Bernie on the Scene: NL Rookies of Consequence

Projecting playing time for rookies is risky business.

For example, last week I didn't include Wander Franco in my American League Rookies of Consequence for 2021. I really believe the Rays will give Franco another season in development. That could change if the Rays fall out of the pennant race.

Because of injury and poor performance, young pitchers often get calls to the parent club sooner than expected.

This week, I look at National League Rookies of Consequence for 2021. I'll probably omit players you think will get playing time. But I'm not going to guess and mislead my readers.

So, knowing there are probably more than these, I am including rookies I think will either have enough at-bats or innings on the mound to be considered in fantasy.

Cristian Pache, OF, Braves
Bats right
Acquired as international free agent from Dominican Republic in 2015
6-2, 215
Age 22

Cristian Pache may well be the Braves' Opening Day center fielder. The club gave him a $1.4 million bonus.

I think Pache's skills are still as raw as when I first scouted him in the 2018 Fall League. He is an outstanding defensive outfielder.  But I also see him as hitting hard line drives to the gaps. I don't see him as a major home-run threat. He did, however, hit 19 homers in 2019.

Pache is athletic and continues to add depth to his frame. He has some speed, but I don't know much the Braves will want him to run. 

Conclusions: I think Pache has a Gold Glove in his future, but that won't help us in fantasy. I would say be careful with him. While he is highly regarded, most of it is for his athletic ability and as an outfielder. Don't look for power or stolen bases.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates
Bats right
2015 first-round draft pick out of high school 
5-10, 205
Age 24

Hayes showed his abilities in the short 2021 season. His approach to his hitting mechanics was really impressive and much better than I saw in his development.

I think he can become a star. Hitting in the Pirates lineup won't help him much. Hayes isn't known for power, but I think his power could blossom. He is a solid, contact hitter with quick hands and knowledge of how to find the barrel. 

Hayes is an outstanding defensive third baseman, and even if he slumps against good pitching, his team is committed to him as an everyday player.

Conclusions: I like the line-drive bat of Ke'Bryan Hayes. I do think he can hit good pitching and clobber mediocre pitching. His home park in Pittsburgh is hitter friendly, and I think he'll return a good batting average for fantasy owners. But I don't think his team will score runs in bunches.

Devin Williams, RHP, Brewers
2013 second-round draft pick out of high school
6-2, 200
Age 26

Williams is one of the best bullpen arms in the game. He is improving all the time.

Last year, Williams got a chance to strut his stuff. He threw 27 innings and yielded eight hits. That's really incredible. He walked nine. If he improves his walk rate a tad, he'll continue to be on the minds of the Brewers to spell Josh Hader as a closer. Maybe. 

Williams struck out an average of 17.7 hitters per nine. That is not a misprint. Any pitcher with a 0.33 ERA and .630 WHIP gets my attention. And he should get yours.

Williams throws a fastball and curve that are above average. He also has a very good changeup and a slider that is still improving. In short, his repertoire is very solid.

Conclusions:  We know that Josh Hader is the closer in Milwaukee. But I look for Williams to get some shots at the role if the Brewers want to pace Hader. Yes, Williams is that good and can be safely taken as a primary set-up reliever.

Ian Anderson, RHP, Braves
2016 first-round draft pick out of high school
6-3, 170
Age 22

We got a great look of Anderson in last year's postseason. He was a stud. He started two games in the three Braves series. He won two games, threw to a 0.96 ERA in 18.2 innings and saved the Braves' bacon when Mike Soroka went down with injury.

Anderson has a terrific, three-pitch repertoire that includes fastball, curveball and changeup. His repertoire is deep enough to navigate even the best lineups.

Conclusions: Getting stronger and better all the time, Anderson throws hard, throws strikes and throws with confidence. I see him as a major component of the Braves rotation, and I think he'll continue to improve.

Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals
Switch hitter
2016 first-round draft pick out of high school 
6-2, 205
Age 22

To my way of thinking, a lack of outfield depth caused the Cardinals to rush Carlson a bit. He played in the shortened 2020 season and hit .200/.252/.364/.616 in 119 plate appearances.

He hit both right-handers and left-handers equally. But he didn't hit either well.

Carlson should be plugged in as the club's right fielder, and that means an entire season of at-bats. I really don't think he'll be platooned because there isn't much outfield depth.

Carlson is getting stronger, and the power should come. However, I don't see him as a home-run threat. 

Conclusions: Adding a big bat like Nolan Arenado to the lineup should help Carlson. With Paul Goldschmidt and Arenado hitting in front of him, Carlson should see good pitches to hit. He's a hard worker and gives maximum effort, but he's not more than an average hitter yet, at best. Talk to me about him in a year or two.

MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Padres
2017 first-round draft pick out of high school
6-2, 197
Age 21

With all the starting pitching acquired by the Padres this offseason (Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove) McKenzie is a long shot to see action right out of the gate. He's a starter, so I don't think they'll Chris Sale him and start him in the pen. I could be wrong.

With Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack to round out the rotation, I don't see Gore making the team out of spring training. To protect his clock from ticking, the Padres might not bring Gore to the big-league club until late in the season, if at all. I include him here, because he could be the next man up. Even ahead of Adrian Morejon.

Gore is the real deal. He could have a four-pitch repertoire with each pitch above average. But starting with his fastball and curve, he sets up hitters well. Mix in the slider and changeup and he has the pitches to navigate any lineup. When he perfects that changeup, he will have the upper hand in any pitching sequence.

Conclusions: The Padres won't be able to hold Gore back too long. He's good enough to step in if and when a starter gets hurt or is ineffective. That happens on most teams. So, I look for him to get the call by midseason. The Padres will get heat from his agent.

Josiah Gray, RHP, Dodgers
2018 second-round draft pick by Reds out of Le Moyne College
6-1, 190
Age 23

The Reds traded Gray in the deal that brought Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp to Cincinnati.

An outstanding athlete, I think Gray has a chance to take a prominent role in the Dodgers bullpen. At some point. Maybe not too soon. But he's a player.

He pitched and played infield at Le Moyne, and has a very strong arm. This is the type of guy who can sneak up on a roster and win the minds of the club's brass.

Gray throws a mid-90s fastball with very good command and control. He also has a nice slider and is working on a changeup. I think he will miss plenty of bats and shut-down innings.

Conclusions: I include Gray because he's a solid reliever. He knows his role and could work himself into meaningful late-inning appearances. He is a bit of a long shot, but one that I'm keeping my eye on.

Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Marlins
Acquired by Phillies as an international free agent
6-0, 234 
Age 22

Sanchez was the centerpiece of the Phillies' trade with Miami for J.T. Realmuto. Now it is time for the Marlins to see what they have in the highly rated righty.

Sanchez started seven games for the Marlins last season and had a 3.46 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in his 39 innings. He finished 3-2. He walked 2.5 hitters per nine, which isn't bad for a young pitcher just starting his career. He struck out 7.6 per nine, which was less than scouts projected.

Sanchez uses his high-90s fastball as his main pitch. He has avoided trying to throw the ball through the backstop, which is admirable. He knows his limits, but he isn't big and strong. He will likely top out in the high 90s. He also throws a good curve and changeup in his three pitch mix.

My concern is his physicality. Can he go deeply in games without tiring and can he keep the injury bugaboo off his front door? The frame is a concern due to how hard he throws.

Conclusions: Sanchez knows how to pitch. He paces himself well and will need a catcher who understands his repertoire and how much to push him. But he's a quality starter on an improving offensive team. He's worth a long look.

Joey Bart, C, Giants
Bats right
2018 first-round draft pick out of Georgia Tech
6-2, 238
Age 24

Bart's status depends upon how much the Giants get out of Buster Posey, who they are paying $22.177M to play. Keep that in mind. Teams do not pay that much to watch a player sit on the bench.

The team is also paying Brandon Belt $17.2M to play first base. So, before you think Posey will mosey over to first base full time, think again. Unless they move Belt back to the outfield, which is always possible. I don't see that happening. Posey will get time at first, but they are not paying Belt to pinch hit.

The loser in all of this is Joey Bart. 

The team signed Curt Casali as the backup to Posey, but I still see Bart getting playing time this season. He's a first-round draft pick who cost the Giants $7M. Again, follow the money. And follow the age. Bart is 24. Play him soon or regret it.

Bart has shortened his swing and has been using the entire field in his development. That's a good thing. He's a rare catcher who can play solid defense and hit. He did make 111 plate appearances in 2020, hitting no home runs and driving in seven. Maybe the Giants didn't think he was ready and signed Casali.

Conclusions: I don't get the Giants. But, I still think Bart gets his at-bats. He's not a sure thing yet. We have to watch spring training carefully to see how he is used. But he's an average hitter and better than many who will be selected in fantasy. And Casali is making only $1.5M. That's another reason I like Bart. I think Casali is there to push Bart.

William Contreras, C, Braves
Bats right
Acquired as international free agent from Venezuela
6-0, 180
Age 22

Contreras might be in a battle with Alex Jackson for the backup catcher role behind starter Travis d'Arnaud. But it is certain that neither will beat out d'Arnaud.

Contreras played only four games for the Braves last year. So he may still find himself in development.

Contreras is the brother of Wilson Contreras, the catcher with the Cubs. Don't confuse them on your draft board.

William Contreras is a raw prospect. He has power potential. He has the ability to take the ball to all fields with some pop. However, he is still refining his swing, and that might mean a full year in development.

Conclusions: I'm not sure he is ready for the big club, but either he or Alex Jackson (see below) will get a backup job. They are both eligible rookies.

Alex Jackson, C, Braves
Bats right
2014 first-round draft pick by Mariners out of high school
6-2, 215
Age 25

Jackson is bigger and stronger than the younger William Contreras. 

The Braves got him in a 2016 trade with Seattle. The Mariners gave up on their 2014 first-round pick, and the Braves swooped in. But Jackson really hasn't shown any major skills to date.

He has a slowish bat and has to refine his stroke. His hands drag and he hits to his pull side far too often. So there is work to do.

Conclusions: I'm not bullish on Jackson. I think he'll improve, but he's already 25. Contreras is probably the better long term bet.

Heading Home

Thanks to those who responded to our call for fantasy players in the two Bernie on the Scene fantasy leagues. Both leagues appear to be full, but we never know if someone will drop out. We are now taking waiting lists. If you wish to be wait listed, please email me at [email protected].

• I am concerned about J.T. Realmuto's fractured thumb. Yes, he might be ready to start the season. But any part of the hand that is injured must heal properly to allow the hitter to use his normal swing path. I'm monitoring his situation, but I'm not bullish.

• There were some important transactions last week. For example:

Seattle signed Ken Giles as their probable closer — OK

Dodgers re-signed Justin Turner — Outstanding

Seattle signed LHP James Paxton — Good

Padres signed RHP Mark Melancon to close — OK

Athletics signed RHP Sergio Romo probably to set up — OK

Twins signed RHP Matt Shoemaker — Between Meh and OK

Padres signed RHP Keone Kela — So So

Pirates signed LHP Tyler Anderson — So So

Giants signed LHP Jake McGee — So So

Marlins signed OF Adam Duvall — Solid

Phillies signed INF Brad Miller — Meh

Rays signed LHP Rich Hill — OK if he ever gets healthy

Yankees signed OF Brett Gardner — Solid

Athletics signed RHP Trevor Rosenthal — Solid

• Stay safe out there. Stay healthy. And don't forget to thank those people who have helped us through this horrible pandemic.

• I welcome you to follow me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff and read my baseball articles  at  Forbes.com.