoard your FAAB dollars for the trade deadline in mono-league formats looking for the biggest names who flip leagues and can move the needle in the standings down the stretch. Mixed leaguers do the same, as trades create playing time for other players on the roster as well. The real-life implications are obvious in that fans hope their favorite team will get that much needed reliever (looking at you, Rays) or that missing bat in the lineup to prepare for the stretch run. As play begins the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend, we could very well be in for a quiet trade deadline given the current standings.

The divisional stories are fascinating. The AL East has three teams which have enough wins to be the first place team in either Central division, yet Baltimore and and New York are 4 and 8 games behind Tampa Bay respectively. Only Minnesota has a winning record in the AL Central, while the 22-31 White Sox are just five games out of the lead for that division. Texas, despite bludgeoning most opposing pitching staffs, hasn't been able to distance itself more by than 3 games from a very dinged up Houston roster. The National League has 7 of its 15 teams over .500, with Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Arizona showcasing the best records (more on Arizona later.)  The larger story in the National League is that every team is no more than five games out of contention for a wildcard spot:

It is tough to imagine any club making the decision to pull the plug on hopes and dreams that are this attainable. After all, it was just a few years ago Washington was in this area of the standings and then went on to win the World Series. Admittedly, their roster that season was immeasurably better than it is today, but just look over to the NHL where the Florida Panthers knocked off three heavily favored teams in a row to reach the Stanley Cup finals after barely sneaking into the playoffs. This National League situation will eventually play itself out, but as long as the standings are this close, one would expect teams to continue resisting the urge to cut and run from the race. 

The AL story is a bit different with two teams definitively out of contention: 

Oakland is what they are, and they're not exactly flush with desirable trade pieces for contenders. Trevor May, Tony Kemp, Shintaro Fujinami and Jesus Aguilar are each unrestricted free agents after this season, but none of those names are cracking any other starting lineup. Jace Peterson has an affordable 2024 deal which could make him an interesting trade piece for a team looking for a versatile player, while Ramon Laureano comes with more commitment and appears to be someone in desperate need of a change of scenery. Laureano, since returning from the injured list on April 29th, is hitting .188/.198/.353 and has as many walks as you and me in his last 86 plate appearances. The pitching side of their roster is simply wholly unattractive or understandably unavailable. Oakland has to have something for the future, so holding onto Mason Miller and JP Sears makes sense for them, but there is a reason why this club is giving up seven runs a game.

Kansas City is not much better. Zack Greinke and Brad Keller are both unrestricted free agents after this season for any team interested in adding pitching depth for the stretch. Neither is sexy, but beggars can't be choosers in this marketplace where starting pitchers continue to go down with injuries. The biggest pitching trade chip the team has is Aroldis Chapman and his revived velocity. Chapman's strikeout rate is back near its peak levels, but his walk rate remains abysmal for anyone wishcasting him into a potential closing situation on a new team as he is walking 15 percent of the batters he's facing for a third consecutive season. Perhaps a winning environment can fix some of that, but just 12 of his 20 outings this season have been clean of walks. Scott Barlow could be on the market, as he's just one year away from free agency, and it would make sense for Kansas City to cash that chip in, which also means they likely won't. Matt Duffy and Jackie Bradley Jr. are the club's only unrestricted free agents while the rest of the hitting roster is in the early stages of salary and the club doesn't have a reason to deal anyone. Simply put, there is a reason this team is as bad as it is.

The rest of the AL is an intriguing story because teams low in the standings still have a shot at their division. Nobody is running away with the AL Central, so the underperforming White Sox and Guardians are still in the divisional race while the Tigers currently sit in second place despite being three games below .500. 

Simply put, the hot stove has no fuel and few sources to stoke the flames as things stand now. A hot streak or a prolonged slump can certainly change some narratives, but there is a reason why the transaction wire has been dominated by callups and demotions rather than trades because there is a big supply problem on the trade market.

Power and Steals

I have recently begun sharing some bi-monthly data on Twitter looking at how each team is doing in steals and homers, from both sides of the ledger. I have put together a sheet showing each team's net steals (steals generated minus steals allowed), a similar stat for homers, and then a combined net stat for each team. The most recent version of these numbers are shown below:

The conditional formatting shows which teams are excelling and struggling in each area. If you are looking for a reason why Arizona is where it is in the standings, look no further than how awesome they've been in controlling the running game while also being very efficient on the bases. Conversely, the White Sox have done themselves no favors by doing poorly in preventing steals and allowing many more homers than their lineup has hit to date. Chicago is certainly not alone in their struggles, as Toronto has continued to underperform expectations. Conversely, Atlanta is doing a wonderful job with their net homers while breaking even with steals, and my favorite club is at the top of the list mainly due to their volume of stealing bases and hitting homers, as they certainly haven't done a good job preventing steals.

Tampa Bay's stolen base volume of late has been something to behold as they've swiped 41 bases as a team in May, nearly lapping the rest of the league in steals.  While Esteury Ruiz continues to pace the league in steals, Wander Franco leads the Rays with 12 steals in May but has plenty of company helping him on the bases. Josh Lowe, Taylor Walls and Luke Raley each have at least five steals this month with Raley being the most surprising given he's more the lumbering type than the other two more athletic players. Raley just takes some time to get moving, as his top 25th percentile sprint speed means he's not exactly a statue, but he had 35 steals in a professional career which began in 2016 and now has six this month alone in seven attempts. To be fair, seven of the Ray' 41 steals came in one game when Alejandro Kirk was behind the plate, as the league is certainly testing Toronto's abilities to slow the running game this year. 

The league as a whole continues to steal bases successfully at a 79 percent rate, which has the league on pace to attempt more than 4,000 steals for the first time since 2012. You will recall from an earlier installment of this column that the league hasn't eclipsed 3,300 steals since 1999, but the current pace has the league potentially stealing as many as 3,400 bases this season. The league has played approximately 32.1 percent of the schedule already and teams are 31.7 percent of the way to the projected stolen base total of 3,414, assuming a 79 percent success rate. This is the new world order for steals and it's here to stay, as the success rate continues to hover in the 79-81 percent range one-third of the way into the season. 

Finally, to close on a down note, part of my unplanned activities this week was the sudden passing of my Aunt Nancy. She and my Uncle Mel were the ones who introduced me to American League baseball in 1988 by taking me to this game at old Baltimore Memorial Stadium when I was 15 and visiting them. It was also at this game I tried beer for the first time as they sent me up in line to buy two Heinekens to see if the vendors thought I looked old enough. I wasn't even challenged for an ID while they waited in the shadows, but that's why they were the cool aunt and uncle. Aunt Nancy also introduced me to new music types and artists and one of those songs was the one my wife and I used for our first dance at our wedding. She was much more into basketball than baseball and was a huge fan of Gregg Popovich and the Spurs even though she spent her entire life living in the Delmarva area after a career in project management and a side passion of cooking. We last connected in December when my son and I traveled up to the area to watch UCF crap the bed in a bowl game, but I'm glad we got the chance to visit her because she meant a lot to me and my cousins as the only family member to graduate from college and one who went on to mentor and motivate the rest of us to pursue our professional passions. She never had any children of her own but served in a maternal role to so many over the years and will be missed.