Bernie on the Scene: More 2020 Rookie Evaluations

This is my last in a series of articles on 2020 rookie performances. 

I will include both pitchers and hitters in this article. I will try to catch up on other rookie performances in coming weeks and months.

David Peterson, LHP, Mets

Lefty David Peterson had an outstanding short season for the Mets. He finished 6-2.

Big and strong at 6-foot-6, 240, Peterson does a remarkable job of repeating his delivery.

That's a huge challenge for a guy as big as Peterson. They have to manage proper arm slot and landing with long arms and legs. He does it well.

For a man of his size, Peterson does not throw a lights-out, high-velocity fastball. Rather, he sits at 92 mph with both his four-seam and two-seamers. He also throws a very solid slider, a changeup and a curve. The fastball/slider combination is his bread and butter. It is his curveball that he only flirts with and doesn't rely upon. He has to throw more strikes.

Peterson is steady, but there really isn't a pitch he can turn to that ends an at-bat. He can mix and match with a fastball or slider, but hitters will make contact off Peterson.

Next Year: Peterson walks an average of 4.3 hitters per nine and strikes out only 7.2. Those ratios aren't great. I like him, but he's a mid-rotation starter that will have to improve his command and control. I would grab him, but I wouldn't reach.

Jose Urquidy, RHP, Astros

Jose Urquidy came off the injured list to put in solid performances for the Astros. He was especially strong in the playoffs. Urquidy has earned a spot in the Astros' rotation of the future.

At 6-0, 217, Urquidy uses a solid fastball/slider combination as the basis of his repertoire. He also throws major league quality curves and changeups to complete a very credible repertoire.

Urquidy is the type of pitcher who can escape a lengthy rally with any one of his pitches. He can get a strikeout or ground ball with good pitch selection. His delivery is solid, with consistency in his release point and finish.

This year, Urquidy only struck out 5.2 hitters per nine innings, but I think there is more swing-and-miss in his tank.

Next Year: I think Urquidy has a big future, as long as he can stay healthy. He'll pitch for a team we may not recognize by Opening Day, but I trust his growth path. I wouldn't hesitate to grab him in a draft.

Logan Webb, RHP, Giants

Logan Webb is mostly a fastball pitcher. He really relies on his fastball to navigate a lineup. He establishes the fastball at least 50 percent of the time and then brings his changeup to alter the balance of the hitter.

Webb had a serious problem with command and control this season. He averaged four walks per nine innings. Couple that with a hittable fastball, and that's a bad recipe.

Webb has a history of injury, and he may not be able to be trusted to put in the innings required of a starter. 

HIs performance this short season was no better than his debut in 2019, when he had eight starts that also ended up with a 5.22 ERA and 4.12 WHIP. This was  a new season with little improvement.

Next Year: I'm taking a pass on Webb. I don't like much about the Giants to begin with, and I don't think he helps their challenged pitching future.

Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers

Tigers fans and fantasy managers have to be rocked by the performance Mize turned in.

In fantasy, we go by numbers. His numbers were off the charts awful — there is no other way to put it.

Whenever I scouted Mize, he would be at 93-96 miles per hour with his fastball. This season he was at a flat 93. He was hit hard, yielding seven home runs. He also hit five batters. I clearly didn't like what I saw. He walked 4.1 batters per nine innings. He struck out 8.3.

His split and slider are quality pitches. He uses his fastball, cutter and split most prominently in his repertoire, but he also has a cutter. All are major league quality pitches, but when I watched him pitch, he didn't look comfortable on the mound. Growing pains, I hope.

Next Year: Mize finished with a record of 0-3. The Tigers are counting on him to be a major part of their rotation for years to come. I'm going to wait a year. In re-draft leagues I'm sitting it out. I would have more confidence in a keeper league. But my jury is still out. I was not impressed with what I saw. He'll be facing the White Sox and Twins in his division. That, too, gives me pause.

Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers

Like his teammate Casey Mize, Skubal had a rough rookie season. Like Mize, he yielded too many home runs, nine to be exact. To be fair, his ceiling is not as high as that of Mize.

Skubal was a ninth-round pick, and not as much was expected from him as was expected of first-rounder Mize.

Skubal did not force as much hard contact as Mize, but he pitched from behind far too often.

For Skubal, his mid-90s fastball is his best and most advanced pitch. He really relies on it, throwing it over 60 percent of the time, allowing hitters to sit and wait out his secondary pitches.

Skubal also throws a changeup off the fastball, a slider and an occasional curve ball. None of his secondary pitches are advanced enough yet to get the swings and misses he may need to compliment the fastball.

As a lefty, Skubal may play an important role as a future Tigers starter. He will compliment guys like Mize, Matthew Boyd and Michael Fulmer in a bad rotation.

Next Year: I think Skubal wins a starting job out of spring training. But I'm not ready to watch him go up against the Twins and White Sox sluggers. I have little to no confidence he can master tough right-handed hitters. For that reason, I'll sit it out for now.

Mauricio Dubon, OF, Giants

Right-handed hitting Mauricio Dubon came to the Giants from the Brewers in 2019 for Ray Black and Drew Pomeranz.

Even though he saw big-league playing time in 2019, Dubon entered the season with rookie eligibility.

At 6-0, 173, Dubon has good speed in the center of the outfield. Versatile and quick on his feet, I saw him play in the infield when he played for Surprise in the 2016 Fall League.

Dubon is the type of player who has become prominent on major league rosters. He's quick, he's solidly built, he can hit a little and he plays good defense. It seems every team has a Mauricio Dubon. That's why I don't think he's anything special for fantasy.

Dubon has a short stroke. He doesn't swing for the fences, as he realizes he's a singles hitter with enough gap power to stroke an occasional double or triple. Don't, however, look for home runs. He may hit 10 in a season, but that won't be enough for you.

I like him better in fantasy as a bench infielder as opposed to an outfielder.

Next Year: I don't know how much of a future Dubon has with the Giants. They need bats, but he won't offer much in that department. He's a good defensive replacement. I'm not even thinking of him for my fantasy teams, other than perhaps in a National League only league.

Yoshi Tsutsugo, OF, Rays

Unless they really are planning to part ways with Kevin Kiermaier, which is highly possible, there is no need for Tsutsugo on the Rays. They have Manuel Margot to take over in center if they trade Kiermaeir.

Tsutsugo has not been a major part of the Rays postseason offense. He is used late in games and for minimal plate appearances, at best.

During the regular season, Tsutsugo did get to the plate in 51 of the 60 games. The surprise came with the eight home runs. He does have some pop in his bat, and I saw that in spring training.

The Rays have Brett Phillips, Hunter Renfroe, Mike Brosseau and Tsutugo capable of coming off the bench and playing outfield. None likely will beat out Margot, Kiermaier or Austin Meadows as starters. That alone is reason for hesitation with Tsutugo.

Tsutugo will be in the second year of a two-year contract. His salary will be $7M. By contrast, Kiermaier will make $$11.666M next year. Then he has another expensive year before a team option pops up in 2023. I think he's gone. That, and only that, would help Tsutugo.

Next Year: The home runs are nice, but he's strictly a bench player as a platoon left-handed hitter against righties. I'm probably going to pass, unless things change regarding the club's outfield depth. But his contract dictates a space on somebody's roster or a buyout.

Willi Castro, INF, Tigers

Alert: I am a huge, huge Willi Castro fan. I was upset when the Indians traded Castro to the Tigers  in 2018 for Leonys Martin. And, oh right, they also got Kyle Dowdy in the deal.

Watching him hit, it just comes easy to him. The bonus is that Castro is a switch-hitter capable of hitting well from both sides of the plate. I honestly believe Castro would have been a natural successor to Francisco Lindor. He's that good. And he rarely strikes out.

Castro is a very good defensive shortstop. He can also play second base smoothly and with very good range and arm strength. 

Castro will be in the Tigers' everyday lineup somewhere in 2021. Either he takes the shortstop position full time or we'll find him at second base. Either place works for me.

Next Year:  Castro is high on my list of sleeper players I hope fall in drafts. Only a few of us know about him now. You, me and those who watch baseball everyday. 

Andres Gimenez, INF, Mets

The Mets have to make a decision about Gimenez. Do they keep him and Amed Rosario around, or do they swim in the deep water and go after an expensive free-agent shortstop? With new owner Steve Cohen at the helm, I have a hunch they may go swimming.

But if they keep Gimenez along with Rosario, they can have a nice middle-infield combination of quality players. Maybe they then trade a Jeff McNeil, who has value.

Gimenez was sent to the 2019 Arizona Fall League to improve his hitting mechanics. He had a tendency to try to hit every pitch out of the park to his pull side, and the AFL experience was designed to change that approach. He hit .371 that fall, and showed he's a quality hitter as well as an efficient defensive infielder.

I'm convinced Gimenez can hit. A left-handed hitter, he is much more disciplined at the plate now, but he can still barrel baseballs. In my view, he should not be platooned. He has enough in his bat to play against all pitching.

Next Year: For me it really is too soon to tell. The Mets are the No. 1 team to watch in the offseason due to Cohen's money and his desire to spend it and turn the Mets around. But fantasy managers can do worse than Gimenez. I'll be watching.

HEADING HOME

There is no doubt in my mind Fox Sports was thrilled the Dodgers made the World Series. Especially with smaller market Tampa Bay on the other side. But TV ratings for this World Series are the lowest in years for the first games. Even when people are home, bored and have nothing to do. That my friends, is not a good sign.

• I don't know about you, but I've heard enough of Joe Buck. Football, baseball every day of the week? There are so many good announcers out there, one would think Fox would want to give one of them a shot. Buck is good. But I'm ready for a change.

• I may be in the minority, but there is no way — no way — I would start Tony Gonsolin in Game 2 just to let him pitch one inning. I don't like the way the Dodgers lean on metrics consistently and tie the hands of their manager. 

• For me, the contact play is the worst maneuver in baseball. That's when there is a runner on third with less than two outs. The runner goes when he hears the ball hit the bat-on contact.

I have seen it fail over and over and over and over and over and over and over … well, you get my point. Runner thrown out at home. Takes a good throw, but major league infielders know how to throw to the plate. The Rays do most things well. But Kevin Cash loves the contact play. It cost him runs in the World Series. Runs are precious for the Rays. They can't see their guys thrown out at the plate on a ground ball to the infield.

• On Twitter, some folks have asked me why I didn't include the Padres as a landing spot for Trevor Bauer in my forbes.com article. The answer is two-fold. One, I think they have enough young pitching, and two, I don't think they have any money. It would be good to pair him back with Mike Clevinger, but I think they are in financial trouble.

• Thanks for following me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff. And thanks for reading my baseball articles at forbes.com. Here is the Bauer article I wrote about above.