This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
Saturday's five-game Premier League slate is a refreshing change of pace. No team has an implied win probability above 50 percent and no player has better than +140 anytime goalscoring odds. There isn't much separating the matches in terms of implied goal totals, either. I'm not expecting one player or match to be particularly chalky, so you can just lean into the matchups you like best.
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: Burnley vs. West Ham United
- 10:00 am: Luton Town vs. Crystal Palace
- 10:00 am: Newcastle United vs. Chelsea
- 10:00 am: Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
- 10:00 am: Sheffield United vs. AFC Bournemouth
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday Premier League Cheat Sheet
FORWARDS
Pascal Gross (BHA at NFO, $9,400): This is a tough price to pay for Gross if he starts as a full-back, but he has an elite role taking a monopoly of Brighton's set pieces while Solomon March is out injured. If Joao Pedro ($8,100) isn't on the pitch, Gross is also in contention to take penalties. Nottingham Forest have conceded 85 corners this season, which is second most in the Premier League. I think Gross is a fine play if he starts as a full-back and he becomes a top option if he gets to play in a more advanced role. I initially thought Eberechi Eze ($10,100) is too expensive for cash games if he starts with Michael Olise ($9,800), who I think will take at least half of Palace's set pieces. That said, Eze should still be on penalties and is a good option in a solid matchup at Luton Town. If you don't want to pay $9,700 for Kieran Trippier, it's not hard to find the salary for Eze.
Morgan Gibbs-White (NFO vs. BHA, $7,400): With no team a clear favorite, I'm not concerned about rostering underdog players with great set-piece roles in cash games and tournaments. Gibbs-White is affordable in cash games for his set-piece monopol and I think he remains on penalty duty after taking two last season. In tournaments, I am somewhat concerned about Gibbs-White's goal upside. He hasn't scored this season and has a paltry 0.12 expected goals per 90 minutes played. That said, an assist and a 10-point floor is probably enough to pay off his price in GPPs.
Johann Berg Gudmundsson (BRN vs. WHU, $5,600): Gudmundsson has played at least 80 minutes in his past three starts, splitting set pieces with Josh Brownhill ($5,500). I think he's a fine option in cash games, especially with no must-play expensive forward. His price tag also makes it possible to avoid punting at other lineup spots.
There are plenty of GPP options across the price spectrum. Jarrod Bowen ($9,300) is in fine form this season with eight goals and one assist in 12 starts. There is some injury uncertainty with him, but if he is fit enough to start, he's in a great matchup against Burnley. I'm likely to play Olise in a lot of tournament lineups, so I'll be taking some shots on Odsonne Edouard ($7,600). He's played at least 79 minutes in his past eight starts and his goalscoring odds are sitting around +175.
The cheap options are plentiful, as well. Taiwo Awoniyi is out with injury, which thrusts RotoWire favorite Chris Wood ($4,000) into a starting role. I've played Cameron Archer ($4,700) against much more difficult opposition at this price point. Jay Rodriguez ($4,700) has played 90 minutes his past two starts and took penalties for Burnley last season.
MIDFIELDERS
James Ward-Prowse (WHU at BRN, $9,200): Ward-Prowse is a difficult click at this price due to his more defensive role and dependence on set pieces to hit value. But a road trip to Burnley is a great spot for the entire West Ham team and Ward-Prowse is capable of breaking any slate if gamescript goes in his favor. I'm expecting Olise ($9,800) to return to Palace's starting XI against Luton Town. If I knew Olise was going to play 90 minutes, I'd highlight him over Ward-Prowse since he offers much more in open play value. He's coming off a long injury spell, so an early substitution is well within his range of outcomes in his first start of the season.
Marcus Tavernier (BOU at SHU, $6,500): Game logs show that Lewis Cook ($3,800) has taken most of Bournemouth's corners the past few games. Cook is too cheap for a set-piece role and a good punt in cash games and tournaments against a terrible Sheffield United side, but he's been fortunate that most of the Cherries' set pieces have fallen to the left side instead of Tavernier's right side. Tavernier might be a bit of a stretch in cash games and is always an early sub risk, but he's one of my favorite GPP options of the weekend. Cole Palmer ($7,200) has been splitting set pieces with Conor Gallagher ($6,200) and is Chelsea's preferred penalty taker. Gallagher is a fine cash game option in his current role against an injury ravaged Newcastle. Chelsea have improved the past few matches, while Newcastle are coming off a 2-0 loss to Bournemouth.
Gustavo Hamer (SHU vs. BOU, $4,800): Hamer splits set pieces with Oliver Norwood ($5,400) and he's played at least 80 minutes in his past four starts. I think I am a bit higher on Hamer than most, and a return to his amazing game logs for Coventry City in the EFL Championship is wishful thinking at best. But a home matchup against Bournemouth coming off of the break is going to be one of the best matchups of the season for Hamer, who is Sheffield United's most creative attacking player. Cook is probably the move in cash games for $1,000 cheaper if you only play one midfielder in this price range, but I prefer pivoting to Hamer in tournaments.
DEFENDERS
Kieran Trippier (NEW vs. CHE, $9,700): I had some serious sticker shock when I saw Trippier priced this high against Chelsea, but if you want to pay up for him, I think there is plenty of value at midfield and forward that allow you to do so. While I am considering going down that route in cash games, there is some serious opportunity cost at his price tag. You have to forgo a high-end midfielder or forward to play him. If Trippier starts as a left-back, that's also a dent to his open play crossing. In tournaments, 10-to-12 floor points is probably not enough to separate from the entire defender position at his price.
Reece James (CHE at NEW, $5,800): If I knew James was going to play a full 90 minutes, I'd play him in every lineup and I'm still considering him in cash games. Hopefully, he's ready for extended minutes after his recent hamstring injury and following two starts prior to the international break. Even without set pieces, he has a good floor for his price and I think he's more likely to score a goal than the nearby priced forwards and midfielders. With Trippier as expensive as he is along with few other slam dunk defender plays, I'll fully lean into the upside and uncertainty with James in GPPs.
Jayden Bogle (SHU vs. BOU, $3,200): Sheffield United's manager mentioned that Bogle has been carrying a minor knock over break, but also said he's been training in full. If Bogle is fit to start as a wing-back, I think he is too cheap and makes for a salary relief option as a second defender or utility. Luke Thomas ($3,100) is a similar option if you don't want to worry about Bogle's injury risk. Finally, Burnley's Vitinho ($3,200) spent some time last season as an attacking midfielder. He hasn't done much this season, but the price is right for an attacking minded full-back playing at home.
GOALKEEPER
Thomas Kaminski, (LUT vs. CRY, $3,900): In most slates, goalkeepers priced under $4,000 are serious underdogs against one of the top teams in the Premier League. Crystal Palace are only slight road favorites against Luton Town, so I think Kaminski is around $500 underpriced as the cheapest home goalkeeper. With no clear favorite goalkeeper to spend up for, I think he'll be popular in most formats. Otherwise, it's a play whoever you want situation at goalkeeper. I'll probably focus my exposures on the home underdogs in tournaments and hope I land on the one who randomly scores 20 points.
