This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I have to apologize to the readers. It's been a rough couple weeks for my picks and for the first time all season, I couldn't even muster a winner in Gameweek 32. The one bet I could've won, which I wrote about and didn't take because Everton looked terrible the prior match, easily hit. Rule No. 16 in betting is to never put too much into a prior match. (Don't ask me for the first 15 rules).
I also passed on betting unders for the Norwich match because they needed to push and it turned out they pushed and got their goal, which was all they needed. Whatever.
Record: 76-78-6. Up $222 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
Brentford are playing like they have most of the season except the addition of Christian Eriksen has coincided with them finally being able to hit the back of the net. I was on Brentford early in the season when they were fighting, but eventually not being able to score cost them more often than not. They've scored multiple goals in four of their last five and have won the last two meetings against Watford. In this same fixture last season (in the Championship), Brentford still finished with more expected goals even though they went down to 10 men in the 58th minute. Watford are a mystery on a week-to-week basis, but the form of Brentford has me betting the away side moneyline at +160.
Manchester United barely beat Norwich in the first meeting and needed a PK from Cristiano Ronaldo to take it. While they're at home for this one, I'm not sure how much that matters, recently losing to Atletico Madrid in addition to draws versus Watford and Leicester City. There's clearly problems within the club and that's showing on the pitch, as they're now a long shot to finish top four. Norwich are going to battle until the last minute under Dean Smith and that's why I like them +1.5 at +120. This will probably be a dumb bet in hindsight when the Red Devils take it 4-0, but I think the Canaries can keep this tight again and a one-goal loss wins this bet.
I don't often bet Leicester unders, but it's another short week for them because of UECL and this matchup doesn't scream goals. Three of Newcastle's last four matches have ended 1-0 and in all of those, their opponent failed to have more than one expected goal. Combine that with the injury to Ryan Fraser as well as a healthy Leicester back line for the first time this season and this has 1-0 result written all over it. I think Newcastle will keep this match where they want it most of the way and as long as Leicester don't find a breakthrough, the home side will hope to steal another win late. No matter, I'm taking under 2.5 goals at -110 odds.
There are only six Premier League matches this weekend and I hate writing up bets for games that are a week ahead, so I'll turn to the FA Cup to close out the article.
Crystal Palace have played well this season when their opponent lets them boss the match and take it to them, something that happens more often at Selhurst Park. That's not going to happen against Chelsea, which is why the Blues have already won this matchup 3-0 and 1-0 this season. While Palace have been noticeably worse away from home, Chelsea can take their game anywhere and I think they'll rebound from Champions League dismissal. I'm going with Chelsea -1 at +100 and hoping they win by two goals, and if they win by one, you get your money back.
As for the match more people care about, I'm taking the same bets I was on last week because you can get over 3.5 goals at +180. Both meetings this season have gone 2-2 and that even includes when both have kind of played it easy the final 10 or so minutes. As this is a knockout match, there's no reason to play things easy or play for penalties. When both teams push, goals are scored and I think you're getting some value at over 3.5. That said, I'd wait until kickoff because that number jumped to +210 for last weekend's meeting.
