DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday Bundesliga Picks

MATCHES (EDT)

• 2:30 pm: Bayer Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg
• 2:30 pm: Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg
• 2:30 pm: Werder Bremen vs. Mönchengladbach

For additional stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday Bundesliga Cheat Sheet

MIDFIELDERS

Filip Kostic, SGE v. SCF ($10,000): We're going to start with midfielders because this slate is loaded with them, both for cash games and GPPs. Kostic is the most expensive player, but he's also the best floor player in the Bundesliga, scoring by far the most fantasy points excluding goals and assists this season. His floor is so high that despite being tied for 53rd in goals (four) and seventh in assists (eight), only Robert Lewandowski (27 goals and three assists) and Timo Werner (24 goals and seven assists) have more total fantasy points.

Admittedly, he's struggled a bit out of the re-start, scoring just 7.3 fantasy points against Borussia Monchengladbach and then 9.9 against Bayer Leverkusen, but he now faces an SC Freiburg side that's conceded the most shots, most chances created and second-most crosses among teams on the slate. There's really no discussion about whether Kostic is a good play, it's just a matter of whether his high salary is workable, and given some potential values based on rotation, it seems likely that it is. Kostic is certainly the cash play option, but there are likely to be plenty of people who go back to Kai Havertz ($9,400) after he scored two goals in each of the past two games, especially with Bayer Leverkusen the biggest favorite on the slate with the highest implied goal total. Havertz's floor is always based on his shots, though he's been active in that department too, taking nine and putting four on goal (yes, every shot on goal has ended up in the back of the net) while adding three chances created and three fouls drawn, and he has the second-highest anytime goal scorer odds on the slate. I can't fault you for going there again, but he's likely to be highly owned in tournaments, especially lower-stakes.

Jonas Hofmann, MGB at SVW ($7,200): The second tier of midfielders has a few different options, though lineups will greatly determine who is the best fit from the group. Hofmann gets included because he takes a majority of set pieces for Borussia Monchengladbach, who face a Werder Bremen side that's allowed the most crosses and third-most chances created in the league this season. One thing to note is that 42 of his 54 crosses have come from corners or free kicks, and there are six teams in the league that have allowed more corners than Werder Bremen, so you're pretty much relying on maybe not-too-many dead-ball opportunities for Hofmann to get his floor points. Then again, if the lineup rotation works in our favor, we could get the opportunity to grab Laszlo Benes ($4,200), who took two corners in 14 minutes off the bench this past weekend and would seem certain to at least get a share of set pieces if he starts. And if you think you're going to get him at low ownership, try again. Bayer Leverkusen make up some other members of this price range, with Kerem Demirbay ($8,200) looking awesome, with one goal one five shots (three on target) and two assists on four chances created in the past two games. Demirbay's role on set pieces definitely helps his floor, but after going 90 in each game since the re-start, it seems like a good opportunity to rest him, especially since Nadiem Amiri ($7,700) didn't play at all this past weekend. Amiri usually takes some corners when he's on, and it's possible he gets a bigger share if Demirbay doesn't play (it gets a bit more complicated based on another potential starter, who will be discussed later).

Nope, we're not done. Werder Bremen's Leonardo Bittencourt ($7,000) found the back of the net this past weekend and continues to have a role on corners, though it's possible Milot Rashica ($6,900, midfield/forward) could eat into them. Bittencourt's salary seems a bit high given the matchup against Borussia Monchengladbach, especially given how close he is to the potential Bayer Leverkusen set-piece takers. Finally, Maximilian Arnold ($6,800) shouldn't go ignored despite his tough matchup away to Leverkusen because he just always seems to get there, especially at this price, but Leverkusen allow the fewest crosses, chances created, shots and shots on goal among teams on the slate. He's kind of in a weird spot where his upside isn't great for GPPs, but he might not be the best cash play based on the matchup even though he's one of the most consistent floor players in the Bundesliga (you'll find him fourth in the chart above).

Sebastian Rode, SGE v. SCF ($4,300): Benes is likely to be highly owned if he starts, but if not then Rode could be the popular pay-down option. Kostic has taken a vast majority of Eintracht Frankfurt's set pieces this season, but Rode occasionally swipes a few and even took two of three this past weekend. Fantasy players who rostered Hoffenheim's Sebastian Rudy in either of the past two slates will be drawn to Rode, who has three assists on four chances created in the past two games. Other potential lower-priced options, including some that could open up due to squad rotation, are Werder Bremen's Nuri Sahin ($3,700), SC Freiburg's Nicolas Hofler ($3,600) and Eintracht Frankfurt's Daichi Kamada ($4,800), though Rode and Benes will surely be higher owned.

FORWARDS

Leon Bailey, LEV v. WOB ($9,200): With the expectation of lineup rotation, we could see a spot start for Bailey, who played 28 and 24 minutes off the bench in the past two games, respectively. You could certainly make the argument that Bayer Leverkusen shouldn't mess with their lineup after scoring seven goals since the re-start, but they also have to play their next match Friday, so the possibility is there. If so, Bailey should get a look because he usually has a role on set pieces when he plays (he took two corners against Werder Bremen in the first game back but none this past weekend). His salary is pretty high, especially for a deep team that doesn't need its attackers to go 90 minutes, but as the biggest favorite with the highest implied goal total, Bailey will be considered if the lineup shakes out that he could have a monopoly of set pieces. It's worth noting that Wolfsburg are a solid defensive team, but Bailey's floor and Leverkusen's attack are solid in their own rights. The Borussia Monchengladbach front-line players will also get looks, with Alassane Plea ($8,400), Marcus Thuram ($7,400) and Lars Stindl ($8,500) all potential GPP options.

Roland Sallai, SCF at SGE ($5,700): We saw this past weekend against Bremen how good of a floor team Freiburg can be when they need to get back in games, a match that helped Sallai rack up five shots, including two on goal, two chances created, five crosses and three fouls drawn. 

Vincenzo Grifo ($7,800) is usually the Freiburg forward worth looking for in cash games, especially after he scored 11.1 fantasy points in that Bremen match, but Sallai's cheaper salary make him the more attractive option against Eintracht Frankfurt, a decent defensive team that's allowed the second-fewest crosses but most shots on goal among teams on the slate. And speaking of Frankfurt, whoever starts up front should also be a tournament consideration, with Andre Silva ($6,300) and Bas Dost ($6,200) reasonable plays given they're away favorites and face a team that's allowed the most shots and chances created among teams on the slate.

Davie Selke, SVW v. MGB ($3,500): If you're wondering why a forward with one goal and one assist in 19 appearances (10 starts) lining up for the biggest underdog on the slate with the lowest implied goal total is part of any lineup discussion it's because he's a possible starter and he costs $3,500 on a slate that doesn't have many easy cash-game forwards. Selke has scored more than 3.6 fantasy points in just four starts this season, one of which included that single assist, which was against Freiburg back on Dec. 14. I think there's a reasonable argument that if you're going to totally punt at a position on this slate, it should be forward because there are valuable midfielders and defenders worth paying up for (or at least not sacrificing the roster spot). It's certainly higher risk than many will go, particularly in cash lineups, but we shouldn't ignore this very low price for a home favorite (I know, I know, no fans, whatever).

DEFENDERS

Christian Gunter, SCF at SGE ($6,700): Gunter has the third-most floor points in the Bundesliga this season and only trails Kostic among players on the slate. He's the primary reason why many have faded Grifo recently, and despite being the highest-priced defender, he's still likely to be owned thanks to his role on set pieces and active open-play crossing. Eintracht Frankfurt have allowed the second-fewest crosses among teams on the slate and the fourth-fewest corners in the league, so this isn't the slam dunk that it was this past weekend when he was more than 80 percent owned in most cash games. He would be a consideration as a midfielder at this price, and it's a bit puzzling that he's not classified as a midfielder given how often he's a wing-back, but paying down at another position is one reason why his price might not be so difficult to work with.

Stefan Lainer, MGB at SVW ($4,500): Lainer doesn't have any role on set pieces, but lining up as a fullback against the team that's allowed the most crosses in the Bundesliga this season will make him an attractive option. Teammate Ramy Bensebaini ($6,200) has been the more productive fantasy-point scorer this season, even without as many crosses, but his price is very high because of his role on penalties. That upside is obviously always prevalent, but the salary difference is enough where more are likely to side with Lainer, especially if they're also rostering Gunter.

Michael Lang, SVW v. MGB ($3,400): Lang is pretty much just a figurehead for the rotation possibilities, as it seems pretty unlikely that he'll start ahead of Theodor Gebre Selassie ($3,700) despite playing 90 minutes in each of the past two games. That being said, he makes for an interesting option if he does because he likes to cross and he's cheap. We got a $2,600 fullback this past weekend from Hoffenheim, with Stefan Posch finishing with 8.3 fantasy points, including four fouls committed, and given the congested schedule, it's vital to check lineups and see if we can get another viable punt.

GOALKEEPER

Koen Casteels, WOB at LEV ($4,000): There were plenty of people who were burned by Casteels this past weekend when he finished with minus-3.5 fantasy points against Borussia Dortmund after he conceded two goals and didn't make a single save. His matchup against Bayer Leverkusen isn't the perfect opportunity, but one major difference between Dortmund and Leverkusen is that the latter has forced the second-most saves in the Bundesliga this season while the former forced the eighth-most. It's not that Casteels is in a good position for a win or a clean sheet, but the save opportunities should be there even if he does concede.