Breakout Rookie-Level Hitters

Ethan Salas, Josue De Paula, Jonathan Mejia, Luis Lara and Nelson Rada have been aggressively assigned to Single-A this season, but their peers began play in the Arizona and Florida complex leagues this week. We also have the next wave of exciting teenage hitters from the Jan. 15, 2023 international signing class beginning their pro careers in the Dominican Summer League.

I can't get in-person or video looks at what's happening on the backfields in the spring or in fall instructs, so I have to rely on the reporting from places like Baseball America and FanGraphs for information on these players beyond what they put up in official DSL games last season. While we know we're working with minimal accurate intel on these players, we also know that every summer, a dozen or more prospects shoot up rankings based on what they do in the ACL, FCL and DSL. 

What I've tried to do here is give you my personal watch lists for each of these leagues, plus some rookie-level pitchers worth paying attention to. I've also noted the strengths and weaknesses for each of these players (+ is good, - is bad, blank is N/A or neutral). While we may have an OK idea of a player's tools and skill at this stage, the scouting reports on 17- and 18-year-old hitters can evolve rapidly and drastically, as every few weeks represents a large percentage of their pro samples. 

Trying to jump on breakout rookie-level hitters is always a popular dynasty-league tactic this time of year, and my hope with this article is to provide you a sense of what each of these prospects brings to the table. There will be guys who break out and are not listed in this article, but that doesn't mean that they aren't legitimate prospects -- I wanted to narrow the focus here somewhat. Let me know whose rookie-league stat line is catching your eye in the comments, on Twitter or on Discord.

Arizona Complex League

The Mariners and Dodgers lead the way with five of the seven most exciting hitting prospects in the ACL. Montes has the highest ceiling in this league, and his movement on the rankings will be determined by how his hit tool looks in his stateside debut. The pitching in the ACL, like with all three of these leagues, is notoriously poor, so inflated strikeout rates, especially if they are accompanied by low walk rates, are a big red flag. There is also more pressure on guys like Austin Charles and Dyan Jorge, who are old for the level, to perform. Age-appropriate for complex ball is 18 years old. Any of these players could hit their way to Single-A before the end of the season.

Florida Complex League

Mercedes was a notch below Arias and Vaquero on international signing day, but he vastly outproduced them in the DSL last summer and enters the FCL season as the prospect with the best combination of performance, pedigree and tools. I'd bet on Arias to break out over Vaquero based on present power, but Vaquero's stock would soar if his bat took a big step forward.

Dominican Summer League

If you want to read up on these players, check out Ben Badler's work at BA. Covering DSL prospects before they play in official games is an impossible job, and Ben is the best in the business. Age appropriate for the DSL is 17 years old. If a player is older than 17 and making their pro debut in the DSL, there could be a good reason, like a visa issue, for them not being stateside, but it's a big red flag if an 18- or 19-year-old hitter is repeating the DSL. For pedigree, I'm basically judging based on signing bonus. Pablo Guerrero is an interesting case, as he got less than six figures but is also the younger brother of Vladimir Guerrero, so if he hits as a 16-year-old in the DSL (turns 17 on July 31), his stock will soar. Guys like Walcott, Bonilla and Mayea have a decent chance of splitting time between the DSL and complex ball as 17-year-olds. Celesten, unfortunately, is out 6-to-8 weeks with a strained hamstring.

Pitchers Worth Tracking

Rostering pitchers in rookie ball is not something I'd advise in most dynasty leagues, but these pitchers have enough upside to justify at least keeping tabs on how they're performing. The top pitchers in this group could quickly move to Single-A if they have early success in rookie ball.