Farm Futures: Top 15 Pitchers Under 26

Last week I ranked the top 15 hitters under 23, and now it's time to release the pitching version of blended rankings of the top young MLB players and top prospects. I bumped up the age requirement to 25 and under for the pitching version because I think this exercise is most useful when it is roughly 60-70 percent big leaguers with the elite prospects sprinkled in, and pitchers take longer to develop into high-end big leaguers than hitters do.

Here are my top 15 pitchers under the age of 26 for standard 5x5 roto dynasty leagues (age in brackets):

EDITOR'S NOTE: The original version of this article incorrectly omitted Shohei Ohtani, so it has been expanded to a top 16.

1. Walker Buehler (25.1)

2020 projection: 3.12 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 190 IP, 233 K

There are statistical arguments for a couple of the guys ranked below Buehler, but if we're projecting forward, I think he can be even better than he's been this year when it comes to ratios, and we know the strikeouts will be there. This feels like a baseline season for him, whereas some guys below seem more likely to be peaking in 2019. Team context also plays a role with Buehler being in the top spot.

2. Shohei Ohtani (25.1)

2020 projection: 3.54 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 130 IP, 166 K

Thanks to subscriber ddsjohnny for quickly pointing out that I forgot about Ohtani in the original version of this article. Ohtani vs. Buehler would be a really tough call if Ohtani were fully healthy and pitching, but at the very least we have to ding him for how many innings he will provide in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. He has ace stuff, he just needs to prove that he can handle an ace's workload.

3. Lucas Giolito (25.1)

2020 projection: 3.55 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 186 IP, 226 K

I really struggled with where to put Giolito, because unlike the rest of the guys ranked highly on this list, I had very low expectations for him coming into the year. Sometimes pitching development is the opposite of linear, especially with bigger pitchers who have explosive arsenals. Such has been the case with Giolito. I think we just need to throw out his first few big-league seasons when looking ahead — he's just a different pitcher now (way more changeups, significantly fewer curveballs, better command, etc...)

4. Shane Bieber (24.2)

2020 projection: 3.32 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 IP, 228 K

Bieber could easily be ranked higher on this list. It's just really hard to find separating factors among the top three guys. I love pitchers who lean heavily on both the slider and curveball, because when they are both working you can be borderline unhittable, and that's Bieber's game.

5. Jack Flaherty (23.9)

2020 projection: 3.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 188 IP, 223 K

When Flaherty is at his best, he belongs in the conversation with the top three guys on this list, but he has not displayed that level of consistency thus far. That consistency on a start-to-start basis is what separates an SP1 from an SP2, which Flaherty certainly is. 

6. Forrest Whitley (21.9)

ETA: mid-June 2020

The biggest difference between these pitcher rankings and last week's hitter rankings is the age range I had to work with. Unlike position players, pitchers simply don't become great fantasy pitchers when they are 20 or 21. Most good starting pitchers are drafted into pro ball when they are 18 or 21, while 10 of the 15 hitters on last week's list signed when they were 16. It's just a different developmental cycle. So should we be concerned about Whitley not looking like a big-league ace yet? I don't think we should be. He is two years younger than Flaherty and over three years younger than Buehler and Giolito. Don't freak out. He's a 21-year-old pitching prospect. If you loved him before the season, you should still love his long-term prospects. If you weren't that into him, then you weren't going to have any shares of him anyway. I still think Whitley has the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect I've ranked since Noah Syndergaard, and one year where nothing goes right isn't going to be enough for me to waver in that assessment.

7. Mike Soroka (22.1)

2020 projection: 3.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 192 IP, 158 K

I've gone back and forth between Soroka and Chris Paddack all season — Paddack is better at striking guys out and Soroka is better at everything else. Striking hitters out is a pretty big part of being a pitcher, but it would be pretty surprising if Soroka's strikeout rate just stayed the same over the rest of his career. He's a sinker/slider guy, so he's obviously not looking to avoid contact as often as Paddack is, but he's got a good changeup and excellent command for his age, so I think he'll be at least a 190-200 strikeout guy in his peak years. Even if he doesn't substantially increase his strikeout rate, you're basically getting the same production as you get with Kyle Hendricks, who is awesome.

8. Chris Paddack (23.6)

2020 projection: 3.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 178 IP, 191 K

If projection systems were the basis of prospect rankings, then Paddack would have been the top ranked pitching prospect before the season. However, projection systems don't know what is in a pitcher's arsenal, and Paddack's lack of a quality third pitch is what held him back as a prospect and it has been the only thing holding him back in the big leagues. However, he's still just 23, and a breaking ball is much easier to learn than a changeup, so he should be OK. At the very least, he's a WHIP stud who pitches in the National League and will strike out over one batter per inning.

9. German Marquez (24.5)

2020 projection: 4.12 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 172 IP, 181 K

I believe Marquez is the third-best pure pitcher on this list, behind Buehler and Ohtani, but he pitches half his games in Coors Field and now he is shut down with arm inflammation, so he is a really tough guy to rank. He will presumably be with the Rockies through the 2024 season, so we have to treat the Coors Field aspect as an inevitability going forward. The deeper the league, the more valuable he is, because his volatile ERA will do less damage in a 20-teamer than in a 12-teamer.

10. Julio Urias (23.0)

2020 projection: 3.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 146 IP, 151 K

Back in 2015 and 2016, Giolito and Urias were the clear top two pitching prospects in the game. This year was Giolito's breakout season, and I think Urias will have his own coming-out party next year. The Dodgers have been very disciplined with bringing Urias back slowly from his big shoulder scare a couple years ago, and he still won't be ready to log a full season's worth of big-league starts next year. However, he should be able to make 23-26 starts in 2020 if he stays healthy, and I think the per-start production will be very impressive.

11. Jesus Luzardo (21.9)

ETA: September 2019

Luzardo is very similar to Urias in terms of being short, sturdy southpaws with big-time stuff and some durability concerns. However, Urias gets a big edge in team/league context, and Urias is in a better position to eclipse 125 innings next year, given that Luzardo has spent most of 2019 battling shoulder issues. I think he'll impress over a handful of big-league starts in the final month of the season, but I don't think we can expect more than 15-20 starts in 2020.

12. Jose Berrios (25.3)

2020 projection: 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 IP, 199 K

Berrios has established a pretty high floor as a low-end SP2 or high-end SP3, but there may not be another level for him to reach. He pitches for a good team and when Byron Buxton is on the field, he has an above-average defense behind him. He is probably the least exciting name on this list, but he's productive and there aren't any durability concerns.

13. MacKenzie Gore (20.5)

ETA: May 2020

Gore is the youngest player on this list and also has the fewest starts in the upper levels of the minors. The further a pitcher is from the majors, the more downside there is if that pitcher suffers an injury. That said, despite only having five starts under his belt at Double-A, Gore will probably spend more time in the majors than in the minors if his 2020 season goes according to plan. Of course, things often don't go according to plan in the world of pitching prospects — look at Whitley's 2019 season. Gore will probably be able to throw around 150 total innings next season.

14. Matt Manning (21.6)

ETA: mid-June 2020

I'm probably the only person who ranks prospects who was actually expecting more from Manning this season. Even so, he was probably ready for Triple-A a few months ago and should have been pitching in the big leagues for the last month. He has improved his command/control from where it was a year ago, has generated groundballs at a solid clip (46.8 GB%) and has held Double-A hitters to a .191 average. Like Gore, Manning should spend more time in the majors than the minors next season. He should approach 180 innings if he stays healthy. 

15. Zac Gallen (24.1)

2020 projection: 3.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 191 IP, 211 K

Gallen has a legitimate four-pitch mix that he's still learning how to maximize against big-league hitters. His changeup is his best pitch, but he gets whiffs in and out of the zone on all four offerings, even on his 94 mph fastball. He's a fierce competitor who would rather walk someone than serve up a grooved fastball in a hitter's count, which is the right plan of attack in today's hitting environment, but that approach means he'll never be a big asset in the WHIP department. Having Carson Kelly, Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte playing defense behind him is an added bonus.

16. Casey Mize (22.3)

ETA: mid-June 2020

There are some danger signs with Mize:

I considered some other prospects in this spot (Brendan McKay, Michael Kopech, A.J. Puk, Luis Patino, Dustin May, Ian Anderson) — I even considered Max Fried, who I like more than most, and who has at least proven to be a capable big-league starter. I think Mize needed to make the cut based on upside — he may never be a top-10 guy for strikeouts, but his ratios could be elite. That said, I'd be looking to trade Mize for Whitley, Manning or Gallen (the most likely guys on this list to be underrated) this offseason.