This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Chelsea and Brighton & Hove Albion will meet Saturday at Stamford Bridge for their 16th all-time meeting. The two clubs have been intricately interconnected since the the change in Chelsea's ownership in 2022.
The West Londoners have three members of their regular starting XI who were signed from the Seagulls: midfielder Moises Caicedo, left-back Marc Cucurella and goalkeeper Robert Sanchez. Chelsea even shelled out a mind-numbing fee of just under 26 million Euros, according to The Sporting News, for the short-lived tenure of former manager Graham Potter.
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Brighton have leveraged the revenue from selling their top players to retool their squad with young talent under their new 31-year-old manager, Fabian Hurzeler. Over the summer transfer window, the Seagulls splurged an estimated 231.2 million Euros on eight players, according to transfermarkt.us, none of whom are older than 24 years old.
Chelsea finished sixth in the 2023/2024 Premier League table, 15 points ahead of 11th place Brighton & Hove Albion.
HEAD TO HEAD
Chelsea and Brighton have met on 15 occasions. Chelsea lead the all-time matchup with nine wins, four draws and two losses.
During the 2023/2024 campaign, Chelsea won each of the three meetings between the clubs (two league matches, one EFL Cup match) by an aggregate score of 5-4.
ODDS
Moneyline
DraftKings: CHE -140 Draw +320, BHA +340 (PROMO CODE)
FanDuel: CHE -145 Draw +320, BHA +340 (PROMO CODE)
Bet365: CHE -143 Draw +320, BHA +333 (BONUS CODE)
BetMGM: CHE -140 Draw +310, BHA +340 (BONUS CODE)
FORMATIONS
Chelsea have experienced a tactical metamorphosis under new manager Enzo Maresca, lining up in a base 4-2-3-1. The Italian has made a clear imprint upon how Chelsea play their football, including the insistence of adding a full-back into the midfield while in possession, creating a 3-3-5 attacking shape.
Early this season, Marc Cucurella has be instrumental in bringing Maresca's ideas to life. The former Brighton left-back has turned himself into a midfield master when Chelsea are going forward and has showcased the ability to retreat into the left-back position to solidify their defensive shape once possession has been poached. It's a style similar to that of Manchester City and Pep Guardiola where Maresca coached for the development team.
Brighton have most commonly employed a 4-4-2 (4-2-3-1-ish) under manager Hurzeler with Danny Welbeck and newcomer Georginio Rutter spearheading the attack (while Joao Pedro is injured). However, when facing an opponent with upper-echelon talent, Brighton have shown flexibility and played a 4-3-3, as they did earlier this season versus Arsenal.
With the Seagulls likely to deploy a two-man strike force with Kaoru Mitoma and either Simon Adingra or Yankuba Minteh on the wings, the pressure will fall upon Chelsea central defenders Levi Colwill and Wesley Fofana to stymie the Brighton attack that has scored nine goals over their first five matches.
Conversely, Chelsea's possession-dominant style of play will put pressure on what has been an ever-rotating Brighton midfield.
RECENT FORM
Chelsea (WWDWL) ran roughshod over League Two Barrow AFC in a 5-0 midweek victory in the EFL Cup that included a hat trick from Christopher Nkunku. In their most recent Premier League fixture, Nicolas Jackson netted twice in a 3-0 victory over West Ham United.
Brighton (DDLWW) were idle in the midweek, having already advanced to the EFL Cup Fourth Round with a 3-2 victory over Wolverhampton that included a goal from new signing Ferdi Kadioglu. The Seagulls earned a share of the points in a spirited 2-2 draw with Nottingham Forest in their most recent Premier League match that saw Hurzeler dismissed after being shown a red card due to his touchline antics late in the second half.
LINEUP NOTES
Chelsea
Malo Gusto returned from a hamstring injury that cost him a two-match absence, resuming his post at on the right side of the Chelsea defense in their midweek tilt versus Barrow. With Axel Disasi and Wesley Fofana having deputized for Gusto in his absence and club captain Reece James still weeks away with yet another injury, Maresca will be relieved to have a more natural fit at right back in his starting XI. The manager was able to rest the main contingent of his starting XI versus Barrow: Cole Palmer, Nicolas Jackson, Noni Madueke, Jadon Sancho, Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez, Levi Colwill, Wesley Fofana, Marc Cucurella, and Robert Sanchez each did not appear in the midweek EFL Cup tilt, leaving them fresh for Saturday's tussle with the Seagulls.
Brighton & Hove Albion
After an unfortunate early season injury saw new signing Matthew O'Reilly forced off the pitch just 10 minutes into his debut, Brighton have cobbled together their midfield. Carlos Baleba has started in three successive matches, while Jack Hinshelwood moved to the midfield in the past league match. Fortunately, midfielder Mats Wieffer is back from his injury and an option to start, while Yasin Ayari is also back from his absence last weekend.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Moises Caicedo: The former Brighton youngster has begun the season in scorching form, now fully settled in from his big money move from the South Coast in August 2023. The talented holding midfielder supplied an assist in Chelsea's 3-0 drubbing of West Ham last Saturday, but his value can be better measured when assessing his performances through the lens of a midfield game-wrecker.
Caicedo has 21 tackles (11 won), nine interceptions, six clearances and two blocks over five Premier League starts to begin the 2024/2025 campaign. Against Brighton, Caicedo may find himself playing combinations out of the back with Chelsea's center-back partnership throughout the match, attempting to hold the ball and pick his spot to spring the attack.
Danny Welbeck: Welbeck has been the focal point of the Brighton attack in the early season. The veteran striker is looking for a rebound season after scoring just five goals over 29 appearances (21 starts) during the 2023/2024 campaign, the least goals he's scored in a Premier League campaign since his 2019/2020 season with Watford in which he scored just two goals over 18 Premier League appearances (eight starts). Christening the new season, Welbeck has experienced a renaissance of form, scoring three goals and assisting once over five Premier League appearances (five starts), beginning life positively under new management at Brighton.
BETTING PICKS & PREDICTION
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Man of the Match: Cole Palmer
With Chelsea expected to dominate possession playing at home, I anticipate Palmer dropping off into deeper positions in an attempt to receive the ball between the lines and create space for his fellow Chelsea attackers. As Chelsea clutch the ball waiting for an opening, Palmer will float in from a wide position to a more central role, and vice versa, in an attempt to use his license to free roam the pitch as a way to unbalance the Brighton backline and produce a singular moment of magic. Make no mistake, Palmer is the straw that stirs the drink for the Chelsea attack.
Brighton will likely look to use their defending as a platform to set traps and hit Chelsea quickly in transition. With Chelsea committing a defender to the midfield while in possession, the Seagulls will hope to exploit their formation by springing the likes of Mitoma and Co. on the the counter attack in an attempt to execute a classic smash-and-grab at Stamford Bridge.
Result: Chelsea 2 - Brighton 1
UPCOMING FIXTURES
Chelsea: Oct. 6 vs. Nottingham Forest
Brighton: Oct. 6 vs. Tottenham
