FanDuel Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday UCL Targets

MATCHES (EST)

• 3:00 pm: Atlético Madrid vs. Chelsea
• 3:00 pm: Lazio vs. Bayern Munich

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

FanDuel Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday UCL Cheat Sheet

FORWARDS/MIDFIELDERS

Robert Lewandowski, BAY at LAZ ($23): Lewandowski has the best odds to score, and it's not really close. He's scored in 11 of his last 12 league matches, which is the only relevant information you need. Lazio have played well at home of late, giving up just one goal in their last five, but they've also struggled away against better competition, allowing three goals each to Inter and Atalanta. Given Bayern Munich's scoring rate, it's usually best to lean on them, but Lazio's defensive numbers are worth considering (they beat Borussia Dortmund 3-1 at home in the group stage). However, there aren't a ton of other places to go for goals since this matchup has an implied goal total about one more than the other game. Unless you think Bayern are held scoreless, it'd be wise to use at least one of their players. Leroy Sane ($21) and Kingsley Coman ($19) are next up to hit the back of the net, while Thomas Muller ($18) is out because of COVID-19. Leon Goretzka ($14) is unlikely for a full 90 after recently returning from COVID-19, while Joshua Kimmich ($16) may be the easiest option in cash games. As long as his teammates are connecting on corners, Kimmich usually hits at least 10 fantasy points from chances created. He had a floor of 27.6 fantasy points last league match, and that's happened a couple times this season. He's an easy player to stack with Lewandowski because they can connect on set pieces and the two together isn't an overwhelming price.

Ciro Immobile, LAZ v. BAY ($19): Lazio are underdogs, but they have a higher implied goal total than Chelsea and Atletico Madrid. Immobile is also almost automatic to get at least one shot on target, as he's averaging 1.59 per 90 minutes in league play and was better in four UCL matches (2.20 per 90). He's hit at least 12 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 league starts, producing eight goals and two assists in that period. It's not Lewandowski level, but no matter the matchup, he's usually involved even if he doesn't make the score-sheet. It also helps that Bayern haven't been consistent on the defensive end this season, giving up five goals to Eintracht Frankfurt and Arminia Bielefeld in their last two league matches. Some of that has to do with injuries, COVID-19 and a busy schedule, but five other teams have allowed fewer goals in the Bundesliga. Lazio will get their chances and they'll likely be through Immobile. Luis Alberto ($15) is another value option as a set-piece taker who also gets about one shot on target every match. Joaquin Correa ($13) is more of a GPP play because while he's up front next to Immobile, he has just two goals in 16 league appearances. If you want a cheap floor that could come near 10 points from defensive stats, Lucas Leiva ($8) is your guy.

Mason Mount, CHE at ATM ($17): The Chelsea at Atletico Madrid match is hard to project and that's what the odds show for the match being played in Bucharest, Romania. The most consistent player between the two teams is Mount, who continues to take the majority of set pieces for Chelsea and has at least 11 fantasy points in each of his last 11 league starts. The question is what happens when two teams that have moved to a three-man back line this season face each other. Both Chelsea and Atletico controlled recent matches against Sheffield United and Levante (both used three-man back lines), respectively, but going against a team with similar talent is a little different. I'm going Mount because Atletico's back line has been iffy, giving up goals in each of their last seven league matches. In what should be an even match, Mount should get his usual set pieces, as well as opportunities on net, leading to his usual floor. Relying on Timo Werner ($20) or a forward between Olivier Giroud ($18) and Tammy Abraham ($16) is another story. Those guys don't have the same floor and you need a goal for them to hit value. For example, Werner had 1.3 fantasy points in the recent match against Southampton.

Joao Felix, ATM v. CHE ($17): Felix is mostly a play on upside in case Chelsea's back line makes a few mistakes. Felix doesn't have a huge floor and may not go a full 90, but he's talented and can bag a brace against anyone. His upside was most prevalent in the group stage when he scored two goals from seven shots in a win against Red Bull Salzburg. He had COVID-19 earlier this month and isn't a consistent scorer in league play, but his upside is what wins GPPs. It's a little harder to back him in cash games because he doesn't provide much of a floor and most of his fantasy points come from shots on target, something that isn't guaranteed in what's expected to be a low-scoring contest. Luis Suarez ($21) is more expensive, but he's a better goal scorer and has had a decent floor in league play, scoring at least 12 points in nine of his last 10. The problem is that spending on him will take you away from another Bayern guy or Immobile. For value, Koke ($9) is oddly cheap despite having a split role on set pieces and usually adding a couple defensive stats every match.

DEFENDERS

Mateo Musacchio, LAZ v. BAY ($5): I wouldn't base your lineup around this, but Musacchio started over the weekend and could start Tuesday at minimum price. He took the spot of Wesley Hoedt last league match and played well, reaching 12.8 fantasy points with a clean sheet. If he starts, he's cheap and faces Bayern, who will inevitably force a ton of defensive action. If he doesn't start, Jerome Boateng ($7) is next cheapest despite scoring and having a respectable floor in the group stage. For comparison, fellow defender Niklas Sule ($15) is the most expensive option.

Renan Lodi, ATM v. CHE ($11): I don't think there's a defender to spend up for with Lewandowski and Co. on the slate. But because of Musacchio, you may be able to squeeze in Lodi, who is at a discount for a wing-back who is splitting set pieces. He had a floor of 17.2 points last league match, and while that probably won't happen against Chelsea, he usually adds a decent amount of defensive stats on the wing, and corners only add to his floor. It helps that Atletico have other injuries, so similar to that last league match, he shouldn't be subbed off early. If you don't have that kind of money, David Alaba ($10), Antonio Rudiger ($8) and Patric ($8) are all viable options to pair with Musacchio.

GOALKEEPER

Edouard Mendy, CHE at ATM ($9): I'm not opposed to spending up on Manuel Neuer ($13), but if you're using Immobile, I'd go with a goalkeeper from the match with a much lower implied goal total. I'm going Mendy only because I prefer Mount to anyone on Atletico, but it depends on who you prefer. If you use Felix or Saurez, it makes more sense to use Jan Oblak ($10). While Chelsea haven't been reliable, they've been better defensively than Atletico over the last month and this isn't a true home match, so that doesn't mean anything. Chelsea haven't allowed more than one goal since Thomas Tuchel arrived, while Atletico have allowed two goals in three of their last five in league play.