This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (EDT)
- 10:00 am: Burnley vs. Norwich City
- 10:00 am: Chelsea vs. Southampton
- 10:00 am: Leeds United vs. Watford
- 10:00 am: Wolverhampton vs. Newcastle United
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Raphinha, LEE v. WAT ($10,700): There aren't expected to be a ton of goals on this slate, so paying up for Raphinha's floor seems justified even at his high salary. He has a strong share of set pieces and plays for the favored team in the match with the highest total (Leeds have the second-highest implied goal total but are the third-biggest favorite). The other side of this match presents another high-floor player in Ismaila Sarr ($9,300), who is averaging over 12.0 floor points per 90 minutes this season, and that's without any set pieces. With values throughout the slate, paying up for two forwards could be a decent strategy.
Dwight McNeil, BUR v. NOR ($8,300): Burnley are favored at home against Norwich, who have allowed the third-most crosses in the Premier League this season, including the most among teams on Saturday's slate. It's not a cheap price, and McNeil still shares set pieces, but he certainly makes for a viable cash play in his price range. GPP players interested in Burnley could probably move to Chris Wood ($6,300) for a cheap goal given that he has the third-highest anytime goal scorer odds among expected starters, though his floor has been quite low.
Milot Rashica, NOR at BUR ($5,300): The other side of Burnley's match could offer a decent cash option in Rashica, if he starts, because he's had a decent role on set pieces and is a good open-play crosser. Burnley haven't allowed an extreme number of crosses this season, though only two teams have conceded more shots and only three have given up more goals, shots on target and chances created. Given that situation, Teemu Pukki ($6,100) could be a decent GPP target too.
MIDFIELDERS
Ashley Westwood, BUR v. NOR ($5,800): No one ever feels great about rostering Westwood, and it's much more of a cash-game move than GPP, but a share of set pieces against a Norwich side that's allowed the second-most corners and crosses in the Premier League this season has to make him a consideration. His floor has been buoyed by an increase in fouls drawn (he's averaging a career-high 1.6 per 90), but that's still a positive because he could be taking the free kicks after those fouls. Pairing him with Wood isn't the craziest GPP strategy if the slate is as low scoring as expected, but Westwood remains more of an option for cash games. The other side of the match could give us another cheap set-piece taker, as Mathias Normann ($5,000) took set pieces for Norwich last week, though his spot in the starting XI isn't guaranteed again.
Joao Moutinho, WOL v. NEW ($6,400): This price surely feels like an overpay for Moutinho, but a share of set pieces for the second-biggest favorite on the slate should at least get our attention. We've seen Daniel Podence ($5,400) get a bit of playing time recently, including some set pieces off the bench, and he would certainly be a more fun option than Moutinho, who absolutely needs an assist to hit his ceiling (he's highly unlikely to score a goal). There aren't truly elite midfielders on this slate, so we may have to get by with these floor guys and hope for the upside elsewhere.
Timo Werner, CHE v. SOU ($7,900): I'm cheating a bit here because pretty much anyone would play Werner in a forward spot, but we can't get this far without talking about the biggest favorite on the slate. Romelu Lukaku ($10,500, forward) has the highest anytime goal scorer odds and should be popular, but Werner can't be overlooked if he starts. His floor hasn't been great this season, but given the opponent and his potential opportunity in the attack, he should surely be in consideration. The same applies to Kai Havertz ($7,500) if he starts, with the known risk that they are pretty worthless, especially for tournaments, if they don't get on the score-sheet.
DEFENDERS
Matt Ritchie, NEW at WOL ($6,000): The matchup isn't ideal, but Ritchie has a monopoly of set pieces for Newcastle and no defender on the slate is averaging more crosses per 90 minutes this season. Given his floor and the lack of goals expected, Ritchie could be the most popular defender both in cash games and GPPs. There are other high-priced options at the position, and given the potential savings at forward and midfielder, we could see lineups with two or three defenders. If that's the case, whoever starts at left-back for Chelsea -- either Ben Chilwell ($6,600) or Marcos Alonso ($7,100) -- could be in plenty of lineups, especially since they are significantly better values than the comparably priced midfielders.
Junior Firpo, LEE v. WAT ($4,100): Firpo has been scoring more like a center-back, but the Leeds left-back could have more success moving up in the attack against Watford, who have allowed the fourth-most crosses among teams on the slate. Or, if you actually like the Watford side, Danny Rose ($4,000) is similarly priced and even snagged some corners last weekend. That being said, these guys are really just representative of what you get when you fade the higher-priced options, and the realistic outcomes for those guys is significantly greater than the difference between the higher and mid-priced midfielders.
GOALKEEPER
Karl Darlow, NEW at WOL ($3,900): Darlow is the second-cheapest goalkeeper on the slate while playing a side that's scored the second-fewest goals this season. If there's slight concern it's that Wolves have greatly under-performed their xG, but this salary makes the risk worth taking. Otherwise, paying all the way up for Edouard Mendy ($5,900) could make sense if you want to hedge one of the Chelsea goal scorers since he has by far the highest win and clean sheet odds.
