This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Aston Villa and Brighton & Hove Albion meet Monday at Villa Park for the 34th all-time matchup between the clubs from the Midlands and the South Coast, respectively.
Aston Villa will be aiming to return to the win column after a 3-0 drubbing by Newcastle in their Boxing Day fixture. Brighton will be readjusting their game plan after a 0-0 draw Friday versus Brentford capped a three-match stretch in which the Seagulls have managed just two goals.
Aston Villa sit tied for seventh in the Premier League table on 28 points, while Brighton are 10th on 26 points. With each club hoping to push into the automatic qualification for next season's European tournaments, they'll continue to chase fifth-place Newcastle who have accrued 29 points.
Premier League Predicted & Confirmed Lineups
Premier League Schedule and Fixture Difficulty Ranker
HEAD TO HEAD
Aston Villa and Brighton have met on 33 occasions, dating back to 1910 when Brighton defeated the Villans 1-0 in a FA Charity Shield match. The clubs have each maintained their Premier League status since the 2019/2020 season. Since that time, the Villans have won seven matches, lost twice and drawn twice in 11 fixtures across all competitions.
Villa lead the all-time series over the Seagulls, winning 18 times and drawing on nine occasions and suffering just six losses.
ODDS
Moneyline
DraftKings: AVL -105 Draw +270, BHA +260 (PROMO CODE)
FanDuel: AVL -105 Draw +290, BHA +260 (PROMO CODE)
BetMGM: AVL -105 Draw +280, BHA +250 (BONUS CODE)
Bet365: AVL -106 Draw +280, BHA +260 (BONUS CODE)
LINEUP NOTES & INJURY NEWS
Aston Villa
Manager Unai Emery will have to weather the storm of two mandated changes to his starting XI Monday as striker Jhon Duran serves his suspension after receiving a straight red card and full-back Matty Cash also serves a suspension after picking up his fifth yellow card in Villa's 3-0 midweek loss to Newcastle.
In Duran's absence, Ollie Watkins is likely to make his return to the starting XI after seeing Duran selected ahead of him in Villa's most recent four Premier League fixtures. Watkins has scored two goals and assisted twice over his last 14 appearances (nine starts) across all competitions. The long-serving Villa striker is likely to be supported in attack by Morgan Rogers, who has provided eight goal contributions (five goals, three assists) over 18 Premier League starts this season.
In the midfield, Emery's most trusted name on the team sheet is Boubacar Kamara, who has made eight successive starts across all competitions in the holding role. Kamara's partnership in the midfield double-pivot depends on Emery's outlook of the fixture. When seeking a more proactive lineup, Emery has paired Kamara with veteran Youri Tielemans in the No. 6 role. In searching for a more compact lineup, Kamara is typically paired with Amadou Onana while Tielemans moves up a line to play in the No. 10 role behind the striker. Jacob Ramsey (hamstring) could return from an extended absence, which would give Emery another option off the bench.
With Cash unavailable, Emery will be tempted to slide Ezri Konsa from his role in central defense out to the right full-back position. With Konsa vacating a center-back position, Diego Carlos or Tyrone Mings will be set for a rare opportunity to impress in central defense.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton will look to energize their attacking play after managing just two goals over their last three league fixtures. Manager Fabian Hurzeler has selected Joao Pedro in the striker's role in three of their last five, though the forward has not netted a goal since November. Most recently, the manager has continued to select Kaoru Mitoma to play on the left wing in support of the striker, while Brajan Gruda has supported the attack on the right wing in Brighton's most recent two league fixtures.
Young newcomer Julio Enciso earned his first start in Friday's 0-0 draw with Brentford, playing in the midfield No. 10 role and leading the Brighton attack with eight shots attempted (three on goal). Should Enciso make way for alternative options, bet on a return to the starting XI for Georginio Rutter who has scored two goals and assisted twice over 17 Premier League appearances (13 starts).
Carlos Baleba is a star in the making in the Brighton midfield. The young Cameroonian has made 15 appearances (13 starts) and, most recently, has started in five successive fixtures. Hurzeler's options in a midfield pairing with Baleba are most likely Yasin Ayari or Matt O'Riley, as James Milner (hamstring) and Jack Hinshelwood (knee) each remain out and Mats Wieffer (undisclosed) is questionable for the fixture.
Across the backline, Hurzeler has depended upon the central defensive pairing of Lewis Dunk and Jan Paul van Hecke. Pervis Estupinan is likely to patrol the left flank and support the attack with crosses. At right full-back, Hurzeler has most often opted for Joel Veltman, though Tariq Lamptey is an option on a short week.
FORMATIONS
Aston Villa are likely to line up in their familiar and well-drilled 4-2-3-1 under Emery. The experienced manager has prioritized defensive solidity in Europe, allowing just three goals over six matches. However, the Villans boast the sixth-worst defensive record in the Premier League, conceding 29 goals over 18 matches.
Brighton are also likely to rollout the base 4-2-3-1 formation they've become accustomed to playing under their new manager. However, Hurzeler has shown his willingness to adapt his approach based on opponent and game flow throughout the season. Expect to see the manager adjust his team's shape as the match progresses and use variations of a 4-3-3 and 4-2-2-2 at times.
RECENT FORM
Aston Villa (LWLWW) suffered a winless November, but to a degree, have bounced back in December, winning four matches and losing three across all competitions. Villa have scored six goals and conceded seven over their last five Premier League fixtures.
Brighton & Hove Albion (DDLDL) have yet to win in the month of December. In five league fixtures, the Seagulls have lost twice and drawn on three occasions while being outscored 8-5.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ollie Watkins: After being supplanted by Jhon Duran as Villa's first-choice striker over Villa's last four league fixtures, expect Watkins to be eager to reestablish his role in the side, given the opportunity to play while Duran serves his suspension. On the season, Watkins has scored seven goals and assisted three times over 18 Premier League appearances (14 starts).
Kaoru Mitoma: Brighton's dribbling virtuoso has gone five successive fixtures without a goal contribution, though he's created 10 chances over that span. Given the rotation Villa will be forced into at full-back, expect Mitoma to relish his opportunities on the ball and dictate play for a Brighton attack in need of a kick start.
BETTING PICKS & PREDICTION
Premier League Odds Comparisons
Man of the Match: Morgan Rogers
When Villa are able to create fluid attacking opportunities on the counter attack or through sustained possession, Rogers is usually the man on the ball. Expect Emery to conjure a game plan that will leverage his contingent of midfielders to occupy Brighton's defensive specialist, Baleba, in an effort to free Rogers to make deep runs in behind when Villa hold-up play or to supply the ball to a slashing Watkins into the space behind a less than fleet footed Brighton backline.
Result: Aston Villa 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion
UPCOMING EPL FIXTURES
Aston Villa: Jan. 4 vs. Leicester City
Brighton & Hove Albion: Jan. 4 vs. Arsenal
