This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Muhammad Mokaev (6-0-0, 1NC) v. Cody Durden (12-3-1)
Fight Analysis: Mokaev is making his long-awaited debut after demolishing all of his amateur and professional fights leading up to this. He is an extremely well-rounded fighter with lightning-quick hands, excellent movement, and phenomenal grappling. Durden earned his first UFC win in his previous contest, scoring a unanimous decision after 15 minutes. He is a solid all-around fighter with explosive power, quick takedowns, and good ground control.
DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to take place primarily on the mat. Durden was great in his last fight but is coming up against a far more superior grappler and likely has an issue keeping control. On the other hand, Mokaev is a 21-year-old prospect with top-five potential and should be able to make quick work here.
My Pick: Mokaev
Nate Wood (17-5-0) v. Vince Morales (11-6-0)
Fight Analysis: Wood last fought about a year and a half ago, losing a tough decision after 15 minutes. He is an excellent striker with plodding forward pressure, high volume, strong leg kicks, and a tremendous complimenting ground game. Morales impressed last time out, scoring an early first-round knockout two minutes in. He is a solid striker with decent volume, significant power, and good movement.
DFS Perspective: Morales has an outside shot if he can land a hard one, but other than that, Wood should dominate. Look for Wood to come out fast and snowball Morales to an early finish.
My Pick: Wood
Cory McKenna (6-1-0) v. Elise Reed (4-1-0)
Fight Analysis: McKenna came away with the W in her debut, winning unanimously about 14 months ago. She is a mixed martial artist with crisp technical striking, decent power, and solid grappling. Reed was dominated in her UFC debut, getting dropped nearly four minutes into the first round. She is a strong striker with nasty elbows and good footwork.
DFS Perspective: Reed does not look like she belongs in the UFC. She has deadly elbows and can touch fighters up in the clinch, but she may have difficulty getting there. McKenna should be better everywhere and control where this fight goes.
My Pick: McKenna
Jack Shore (15-0-0) v. Timur Valiev (18-2-0, 1NC)
Fight Analysis: Shore continued his impressive UFC start, earning a dominating unanimous decision last contest. He is a solid striker with fast hands, crisp striking, and a phenomenal takedown and grappling game. Valiev is riding a two-fight win streak after winning a majority decision in his last fight. He is a powerful high-volume striker with good movement and striking defense.
DFS Perspective: As impressive as Valiev has been, Shore has been better and has shown a better overall skill set. I expect Shore to be the quicker of the two and find an early takedown for ground control. A decision is likely between the two, and ground control time will add up.
My Pick: Shore
Nikita Krylov (27-8-0) v. Paul Craig (15-4-1)
Fight Analysis: After running five in a row, Krylov has lost four of six and needs a win in a big way. He is a solid all-around fighter with considerable power, excellent grappling, and a penchant for finishes with 26 in 27 wins. After a dominant knockout two minutes into his last fight, Craig is riding a three-fight winning streak, all by finish. He is an excellent, well-rounded fighter with significant power, crafty takedowns, and elite grappling.
DFS Perspective: This fight should be closer to a 50-50. Krylov is trending backward while Craig is rising. I think Craig is the stronger of the two and will be able to dictate where this fight goes until he eventually finishes it.
My Pick: Craig
Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0) v. Sergei Pavlovich (14-1-0)
Fight Analysis: Abdurakhimov has lost two in a row and appears to be approaching the end. He is a low-volume striker with ample power and decent striking defense. After dropping his debut, Pavlovich has rattled off two consecutive first-round knockout wins. He is a high-volume technical striker with immense power and solid footwork.
DFS Perspective: Someone is going down in this fight. Both guys are hittable, and both guys have power. Abdurakhimov is 40, and this may very well be his last fight. I will take the younger and faster Pavlovich to score another early first-round knockout.
My Pick: Pavlovich
Mike Grundy (12-3-0) v. Makwan Amirkhani (16-7-0)
Fight Analysis: Grundy will be making his fourth UFC fight and is currently sitting at 1-2, needing a win to stay relevant. He is a low-volume striker who prefers to score early takedowns and work control on the mat. Amirkhani is on a three-fight slide, losing after dominating first rounds with control time. He is a grapple-first fighter constantly on the hunt for takedowns and has virtually no striking but is quick on his feet.
DFS Perspective: I expect nearly all of this fight to take place on the mat. Grundy will have an edge in power and would have an advantage on the feet. Amirkhani should be the better grappler and have the edge on the mat, but his cardio and chin are questionable.
My Pick: Amirkhani
Jai Herbert (11-3-0) v. Ilia Topuria (11-0-0)
Fight Analysis: After dropping his first two UFC fights, Herbert secured his first win, earning a first-round knockout nearly three minutes in. He is a technical striker with considerable power and great footwork. Topuria ran his win streak to three after a dominant first-round knockout just before the bell in his previous fight. He is a tenacious well-rounded fighter with powerful hands, excellent movement, and elite grappling.
DFS Perspective: Herbert's only chance to win is via a knockout blow. Topuria should ragdoll Herbert early and often until he scores an early finish.
My Pick: Topuria
Molly McCann (11-4-0) v. Luana Carolina (8-2-0)
Fight Analysis: McCann snapped a two-fight losing streak with a unanimous decision victory over 15 minutes last time out. She is a high-volume striker with solid striking defense, great head movement, and decent takedowns. Carolina has gotten off to a good start in the UFC, winning three of four, and is currently riding a two-fight win streak. She is a technical striker with a crisp jab, strong leg kicks, and excellent takedown defense.
DFS Perspective: This fight should primarily take place on the feet. Both ladies have good volume, and it will come down to who pressures better and lands in combination.
My Pick: Carolina
Gunnar Nelson (17-5-1) v. Takashi Sato (16-5-0)
Fight Analysis: Nelson returns after two and a half years since his most recent fight due to injuries. He is a well-rounded fighter with fast hands, great movement, and excellent grappling. Sato evened his UFC record to 2-2 after suffering an early loss by arm triangle last time out. He is a powerful striker with nasty elbows, solid takedown defense, but poor striking defense.
DFS Perspective: Any fighter that has been out for over two years is hard to trust. Before the injuries, Nelson was leagues ahead of Sato, and he probably still is, but there is no telling how much rust there will be. Nelson should win, but do not be surprised if Sato looks good and possibly scores an upset knockout.
My Pick: Nelson
Paddy Pimblett (17-3-0) v. Kazula Vargas (12-4-0)
Fight Analysis: Pimblett impressed in his debut fight, recording a knockout late in the first round.
He is an excellent all-around fighter with powerful hands, fantastic movement, and solid takedowns and grappling. After dropping his first two UFC fights, Kazula got himself in the win column, winning unanimously over 15 minutes. He is a powerful striker with excellent dirty boxing, strong footwork, and great guillotines.
DFS Perspective: A striking match makes the odds for this fight much closer. If Pimblett takes the fight to the mat, he should dominate.
My Pick: Pimblett
Arnold Allen (17-1-0) v. Dan Hooker (21-11-0)
Fight Analysis: Allen earned his eighth straight win after his most recent fight, winning unanimously over 15 minutes. He is a well-rounded fighter with crisp technical striking, excellent movement, and solid grappling. Hooker looked like he was back on track after ending a two-fight skid with a unanimous decision win but got submitted halfway through round one in his most recent fight. He is a high-volume striker with good striking and takedown defense, crisp jabs, and great takedowns.
DFS Perspective: I am torn on this fight. Allen is a boring fighter, but he gets it done every time. Hooker looked like he might get back on track but fell right back off, albeit against a top-tier fighter. If we see the Hooker of old, he should dominate the striking, and his grappling is good enough to avoid being controlled on the mat. Allen will look to fight this at his pace, with Hooker pressuring forward to throw him off.
My Pick: Hooker
Alexander Volkov (34-9-0) v. Tom Aspinall (11-2-0)
Fight Analysis: Volkov won unanimously in his most recent fight, bringing his record to 4-2 over his last six, and is hungry for another. He is a rangy striker with high-volume, strong hands, powerful kicks, and solid takedown defense. Aspinall improved to 4-0 in UFC fights with another highlight finish, the fourth in a row. He is a bull-rushing striker with incredible pressure and power, formidable defense, and excellent takedowns and grappling.
DFS Perspective: Volkov is great when fighters stand and trade strikes with him. Aspinall is not going to do that. Instead, he will immediately pressure forward and look to drive Volkov into the fence or take him down to the mat. I expect this fight to last maybe a round or two, with Aspinall crushing his way to a fifth consecutive finish.
My Pick: Aspinall
FANDUEL SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6pts
Takedown = 6pts
Takedown Defense = 3pts
Knockdown = 12pts
Submission Attempt = 5pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100pts
2nd Round Win = 75pts
3rd Round Win = 50pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25pts
Decision Win = 20pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are "Distance Strike" or "Clinch/Ground Strikes" that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial amount of time.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less
