Closer Encounters: Buyer Beware

In case you missed it, I recently released my initial 2022 Closer Rankings. Not much has changed since then given we're still under the MLB lockout, but as I have been drafting for saves, certain "closers" have left me squeamish. As a Cleveland baseball fan, the feeling is akin to watching Jose Mesa on the mound in Game 7 of the 1997 World Series.

I'm sure I am not alone.

As of this Thursday, roughly two-thirds of MLB teams lack a clear primary closer. This article will touch on several relief pitchers I'm cautious of in 2022 drafts. A few are being drafted by the market as "the guy," which may or may not be correct given the limited information available now. Once free agency and trading resume, we need to be prepared for the flurry of roster moves that will impact closer hierarchies and possibly our approach to drafting saves. Until we receive more clarity among the remaining teams, I will continue to be part of the contingent that targets saves early in drafts.

BUYER BEWARE

Corey Knebel, RP, Phillies - Knebel was once an elite closer, posting 39 saves with a 1.78 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 14.9 K/9 in 76 innings for Milwaukee in 2017. Since then, he's missed time in every season due to injury, including the entire 2019 campaign after Tommy John surgery. Last year with the Dodgers, he missed nearly four months with a lat strain, though he did pitch well in his limited 25.2 inning sample. Now with Philadelphia, Knebel is being drafted as the Phillies' closer with a 164.75 ADP across 40 NFBC drafts since Feb. 1. As Philadelphia's roster stands, he simply does not have much competition for the role. Jose Alvarado is wildly erratic, while Connor Brogdon and Sam Coonrod are unproven and Seranthony Dominguez has yet to re-establish himself after missing nearly two full seasons to Tommy John surgery. However, look at Philadelphia's depth chart and the team's bullpen stats the last two seasons. It's safe to assume they're not done addressing their relief corps. 

Could the Phillies get creative and shift Ranger Suarez back to a relief role? As Matt Gelb of The Athletic noted in a recent Phillies mailbag, it will be difficult to replace the innings that Hector Neris, Ian Kennedy and Archie Bradley provided from last season's bullpen. Counting on the oft-injured Knebel, who has missed a combined 350 days on the IL the last four seasons, to put a significant dent in those lost innings would be quite risky. Therefore, I believe Philadelphia will look to add at least two more relief pitchers once the lockout concludes. The big question I have is whether one of those pitchers will be a closer. I think this is a strong possibility and is one of the main reasons I'm fading Knebel at his current draft cost. I'm confident he will pitch in a high leverage role, but I'm not confident in his innings, nor that said role will be closing. Although he is my 17th-ranked closer with 19 projected saves, my next rankings update likely will reflect a lower ranking and save projection.

Blake Treinen, RP, Dodgers - I still have flashbacks to 2019 when Treinen was drafted as the second closer by consensus and finished the year with a 4.91 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and only 16 saves for Oakland. Fortunately, he enjoyed a renaissance as the Dodgers' setup man last year, leading the majors with 32 holds while posting his best line since his remarkable 2018 season. The 33-year-old compiled a 1.99 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and seven saves, filling in at closer when Kenley Jansen was unavailable. His 83.3 mph average exit velocity ranked among the league leaders. A change in his pitch mix, cutting his sinker usage in half while relying more on his slider and cutter, might have been the biggest reason for his turnaround. Now his pathway to saves is seemingly clear with Jansen a free-agent and uncertain to return to Los Angeles. 

So why am I fading my 11th-ranked closer? For starters, Jansen could still return to L.A. and reclaim the closer role he's held the last decade. In the event Jansen doesn't re-sign with the Dodgers, Treinen still isn't guaranteed the primary save share. Among the alternatives on the roster, Daniel Hudson offers plenty of experience in high-leverage situations, while Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol are exciting young arms expected take another step forward in 2022. Graterol, in particular, throws the 100 mph heat often desired from a closer. The Dodgers could also trade for Jansen's replacement, or sign someone less heralded like Trevor Rosenthal or Brad Boxberger to enter the mix for saves. Treinen's current ranking assumes Dave Roberts names him the closer, but I wonder if his best role is a more flexible one in high leverage? No matter what happens, he will certainly get save chances, but I believe how many he receives hinges on his strikeout rate, which has been inconsistent throughout his career, fluctuating between 19 and 32 percent. 

Camilo Doval, RP, Giants - I'll be honest, I drafted Doval (ADP 177) at pick 158 in my first NFBC draft in November. His late-season dominance was still so fresh in my mind after he closed out 2021 with a 4-0 record and three saves in 14.1 scoreless innings. He even served as the Giants' closer during the NLDS with all of their relievers available. Doval's upside is tremendous, with the potential to become a top-5 closer thanks to a wipeout slider and a fastball that nearly topped out at 102 mph. While his high-leverage future is bright, banking on him being San Francisco's full-time closer in 2022 might be a mistake due to his small sample of success and history of poor control (career 5.1 BB/9 in minors). We simply can't count on him replicating last September's numbers over the course of a full season. Not to mention, Jake McGee (ADP 273) is back for 2022 after leading the Giants with 31 saves last year. Doval will certainly get his share of save chances, but projecting how many is difficult. I have Doval for 17 saves, with McGee earning 15. I'm realizing that might be too light for McGee and I'd much rather take the 100-pick discount than target Doval in rounds 11-12. Expect some movement for both relievers in my next rankings update.

Robert Suarez, Pierce Johnson, RP, Padres - The departure of 2021 MLB saves leader Mark Melancon left a void at closer and Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported a committee is possible to start the season. Suarez earned 42 saves last year in Japan and is being drafted first among San Diego's relievers, but the market isn't confident he'll collect many saves based on his February NFBC ADP (467).  Johnson (485.7) is right behind him, followed by Emilio Pagan (649), Drew Pomeranz (668) and Luis Garcia (673) nearly 200 picks later. Among them, Pagan has the most closer experience with 22 career saves, but he was awful last year with a 2.3 HR/9. Pomeranz is arguably San Diego's best reliever, but he underwent surgery for a torn flexor tendon last August and has had trouble staying healthy in recent years. Dinelson Lamet (414) has similar concerns despite some offseason buzz that he could potentially slide into the role. Quite frankly, all the options listed have questions surrounding them and might be better suited for middle-relief or setup roles. It's fair to speculate whether the Padres' closer is currently on their roster. Colleague Scott Jenstad recently predicted on the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball podcast that Craig Kimbrel will be the Padres' closer on Opening Day. He also reminded us that new manager Bob Melvin has history with Pagan in Oakland. Overall, there are just far too many questions in San Diego. Suarez and Johnson won't cost you much in drafts, so the risk is minimal, but I'm still avoiding them at their February ADP. There are still many hitters being drafted in their range that should get semi-regular at-bats. If I'm speculating on a Padres' reliever for saves, I'm going to wait 200 picks and draft Garcia.