DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Picks

MATCHES (EDT)

• 3:00 pm: Atlético Madrid vs. Juventus
• 3:00 pm: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Lokomotiv Moscow
• 3:00 pm: Bayern Munich vs. Red Star Belgrade
• 3:00 pm: Dinamo Zagreb vs. Atalanta
• 3:00 pm: FC Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Manchester City
• 3:00 pm: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Real Madrid

FORWARDS

Robert Lewandowski, BAY v. CRV ($10,200): The case for Lewandowski is quite simple: Bayern Munich are -2000 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook and he has -385 odds to score at least one goal and +143 to score at least two. He's also been tearing up the Bundesliga, scoring seven goals in four games while averaging 5.25 shots, including 3.00 on target, and 2.25 fouls won per 90 minutes. He's the most expensive player on the slate, and while he's goal dependent to make value, there are plenty of expectations that that won't matter. Kingsley Coman ($8,300) and Thomas Muller ($7,700) are cheaper forward-eligible players from Bayern, but neither of them have the upside of Lewandowski and their floors aren't much different anyway. Pivoting off Lewandowski obviously makes you consider guys like Cristiano Ronaldo ($9,200) or Raheem Sterling ($8,600), but there's a lot of ceiling you're leaving for others.

Leon Bailey, LEV v. LKM ($8,100): This price for Bailey seems a bit crazy given the players in his price range like Eden Hazard ($8,200), Riyad Mahrez ($8,000), Gareth Bale ($7,800), Angel Di Maria ($7,600) and Gabriel Jesus ($7,400), but we can't overlook the fact that Bayer Leverkusen are the second-biggest home favorite (third-biggest on the slate) and Bailey comes in averaging 2.49 shots, including 0.62 on goal, 6,54 crosses, 1.56 shots assisted and 1.56 fouls drawn per 90 minutes in four Bundesliga appearances (three starts). The Leverkusen attack has been up and down this season, scoring three goals in each of their first two games before being shut out in the next two, but a home match against Lokomotiv Moscow should get them back on track. Based on the guys you might be fading, Jesus has the best matchup in terms of odds, if he starts, with Man City the second-biggest favorite on the slate with the second-highest implied goal total. One guy who jumps out a little further down the salary list is Real Madrid's Karim Benzema ($6,700), who has four goals on 18 shots, including eight on target, in four La Liga games this season.

Junior Moraes, SHK v. MCI ($4,800): Shakhtar are huge underdogs at home to Manchester City, which should certainly push ownership away from Moraes, who comes in with seven goals in seven Ukranian Premier League matches this season. His goal odds aren't that good, but he's expected to lead the line against a Manchester City defense that will likely be using third-string centerback Nicolas Otamendi and defensive midfielder Fernandinho as their two central defenders due to injuries to Aymeric Laporte and John Stones. There really shouldn't be any Shakhtar consideration in cash games, but Moraes is a reasonable punt, as is teammate Taison ($4,700).

MIDFIELDERS

Kevin De Bruyne, MCI at SHK ($9,000): While Man City's defense is questionable, there's no denying how good their attack is, with De Bruyne playing a major role on set pieces and creating chances in open play. He was held out of the starting lineup for last weekend's Premier League match against Norwich City, but it was a perfect storm when he finally came in, finishing with 13 crosses and three shots assisted in 33 minutes as Man City tried to make up a two-goal deficit. Expected to rejoin the first XI in Kharkiv, De Bruyne has arguably the highest floor among midfielders because of City's expected dominance of the match and his role on set pieces, though he certainly does not come cheaply.

Kerem Demirbay, LEV v. LKM ($6,400): Demirbay is responsible for most of Leverkusen's set pieces, a role that has helped him to 20 crosses and five chances created in three Bundesliga games (235 total minutes) this season. Karim Bellarabi ($7,900) has been a more active attacker, scoring one goal on 11 shots (three on target) and sending in 18 crosses in his last three starts (253 minutes), with the difference in their prices essentially what you pay for his upside. Paying up even higher for Kai Havertz ($8,500) seems much more suited for GPPs because he's likely to be overlooked in that salary range, but we simply can't ignore that Leverkusen are -286 favorites at home.

James Rodriguez, ROM at PSG ($6,500): While the Paris Saint-Germain v. Real Madrid match is expected to be close, it's also expected to be high scoring, coming in with the third-highest match total on the slate. Real Madrid are away underdogs, but they'll be facing a PSG side without Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and Edinson Cavani, while Madrid could be loaded in the attack. James comes in recently sharing set pieces with Toni Kroos ($5,500), who isn't nearly the open-play attacker James showed he can be just last weekend against Levante when he took three shots, sent in seven crosses and picked up an assist on one of his five chances created. Both players' prices are reasonable given the action expected in the match, and James can even fill a forward spot.

DEFENDERS

Joshua Kimmich, BAY v. CRV ($5,700): Kimmich is often the highest-owned defender when he's on a slate, and this one is no different, especially since he's taken on an even bigger share of Bayern Munich's set pieces and they are huge favorites at home. Pricing him under $6,000 all but ensures he'll be one of the highest-owned players in cash games, and fading him in those types of contests simply doesn't make sense. If there's one knock on Kimmich it's that his upside is generally assist-based instead of goal-based, which is clearly seen in the fact he's only taken two shots this season in four 90-minute starts, and they came in the same match, a 6-1 victory over Mainz. But for cash games, why would you fade a guy who takes set pieces and is averaging 7.75 crosses and 3.00 shots assisted per 90 minutes in league play when his team is a -2000 favorite? If you think someone like Manchester City's Joao Cancelo ($5,400) can go off, paying up is an option, but it doesn't seem optimal as a pivot from Kimmich unless it's a GPP and you simply don't want to eat the chalk.

Ismaily, SHK v. MCI ($4,100): It's tough to get excited about a fullback on a side that's a fairly big underdog, but Ismaily has shown over the past few years that he can contribute in the attack and could have a role on set pieces. Additionally, he does enough defensive work to give him a decent floor even if he isn't able to move up. There are a few fullbacks in this salary range who should be considered, like Real Madrid's Dani Carvajal ($4,300) and Ferland Mendy ($4,000), PSG's Thomas Meunier ($4,300), Bayern's Benjamin Pavard ($4,100), and Leverkusen's Wendell ($4,100) and Lars Bender ($4,200), who each have a decent floor but nothing overpowering that will make them high owned. 

Niklas Sule, BAY v. CRV ($3,200): Sule is one of Bayern Munich's starting center-backs, and while his attacking upside isn't consistently high, he is coming off a three-shot outing against RB Leipzig, including one on goal, and he's completed at least 82 passes in three consecutive matches, including more than 90 in each of the past two. He's a decent target in the box for Kimmich on set pieces, and given Bayern's overwhelming clean sheet odds, Sule makes sense as a GPP pay-down option.

GOALKEEPER

Dominik Livakovic, ZAG v. ATA ($4,400): Zagreb are home underdogs to Atalanta, whose high-flying attack has scored seven goals on 65 shots, including 28 on goal, in three Serie A matches this season. That seems to work counter to what we're trying to accomplish with a goalkeeper, but we also can't ignore that no team has forced more saves in the Italian top flight than Atalanta's 22. The hope with Livakovic is that Zagreb can hang on for a tough victory at home while racking up the saves, but his low price clearly indicates the oddsmakers expect him to lose. If you're looking to pay down even further, both keepers facing German sides -- Guilherme ($3,700) against Leverkusen and Milan Borjan ($3,600) against Munich -- are the options, with Borjan likely having the highest save potential on the slate.