Closer Encounters: 2024 Relief Market Primer

Last season, there were 18 trades involving relief pitchers in the final week before the MLB trade deadline. There were 25-plus trades involving relievers overall, highlighted by Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks, Jordan Hicks to the Blue Jays and David Robertson to the Marlins. Texas also made a splash by sending Cole Ragans to Kansas City to acquire Aroldis Chapman, though they got that deal done in late June. Others key relievers like Scott Barlow, Pierce Johnson, Joe Kelly and Kendall Graveman also changed locker rooms last year, demonstrating the importance of acquiring high-leverage depth for teams with playoff aspirations.

With the 2024 MLB trade deadline rapidly approaching on July 30, now is the perfect time to review which teams might be sellers, which relievers could be on the move and which teams may be looking for bullpen help. 

First, a look at the MLB standings through July 23:

Looking at the six division races, four are still fairly tight with one or more teams within five games of the division crown. Beyond that, many more teams are in contention for a Wild Card spot, especially in the National League. As such, the market for quality relief help may not be as bountiful as it was last year.

As of this writing, there are a handful of teams that will be obvious sellers in the relief market at this year's trade deadline.

Obvious Sellers

White Sox - Garrett Crochet (free-agent in 2027) has pitched a career-high 107.1 innings thus far, which is more than he's pitched in his previous three seasons combined. In an effort to limit the southpaw's innings, an acquiring contender might shift him to a relief role. Of course, this depends on if and where he is traded. Aside from Crochet, Michael Kopech (FA in 2026) is drawing due to his high strikeout upside and versatility. His 12.4 percent walk rate is an issue, but Kopech has closed games, served as a multi-inning reliever and has started in the past. John Brebbia ($6M team option in 2025) has a 30 percent strikeout rate and team-leading 13 holds. Chicago would certainly move him if there are any suitors.

Marlins - Tanner Scott (FA in 2025) might be the most sought-after reliever among contending teams. Not only does he pitch left-handed, he's riding a 14-game scoreless streak and has allowed only two earned runs since mid-April. The first-time All-Star has an 0.51 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 41:15 K:BB over his last 35 innings, with six wins and 15 saves during that span. A return to Baltimore — where Scott began his career — would look awfully nice. When (not if) Scott is traded, many might speculate that A.J. Puk (FA in 2027) will replace him as the Marlins closer. After all, the southpaw racked up 15 saves for Miami just last year. However, Puk's name is also floating around as a possible trade candidate. Over the last month, Puk has a 0.55 WHIP and 17:3 K:BB over 11 innings without permitting a run. JT Chargois (FA in 2026) perhaps has less of a chance to be moved.

Rockies - Two years after the fact, I'm still wondering why the "paste-eating" Rockies (as Jeff Erickson famously calls them) chose to extend Daniel Bard during the 2022 season rather than trade him for prospects. Colorado's 5.65 bullpen ERA ranks dead last, so there might not be interest in any of their relievers. However, Jalen Beeks (FA in 2025) has flashed in the past and boasts a team-leading nine saves this season. Beeks is a WHIP liability, but a team seeking left-handed relief help as part of their bridge to the ninth inning might call the Rockies for his services.

Athletics - The A's are fielding plenty of calls about the availability of Mason Miller, and rightfully so, but I think there's a very low chance he'll get moved. The 25-year-old flamethrower leads all relievers with 1.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and a 15.5 K/9 while ranking just outside the top 10 with a 0.84 WHIP. I'm sure the Dodgers, Yankees and possibly others have presented massive trade packages for Miller already. Only if Oakland gets blown away by an offer do I think Miller will find a new home. A more realistic trade candidate is Austin Adams (FA in 2026), who has a solid strikeout rate and a team-leading 18 holds.

Angels - Los Angeles might overhaul their entire high-leverage hierarchy over this next week, similar to what the White Sox did last year. Carlos Estevez, Luis Garcia and Matt Moore are all free-agents after this season, while the Angels already have closer-of-the-future types in Ben Joyce and Robert Stephenson (elbow). Estevez is in the midst of a career season with 19 saves and a 0.76 WHIP that ranks fourth among qualified relievers, which puts him on Tanner Scott's level in terms of desirability.

Blue Jays - Toronto is 10 games back of a Wild Card spot and 15 games back in the AL East, so they're a game or two away from becoming sellers at this year's trade deadline. Yimi Garcia (FA in 2025) and Chad Green (FA in 2026) should yield plenty of interest, while Trevor Richards (FA in 2025) should also command some attention. Garcia will almost certainly be moved, but Jordan Romano (FA in 2026) may follow him out the door if a team believes he'll be healthy in time for the playoffs.

Other teams are right on the fringe of becoming sellers depending on how they perform this week.

Fringe Sellers

Tigers - Detroit is six games back of an AL Wild Card spot and even further behind in the AL Central. Should the Tigers choose to sell, Andrew Chafin (FA in 2025) and Shelby Miller ($4.25M team option in 2025) are the only high-leverage relievers whose contracts are expiring soon.

Rays - Tampa Bay is 4.5 games out of the final AL Wild Card, but could buy and sell at the trade deadline this year:

High-leverage stalwarts Pete Fairbanks ($7M team option in 2026) and Jason Adam (FA in 2027) have been drawing interest. If just one is moved, the primary save share in Tampa Bay would certainly fall to the other.

Nationals - Washington already traded Hunter Harvey (FA in 2026) and closer Kyle Finnegan (FA in 2026) could be next, though General Manager Mike Rizzo expressed he isn't in a rush to do so. All might depend on what happens this week when Washington squares off against two other National League Wild Card contenders in the Padres and Cardinals. Alongside excellent ratios, Finnegan ranks third in the league with 28 saves, tying his career high with two months left in the season. Dylan Floro (FA in 2025) and Tanner Rainey (FA in 2026) are also candidates for a trade, but if they remain with Washington, they could ascend into a role that provides save chances.

Reds - Cincinnati has a tough road ahead of the trade deadline with upcoming games against Atlanta, Tampa Bay and the Cubs. Lucas Sims (FA in 2025), Brent Suter ($3.5M team option in 2025) and Buck Farmer (FA in 2025) are candidates to be traded if they sell. 

Giants - How they perform in upcoming games against the Dodgers, Rockies and A's may factor into the Giants' trade deadline plans, but with Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb returning to their starting rotation soon, they may elect to go for it no matter where they find themselves in the Wild Card standings on deadline day. Luke Jackson ($7M team option in 2025), Taylor Rogers (FA in 2026) and Tyler Rogers (FA in 2026) are the potential trade candidates to monitor in San Francisco.

Cubs - With the NL Central likely out of reach, Chicago is 4.5 games back of a Wild Card spot and their upcoming games against three playoff contenders — Brewers, Royals and Reds — will likely determine whether they become buyers or sellers this year. Should they sell, Hector Neris ($9M team option in 2025) could find a new home.

Rangers - Last year's World Series champions are only four games back in the AL West and selling might send a bad message to their fanbase. If Texas does go down that path, which seems unlikely as of this writing, Kirby Yates (FA in 2025), Jose Leclerc (FA in 2025) and David Robertson ($7M mutual option in 2025) would be of interest to contending clubs.

Now that we've identified obvious sellers and potential sellers, let's run down the teams that are most likely to acquire bullpen help over this next week.

Teams in Need of Relief Help

 Yankees - New York ranks 6th in the league with a 3.49 bullpen ERA, but as well as this unit has performed thus far, they don't look that great on paper. Scott Effross, who was recently activated from the IL and optioned to the minors, could help the team later on, but adding a reliever or two — perhaps one with closing experience to take some pressure off Clay Holmes — seems likely.

 Dodgers - The Dodgers suddenly have a need at closer, as Evan Phillips has struggled mightily against left-handed batters (.320 BAA) and has permitted at least one earned run in six of his last eight outings. Daniel Hudson, Alex Vesia and Blake Treinen have proven they're more than capable of closing out games, but I'd be surprised if Los Angeles doesn't add to their pen.

Orioles - Craig Kimbrel has done a fine job as Baltimore's closer, recording 23 saves in 28 chances with a 37.7 percent strikeout rate through late July. Yennier Cano and Jacob Webb have performed well in setup roles, but the Orioles could use another late-inning arm, especially with Danny Coulombe (elbow) currently on the 60-day IL.

Padres - Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon have been outstanding, but San Diego otherwise lacks depth in their bullpen. Their 4.26 bullpen ERA ranks 22nd in the league and Suarez's health history is worrisome.

Royals - Desperate to improve its shaky, 20th-ranked bullpen, Kansas City acquired Hunter Harvey from Washington on July 13. Harvey was excellent to start the 2024 season, recording a 2.15 ERA and 34 strikeouts across 29.1 innings before June, but has struggled since. He's surrendered a run in eight of 17 appearances since June 1, posting an 8.10 ERA and 1.86 WHIP during that stretch. Veterans Chris Stratton and Will Smith have not performed well in 2024, so the Royals might not be done adding to this unit.

Cubs - Hector Neris has been much better of late, recently extending his scoreless streak to nine games, but there was a point just over a month ago where he endured a rough stretch and was given a break from closing. During this time, Chicago didn't really have a clear option to turn to in the ninth inning, with Porter Hodge, Colten Brewer and Keegan Thompson all picking up saves. The Cubs are middle-of-the-pack in bullpen ERA (3.84) but they might need another high-leverage relief arm to draw closer to a NL Wild Card spot.

Red Sox - From one fringe playoff contender to another, health has been the biggest obstacle for Boston's relief corps. At 36, Kenley Jansen can still close out games with the best of them, but injuries to Chris Martin (elbow), Justin Slaten (elbow) has left setup duties to the likes of Cam Booser, Josh Winckowski and Greg Weissert. Liam Hendriks (elbow) may provide reinforcement later this season, but that is far from a guarantee as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery last August.

Pirates - Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom among playoff contenders with a 4.30 relief ERA. Aside from closer David Bednar and setup men Aroldis Chapman and Colin Holderman, the Pirates bullpen lacks experience.

Mariners - With Matt Brash (elbow) previously undergoing Tommy John surgery and Gregory Santos recently returning from a lengthy IL stint, the back-end of the Mariners bullpen has been pretty thin. Andres Munoz appears to be over the back strain that bothered him at the beginning of June, but he's only recorded three saves over the past 30 days. Ryne Stanek led Seattle with four saves during the month of June, but has a 7.94 ERA and two blown saves in July. Santos should eventually find himself in high-leverage situations for Seattle, but he appears to be being eased into such spots. Since the Mariners are currently tied for the AL West lead, they should be in the market for relief help at the trade deadline.

 Mets - New York ranks 19th in bullpen ERA (4.17) and has already traded for Phil Maton. Adding another high-leverage arm to join Edwin Diaz, Dedniel Nunez, Reed Garrett (elbow) and Adam Ottavino in the late innings is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Diamondbacks - D'Backs closer Paul Sewald blew three straight save chances earlier this month, but appears to be back on track, securing four in a row. Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson have performed well in setup roles for Arizona, but another late-inning arm could be the difference in the D'Backs making up ground in the NL Wild Card race.

Guardians - I realize Cleveland's bullpen leads the league with a remarkable 2.56 ERA and the team is more likely to pursue starting pitching or an impact bat, but hear me out for a moment. Aside from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, the Guardians' starting rotation depth is very thin. Perhaps Gavin Williams turns a corner and becomes a trustworthy starter in time for the playoffs? Carlos Carrasco is a heart-warming story, but isn't the same pitcher he once was. Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen are currently in the minors. If Cleveland's starters can't go deep into games, the bullpen will be heavily taxed.

Among the remaining playoff contenders, the Braves (2nd in bullpen ERA), Brewers (3rd), Cardinals (4th), Twins (8th) Astros (9th) and Phillies (16th) aren't as likely as the other teams listed to pursue relief help, but don't count them out of the equation.

This article coincides with my updated closer in waiting rankings, which I'll be adjusting throughout this week leading up to next Tuesday's deadline.

In the meantime, I'll be busy over these next few weeks updating our Closer Grid for all 30 teams. This includes fresh team blurbs, updated bullpen hierarchies and alignment with our depth charts.

Let me know in the comments which relievers you think will be traded this week. In the meantime, enjoy my predictions below and all the deadline deals that do end up taking place.

Prognostication Corner

Predicting trades is fun. Based on years past, I've found I'm not very good at it, but I'll list out the fantasy relevant relievers that have had trade rumors swirling around them this year. I'm no prospect expert, so please don't put too much stock into potential return packages. Try to pay more attention to the potential landing spot and subsequent impact to relief roles.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox - Prediction: The White Sox trade Crochet to the Dodgers for Miguel Vargas, No. 2 prospect Justin Wrobleski, No. 3 prospect Josue De Paula and No. 6 prospect Dalton Rushing. John Brebbia stays with Chicago and moves into the primary save share.

Tanner Scott, Marlins - Prediction: The Marlins trade Scott to the Orioles for 2023 first-rounder Enrique Bradfield or another mid-to-upper level prospect. Baltimore is rich with prospects and is getting a close look at Scott right now during their three-game series in Miami. The southpaw returns to the club that drafted him back in 2014. A.J. Puk, Andrew Nardi and Anthony Bender would stand to see save chances over the final two months for Miami.

Carlos Estevez, Angels - Prediction: The Angels trade Estevez to the Yankees for 2023 first-rounder George Lombard or another mid-to-upper level prospect. As mentioned above, the Yankees would benefit adding another relief pitcher with closing experience to take pressure off Clay Holmes. With Luis Garcia and Matt Moore also candidates to be dealt, Ben Joyce could earn some save opportunities down the stretch.

Kyle Finnegan, Nationals - Prediction: The Nationals trade Finnegan and Dylan Floro to the the Mariners for No. 2 prospect Colt Emerson. Finnegan's extra year of control drives up his acquisition cost and Seattle makes a "go-for-it" move in the competitive AL West race. Finnegan immediately inherits closing duties for the Mariners, relegating Andres Munoz to a high-leverage relief role against the opposition's toughest lineup pockets. Meanwhile, Robert Garcia gets a shot in the ninth inning for Washington.

Mason Miller, Athletics - Prediction: Oakland fields several tempting offers, but Miller remains with the A's.

Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Rays- Prediction: Both relievers remain with Tampa Bay, with the Rays close enough to a Wild Card spot to hold onto their bullpen aces.

Michael Kopech, White Sox - Prediction: The White Sox trade Kopech to the Red Sox for Bryan Mata and Richard Fitts. Boston needs depth in their bullpen right now and trade for a reliever who can eat some innings. The Red Sox are very familiar with Kopech after drafting him in the first round in 2014 and persuade the hard-throwing righty to lean more on his cutter and slider. What better mentor for Kopech than Kenley Jansen and his legendary cutter?

Kirby Yates, Rangers - Prediction: Texas elects to hold onto Yates, David Robertson and Jose Leclerc as they attempt to gain ground in the AL West standings.

Yimi Garcia, Blue Jays - Prediction: The Blue Jays trade Garcia to the Padres for 2023 128th overall pick Homer Bush.

Chad Green, Blue Jays - Prediction: The Blue Jays trade Green to the Yankees for injured starting pitching prospect Clayton Beeter.

Jordan Romano, Blue Jays - Prediction: The Canadian native remains with Toronto, but with Garcia and Green traded, Nate Pearson should hold down the fort in the late innings until Romano returns from elbow surgery.

Hector Neris, Cubs - Prediction: After yesterday's heartbreaking 1-0 loss to Milwaukee at home, the Cubs endure a tough stretch prior to the deadline and elect to sell, trading Neris to the Phillies for a mid-level prospect. The Cubs shift to a closer-by-committee for the rest of the season, with Porter Hodge, Hunter Bigge and Mark Leiter all in the mix for saves.

Jalen Beeks, Rockies - Prediction: The Rockies trade Beeks to the Cubs for injured reliever Yency Almonte. Victor Vodnik continues to receive save opportunities in Colorado alongside Tyler Kinley.