This article is part of our The Armband series.
I take the blame for last week's rankings. My differential of David Villa flopped in a big way, as the Spaniard didn't even start. NYC FC won, as expected, and Villa's backup scored a brace, but that doesn't matter, especially since I faded Josef Martinez. Week 15 could be more problematic because almost every team is taking part in a midweek U.S. Open Cup match. That only makes things more difficult to project in the case of injuries or coaches wanting to rest players. With it being so early in the tournament, I'll ignore these matches and assume everyone relevant will start in league play, Villa included.
Even with the midweek matches, MLS is back to a normal week with one match Friday and the rest Saturday. Philadelphia and Toronto kick things off, and their game is set to hit at least four goals, according to my personal odds. There have been 14 goals in the Union's last three home matches and they'll be without Alejandro Bedoya and Haris Medunjanin due to red cards. It's the same for Toronto on the road, where there have been 17 goals in their last three. Borek Dockal has turned into Philly's best fantasy player with 43 points in his last four starts, and while he'd be a great differential, I'm not sure I'd give him the nod ahead of Sebastian Giovinco or Victor Vazquez. Giovinco hasn't had a huge performance yet, but he's still producing at a consistent rate of 9.4 fantasy points per game in his last five starts.
There are a couple teams that stand out in terms of matchups, specifically Dallas (v. MTL), Houston (v. COL) and Los Angeles (v. RSL). In terms of the road teams, the Impact have allowed 19 road goals, the Rapids have scored two goals in five road matches and Real Salt Lake have four points from seven road games, despite sitting third in the Western Conference.
I maybe jumped the gun with the Dynamo last week as they had two road matches, but a return home should help Alberth Elis and company. Houston have 11 goals in their last three at home, and Elis and Romell Quioto have been involved in most of them. The Dynamo didn't show up in Montreal last weekend, but I'm willing to bet that changes here with two goals scored at a minimum.
Dallas haven't been a great team to back in terms of the armband, but it appears Mauro Diaz is back to full health after starting both matches in the double last week. He's also had at least five fantasy points in every start, and that should be more than possible against Montreal, especially given the form Dallas are in with 13 points from their last five matches. Maximiliano Urruti hasn't reached double-digit fantasy points yet, but he's one of the more likely players to score this weekend.
The Galaxy have been one of the harder teams to project since they have a negative goal differential at home, so I'm still weary of captaining Zlatan Ibrahimovic or Romain Alessandrini. The upside is there but the consistency is not, and it doesn't help that RSL have won four of their last five.
Elsewhere, the rematch between NYC FC and Atlanta takes place in New York and anything can happen in that one. NYC FC have a ridiculous 18 goals scored and two allowed in home matches, but Atlanta usually aren't a team to bet against. Atlanta's back line is still a little beat up, so Villa should have his chances, while Miguel Almiron is never a bad play for the armband. That said, I can't go with Atlanta players due to NYC FC's numbers at home.
I'm more inclined to back Federico Higuain, who has at least nine fantasy points in his last three starts in which he didn't get a red card. The Red Bulls are dominant at home but sit at fifth in the table because of their road record (three wins, three losses). There have been 29 goals in eight home matches for the Crew, and that benefits Higuain and Gyasi Zardes. That's also a reason to go with Kaku or Bradley Wright-Phillips, but I'd rather back someone at home.
Cristian Techera (v. ORL) would be an interesting differential, as he has four goals in his last two matches. It only helps that Orlando City are in the midst of a four-match losing streak along with three matches in eight days, all on the road. Aleksandar Katai is edging closer to captain material with a goal or assist in his last four starts, and a home match against the Revs can continue that. The Sounders (v. DC) have a great matchup, but there's no reason to back any of their players still with only seven goals scored. That includes Nicolas Lodeiro, who likely still isn't completely healthy after missing Uruguay's World Cup roster.
Diego Valeri is usually a player to back at home, but I'm staying away from the Timbers against a stout Sporting KC back line. And with Carlos Vela gone, I'm avoiding the San Jose-LAFC match altogether, at least in terms of the armband.
