This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: AFC Bournemouth vs. Fulham
- 10:00 am: Huddersfield Town vs. Watford
- 10:00 am: West Ham United vs. Leicester City
- 10:00 am: Wolverhampton vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
- 12:30 pm: Newcastle United vs. Southampton
For detailed stats and odds, check out the DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Cheat Sheet.
FORWARDS
Joshua King, BOU v. FUL ($6,700): The forward pool is pretty light on reliable cash-game options, which will likely have people playing at least one goal-dependent player at the position. Callum Wilson ($9,100) is the most expensive forward, which is understandable given he leads the line for the biggest favorite on the slate and has the highest anytime goal scorer odds.
That being said, he actually hasn't been shooting as much as King lately, and King has better odds to score than anyone other than Wilson and Jamie Vardy ($8,600), and he provides a $2,400 price break from his teammate. They have the same number of goals over that span, and while Wilson picked up two assists in last weekend's 5-0 destruction of Brighton, King actually created more chances over that five-game run. Add in that King has priority on penalties and I am struggling to see why Wilson is such a significantly better play for cash games or GPPs considering the salary difference.
Aleksandar Mitrovic, FUL at BOU ($6,800): Fulham are the worst team in the Premier League and have already been relegated, but Mitrovic is playing like a guy who doesn't want to go down a division. He ripped off 16 shots, including six on target, and drew five fouls in the past two games alone, and while he hasn't scored a Premier League goal since a brace against Brighton on Jan. 29, his shot floor is just too high to ignore on a slate devoid of set-piece-taking forwards. GPP players will probably focus more on guys like Wilson, Vardy, Raul Jimenez ($8,900) and Salomon Rondon ($7,900), but Mitrovic comes in with goal odds that aren't drastically different but he has a better floor.
Miguel Almiron, NEW v. SOU ($6,300): Here we are again with Almiron, who still hasn't gotten on the scoresheet despite averaging 2.19 shots, including 0.90 on target, 1.55 chances created and 2.45 crosses per 90 minutes since transferring to Newcastle. His floor is decent because of those averages, plus his 1.16 tackles won and 1.80 fouls drawn, and given his lower price than a lot of the goal-dependent forwards, he's likely to be popular in cash games. If you're looking to pay down even further, Danny Ings ($5,500) isn't the craziest play (certainly less crazy than paying $7,200 for Nathan Redmond), though we may get a start from Isaac Success ($5,800), who could be in the attack for the team with the second-highest implied goal total. Success' availability is likely to be dependent on whether Gerard Deulofeu ($7,700) is fit enough to start, and while he is likely to have a role on set pieces, I struggle to see him being able to pay off that salary without an appearance on the scoresheet.
MIDFIELDERS
Ryan Fraser, BOU v. FUL ($7,900): Fraser has a monopoly of set pieces for the biggest favorite on the slate. He figures to be very highly owned in cash games because of that, but he showed just last weekend that he has GPP upside as well, scoring one goal and assisting another (or two others, depending on who you ask). Not only is he playing for the biggest favorite, but his opponent has allowed the most crosses (he's third in the Premier League), most shots, most shots on goal and most chances created (he's third in the Premier League there as well) among teams on the slate. It's a bit puzzling that his salary is down $400 from last week given he's now a bigger favorite and the slates are similar, but let's just take the gift and move on.
James Maddison, LEI at WHU ($9,300): Maddison is the most-expensive player on the slate, but that shouldn't keep from being being one of the most popular midfielders in cash games and GPPs. The league-leader in chances created, Maddison has scored at least 9.75 fantasy points in 10 consecutive Premier League games, averaging 3.01 shots, including 0.86 on target, 7.21 crosses, 4.20 chances created, 2.91 fouls drawn and 1.18 tackles won per 90 minutes over that span, one that also included two goals and two assists. The matchup away to West Ham isn't nearly as good as Fraser's at home against Fulham, but the Hammers have struggled of late, allowing multiple goals in five consecutive Premier League matches, a run that included games against Cardiff, Huddersfield and Everton (and Chelsea and Manchester United away).
Solly March, BHA at WOL ($5,500): If there's a team that's been playing worse than West Ham, it's Brighton, losers of four straight Premier League games as they find themselves closer and closer to the relegation line, sitting just two points ahead of Cardiff City. The absences of Pascal Gross ($7,500) and March contributed to their struggles, and while both returned earlier this week, they promptly lost 5-0 at home to Bournemouth. Gross has a slightly bigger role on set pieces, but March is a much more active open-play crosser, making him look like a bargain at $2,000 less. That being said, we can't ignore that Brighton have been horrible and Wolves have conceded the second-fewest crosses among teams on the slate. Speaking of Wolves, there will certainly be people rostering Joao Moutinho ($6,500), who makes sense as the set-piece taker for the second-biggest favorite on the slate, but his open-play production is so low (35 of his 157 crosses this season came in open play) that I usually end up finding other places to go.
DEFENDERS
Chris Lowe, HUD v. WAT ($4,500): As long as Lowe continues to get starts in the midfield, usually as an attacker, he's going to get plenty of consideration from cash-game players. Having sent in 24 crosses and taken six shots in his last four games, Lowe's floor is decent enough to play him despite being the second-biggest underdog on the slate (but really, when are Huddersfield not an underdog?). Lowe is far from a must-play, especially when you might be able to get Adam Masina ($4,300), who could be taking set pieces for Watford, for less, but a combination of the two would be fine. There really aren't defenders you have to pay up for, and while the Southampton and Leicester City fullbacks are fine, you might be better off just paying down.
Jon Stankovic, HUD v. WAT ($3,600): Rostering two Huddersfield defenders feels a bit crazy on the surface, but Stankovic provides more a defensive floor versus Lowe's attacking upside. Whether lining up as a defensive midfielder or center-back, Stankovic's combination of tackles won, fouls drawn and shots has helped him score at least 5.00 fantasy points in four of his last six starts, including one match when he was pulled at half-time in order to allow for a more attacking lineup. You can't expect too much at this price, but the price is really why he's worth consideration.
Matt Doherty, WOL v. BHA ($4,100): Doherty has scored at least 4.25 fantasy points in each of his last three appearances, including 4.75 in just 31 minutes three games ago. No, it's not huge production, and while he doesn't cross that much despite playing as a wing-back, he does take shots and provides enough defensive statistics to make him viable in cash games. Teammate Jonny ($4,500) isn't a bad play either, though there is little that separates the two so I struggle to see the value in spending up other than possibly lower ownership, though Doherty doesn't figure to be highly owned enough for that to really matter.
GOALKEEPER
Angus Gunn, SOU at NEW ($4,500): There are enough playable values on the slate that fantasy players could have money to pay up at goalkeeper. Looking at matchups alone, Artur Boruc ($5,600) is the biggest favorite on the slate while his opponent has forced the second-most saves. And while we lament how bad Bournemouth can be defensively, Boruc has scored at least 10.5 fantasy points in three of his last four starts. Then again, he scored negative-1.5 and negative-6.0 in the two starts before that. Meanwhile, Gunn has hit double digits in three of his last six starts, failing to do so away to Arsenal, away to Manchester United and home against Liverpool, opponents that are head-and-shoulders above Newcastle, who scored one goal in their last three Premier League games (away to Arsenal, home to Crystal Palace, away to Leicester City). Boruc seems like the safest bet (at least in terms of goalkeeper safety), but Gunn's salary could be more helpful if you need it.
