DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday UCL Picks

MATCHES (EST)

• 3:00 pm: Atalanta vs. Dinamo Zagreb
• 3:00 pm: Juventus vs. Atlético Madrid
• 3:00 pm: Manchester City vs. FC Shakhtar Donetsk
• 3:00 pm: Real Madrid vs. Paris Saint-Germain
• 3:00 pm: Red Star Belgrade vs. Bayern Munich
• 3:00 pm: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Olympiacos

For detailed stats and odds, check out the DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday UCL Cheat Sheet.

FORWARDS

Riyad Mahrez, MCI v. DON ($9,100): Manchester City are the biggest favorite on the slate, and Mahrez continues to exhibit a strong floor with goal-scoring upside. We get a little bit of a discount for Man City's center forward because Gabriel Jesus ($8,600) is expected to start for the injured Sergio Aguero ($10,000), but he doesn't have Mahrez's floor. The same applies to Raheem Sterling ($9,700), though in actuality you're not playing any of these guys for their floors. It just helps that Mahrez is more likely to finish with 20-25 points instead of 12-15 if he does find the back of the net. You can certainly stack a few Man City forwards, though that likely prices you out of Kevin De Bruyne ($9,500), who continues to take a majority of their set pieces and leads them in shots assisted.

Son Heung-Min, TOT v. OLY ($9,000): Tottenham came out firing in their first match under new manager Jose Mourinho this past weekend, with Son accounting for one goal on three shots (two on target) and one assist on three chances created. He's been in red-hot form, scoring four goals on 16 shots (eight on target) and adding one assist on six chances created in his last three games, making him a more exciting pick than teammate Harry Kane ($9,400), whose appearances on the scoresheet haven't been nearly as consistent. We also can't ignore the potential that Son could be on set pieces, though it's a bit of a long shot. Additionally, Lucas Moura ($7,400), who also scored against West Ham this past weekend, could also be an option because of the price break. Man City and Tottenham are the two biggest favorites on the slate, but Bayern Munich is also a big favorite despite playing away to Olympiacos, and if you don't want to trust the English sides, paying up for Robert Lewandowski ($10,700) is always a possibility, especially since he has the highest anytime goal scorer odds on the slate. He failed to score a goal last weekend against Dusseldorf, the first time he hadn't scored in a Bundesliga or Champions League game this season, though he still took six shots (one on target) and had an assist on three chances created. The trip to Greece isn't overly difficult, but it's definitely harder than what Manchester City and Tottenham will face. Paying down for Kingsley Coman ($8,000) is also a possibility, though he'll have to score to keep up with the English teams' attackers. You could also be tempted by Alphonso Davies ($6,100) because he's forward eligible, but he's also likely to start at left-back, which limits his upside.

Angel Di Maria, PSG at RMA ($8,500): Di Maria's floor is disrupted significantly if Neymar ($9,200) starts, but this is more about making sure you don't ignore this game even though it's between two titans. Paris Saint-Germain continue to put up comical scores during Ligue 1 play,and they've done well enough in the Champions League where we shouldn't fear a matchup against Real Madrid, even with five clean sheets in their last six La Liga and UCL games. Given the players on the slate, it seems sub-optimal to not pay up for two forwards, as the loss of ceiling when goals are expected will really put you behind. That all but takes the Juventus v. Atletico Madrid match out of the equation, as it has by far the lowest total, and while you could get cute with the Atalanta v. Dinamo Zagreb game, the difficulty is that you need enough production to outlast the guys from Real Madrid and PSG, not to mention Manchester City, Tottenham and Bayern Munich. Di Maria's floor is one of the highest on the slate if Neymar doesn't start, and his goal-scoring upside is plenty high, even if it's not on the level of Kylian Mbappe ($8,800) or Karim Benzema ($8,300).

MIDFIELDERS

Kevin De Bruyne, MCI v. DON ($9,500): De Bruyne is the reason to consider paying down at a forward or defender spot to fit his salary, as he's the primary set-piece taker for the biggest favorite on the slate. There's no denying his ridiculous floor, especially when Manchester City are supposed to crush Shahktar Donetsk, but his lower goal-scoring odds have to take him down a notch. Of course, he scored a goal this past weekend, but he's always going to be more about floor than ceiling. He's considerably more than the other top midfielders on the slate, including Atalanta's Alejandro Gomez ($7,400), Real Madrid's Toni Kroos ($7,100) and even possibly Tottenham's Christian Eriksen ($7,200), but he also has a significant floor advantage as a huge favorite.

Marko Marin, CRV v. BAY ($6,300): Marin, Dinamo Zagreb's Dani Olmo ($6,400) and Juventus' Miralem Pjanic ($6,700) represent the group of somewhat cheaper set-piece takers, though their matchups really don't make them ideal options, especially with Marin and Olmo actually underdogs. Sure, they do everything for their sides, but a 12-point floor just usually isn't enough on a Champions League slate at these prices, also because there are defenders who could match their floors while also having clean sheet upside. However, paying down a bit for Luka Modric ($4,800) could be the play if Kroos doesn't start again, as Modric has taken set pieces for Real Madrid in each of the past two games, and his salary is certainly enticing given the goals expected in their match against PSG.

Harry Winks, TOT v. OLY ($3,900): Winks' spot in the first XI is hardly guaranteed, but he should be in consideration if he starts after taking five of Tottenham's seven corners last weekend against West Ham. The five crosses from those corners were his only crosses in the game, and he was only able to create one chance, but his low salary for a big favorite definitely puts him on the radar. Tanguy Ndombele ($5,600) has also taken some, though he's been battling a groin injury lately and there's no guarantee he takes them if he starts since we're still figuring out what Mourinho will do. Winks also represents the group of lower-priced defensive midfielders who get attention during Champions League slates when there are numerous players worth paying up for, which means guys like Casemiro ($4,300) and Leon Goretzka ($4,100) will get some looks, possibly over someone like Giorgos Masouras ($4,100), who is likely to take most of Olympiacos' set pieces, though you have to wonder how many they will even get.

DEFENDERS

Joshua Kimmich, BAY at CRV ($6,600): Kimmich is the most expensive defender on the slate, but as a set-piece taker for a huge favorite, he has to be in the conversation, especially against the similarly priced midfielders mentioned above. His open-play crossing isn't nearly as strong because he's been lining up in the defensive midfield, and he only has four chances created in his last four games, but Kimmich will be popular because of his role and matchup. Atletico Madrid's Kieran Trippier ($6,100) would be another option, though a matchup away to Juventus doesn't seem like one worth spending so much salary on when Kimmich is close enough.

Dani Carvajal, RMA v. PSG ($4,500): The Real Madrid fullbacks certainly like to attack more when they're at home, and while the PSG attack will make them defend more than usual, that might be an advantage for Carvajal, who actually gets some defensive stats, unlike Marcelo ($4,900), a winger trapped in a defender's body (or at least position). The price isn't bad for his floor, and while a clean sheet is highly unlikely, it's the attacking output we're more interested in. If you want a bigger favorite, Angelino ($4,700) could be a solid play for Manchester City, while there's a possibility that Danny Rose ($5,300) could take set pieces for Tottenham.

Timothy Castagne, ATA v. ZAG ($3,900): Both Atalanta wingbacks should be in play against Zagreb, though Castagne comes at a decent discount versus Hans Hateboer ($4,600). That being said, Hateboer is definitely the more active attacker, so his floor is higher, but sometimes you just need to save some salary and give up the two floor points. Definitely pay attention to lineups, however, as we could see some cheap punts come about because there are a few teams who are already pretty much out of it or have already advanced.

GOALKEEPER

Jan Oblak, ATL at JUV ($4,300): The Juventus v. Atletico Madrid match has by far the lowest total on the slate, but Oblak still has plenty of save upside, particularly if Cristiano Ronaldo starts. It doesn't give any added confidence that Oblak has failed to get a clean sheet in five straight games, but he's at least been in the positives and isn't an overwhelming underdog like Milan Borjan ($3,800), Jose Sa ($3,700) or Andriy Pyatov ($3,600).