FanDuel Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Targets

For detailed stats and odds, check out the Fantasy Champions League: Wednesday Cheat Sheet.

MATCHES (EST)

3:00 p.m: Tottenham v. Dortmund
3:00 p.m: Ajax v. Real Madrid

FORWARDS

Fernando Llorente, TOT v. DOR ($10,000): This is a weird pick for my top forward, but unless you think Karim Benzema ($13,000) will score a brace, it's the right play. Even Gareth Bale ($12,500) still isn't fully fit and likely won't make it to 70 minutes, something he hasn't done since December. Llorente is fairly cheap for a guy starting up front for Spurs, and while he's not as good as the other options, he's made the score sheet in his last three appearances. The other part of the equation is Dortmund. While they were impressive in the group stage, they haven't been as good on the road and have allowed three goals in each of their last two matches, both at home. You can either spend on Benzema or Bale, or save some money and hope one of those guys doesn't go off.

Dusan Tadic, AJA v. MAD ($9,000): Tadic proved his viability in the group stage, not only showing his upside with a couple braces, but also with a floor of at least 10 fantasy points in every match. That floor is the reason to trust him above teammate Klaas-Jan Huntelaar ($7,500), who doesn't do much outside of making the score sheet. Tadic also comes in with 12 goals in his last 13 matches in all competitions. The target for Tadic will be to create a couple chances and get a couple shots on goal and that will be enough. He did that in previous matchups against Man United, and while Real Madrid are playing well, they've still had issues on the road in league play with a goal differential of zero (22:22).

Vinicius Junior, MAD at AJA ($6,500): If Vinicius starts, he may be the most valuable play on the slate. The 18-year-old has started the last six league matches for Real and should be ready for this contest after playing 57 minutes at Atletico Madrid on Saturday. You can't do better for the price, as he's averaging 2.00 shots on goal and 1.67 chances created per 90 minutes. As the biggest favorite on the slate, he'll have a chance to make the score sheet, but if he can reach 10 points, you can't do better when most of the other forwards will struggle to reach value. Maximilian Philipp ($7,500) could also be a cheap option if he gets the start, he's more of a GPP play.

MIDFIELDERS

Toni Kroos, MAD at AJA ($9,500): Given the price of the Real Madrid forwards, it's surprising to see Kroos below $10,000 after he averaged 25.4 fantasy points in the group stage. His floor was juiced in those matches, but there's no reason he can't hit 20 points again through chances created, tackles and maybe a shot on goal. When Kroos makes the score sheet, he's usually the best value on the slate and that's always the hope. Even if he doesn't, his floor is better than most, especially against Ajax.

Son Heung-Min, TOT v. DOR ($8,000): You could probably find a reason to back any of the midfielders, but none of them have eight goals and three assists in their last eight starts. Son hasn't been stopped in the last month-plus and had no after-effects from playing in the Asian Cup for a couple weeks. Christian Eriksen ($9,000) is also in play and probably has a better floor, but Son has the best scoring odds on the team and is tied for third-best on the slate. It's hard to go against him at this price with his form, while Luka Modric ($8,500), who rarely makes the score sheet, is more expensive. Both Ajax guys are also in play between Hakim Ziyech ($8,000) and Lasse Schone ($7,500), as both have solid floors, though against Real they don't have the same upside as Son.

Jadon Sancho, DOR at TOT ($8,000): It's a question between Sancho and Mario Gotze ($7,500) and I'm leaning toward the former since he's more likely to start and has held a higher floor. Sancho has three goals and three assists in his last seven starts, but he also provides multiple chances and a couple shots each match. It's a little more questionable for Gotze, who isn't guaranteed to start and isn't on corners, which is why Sancho is worth the extra $500. Tottenham are favored, but not by much and seemingly always have an issue defensively in the knockout rounds. Most of the other options in this range are defensive midfielders or someone like Erik Lamela ($7,500), who is often a trap whenever in the starting XI.

DEFENDERS

Raphael Guerreiro, DOR at TOT ($7,000): Guerreiro makes too much sense, and I couldn't find many reasons not to use him. While he may get subbed early, he remains an attacking midfielder who takes corners, which isn't fair for a listed defender. While the defensive stats aren't there, he has six shots on goal and 13 chances created in his last four starts, making the score sheet three times. Even as an underdog, those numbers and possible upside are hard to pass up after he already bagged a brace against Monaco and Atletico in the group stage. I like Kieran Trippier ($7,000) and Nicolas Tagliafico too ($6,500), but the potential isn't comparable.

Abdou Diallo, DOR at TOT ($5,500): Most of the players in this range are almost the same, but Diallo is a center-back on an underdog so he should be the safest. He reached a floor of 15 fantasy points a couple times in the group stage, hitting 24.9 against Atletico with eight clearances. Tottenham have forced the most clearances in the Premier League over the last five gameweeks, and some of that has to do with Llorente up front. Diallo has a similar floor to the likes of Davinson Sanchez ($5,500) and Sergio Ramos ($5,500), but he's most likely to come close to 20 floor points.

Matthijs de Ligt, AJA v. MAD ($4,500): De Ligt is underpriced considering he had a floor of 10 fantasy points in the group stage and hit 19 points a couple times. He averaged 3.60 clearances and 2.20 tackles in those matches, and while those aren't big numbers, the opportunity will be there to surpass those averages in this matchup. Real forced the second-most clearances in the group stage and are near the top of the charts in interceptions and blocks allowed in La Liga. You could consider Danny Rose and Raphael Varane at the same price because of better clean sheet odds, but they don't have the same floors. The other option would be Omer Toprak ($4,500), who could start due to injuries, though he had a floor of 5.2 points against Atletico, so he isn't the safest choice.

GOALKEEPER

Andre Onana, AJA v. MAD ($4,500): Since I'm fading Benzema and Bale, it makes sense to back Onana in net. While he could allow three goals, which he did against Bayern Munich in the group stage, he still managed 10.5 fantasy points with the help of six saves. There's a chance that happens again since Real have lacked efficiency all season, taking a La Liga-high 374 shots but only scoring 40 goals. It's a similar situation in UCL with the most shots (121) but sixth-most goals (12). Thibaut Courtois ($6,000) is the only other goalkeeper I'd trust since the Dortmund-Tottenham match is more of a toss up.