This article is part of our The Kids' Table series.
One of the main reasons I love following prospects so much is the mystery behind each of them. Sure, there are a few youngsters from each draft who are essentially no-brainers, but for the most part, it's a crapshoot. Scouts will feed you information saying that one player "oozes with potential due to his size" and another will tell you "his skating is beyond his years," but often, at the end of the day, none of that matters. What matters is what they do when they reach the NHL, when people stop caring about how many goals they scored in juniors or how many top players they shut down in college. Aside from maybe Major League Baseball, no sport's prospects are less predictable than the NHL's. And you know which subtype of prospect is even harder to pin down than your average young hockey player? Goalies.
We all know goaltenders are a weird breed of player. Most of them are goofy and quirky, with short memories -- necessary in order to survive their journey up the ranks. Statistics aren't a great barometer for goaltender success, but they still hold a decent amount of weight in determining who will make an impact at the NHL level. What will matter the most is the organization and the opportunity.
I bet a handful of young goalies spent their childhood eating lunch alone. Maybe it was because they didn't fit in. Maybe it was because they were the smelly kid (which probably has a
One of the main reasons I love following prospects so much is the mystery behind each of them. Sure, there are a few youngsters from each draft who are essentially no-brainers, but for the most part, it's a crapshoot. Scouts will feed you information saying that one player "oozes with potential due to his size" and another will tell you "his skating is beyond his years," but often, at the end of the day, none of that matters. What matters is what they do when they reach the NHL, when people stop caring about how many goals they scored in juniors or how many top players they shut down in college. Aside from maybe Major League Baseball, no sport's prospects are less predictable than the NHL's. And you know which subtype of prospect is even harder to pin down than your average young hockey player? Goalies.
We all know goaltenders are a weird breed of player. Most of them are goofy and quirky, with short memories -- necessary in order to survive their journey up the ranks. Statistics aren't a great barometer for goaltender success, but they still hold a decent amount of weight in determining who will make an impact at the NHL level. What will matter the most is the organization and the opportunity.
I bet a handful of young goalies spent their childhood eating lunch alone. Maybe it was because they didn't fit in. Maybe it was because they were the smelly kid (which probably has a lot to do with being a goalie). Regardless, all that loneliness did was light a fire inside them that wasn't evident until they stood between the pipes.
This week, we'll take a look at the top goaltending prospects in the AHL and try to predict when they'll make an impact at the next level.
Malcolm Subban, Bruins (AHL Providence Bruins)
Estimated NHL Arrival: 2016-17
The brother of Canadiens superstar P.K. Subban, Malcolm decided that the life of a goalie was more appealing than that of a defenseman (his other brother, Jordan, also took the blue-line route). Subban was drafted by the Bruins 24th overall in 2012 and has been on the cusp of the NHL since last season. He played 35 games for Providence in 2014-15, posting a 16-13-4 record, 2.44 GAA and .921 save percentage. For a 21-year-old in the AHL, those numbers are pretty impressive. Subban had a shaky NHL debut last season, allowing three goals on the first three shots of the second period. He was replaced by Tuukka Rask, but returned to net later, once the game was out of hand.
Subban is still very young and has plenty of time to develop behind Rask in the Bruins' goalie-friendly system. Chances are, he'll get a crack at the backup job again next training camp, and I expect he'll grab the reins on that No. 2 spot with another full season in the AHL under his belt. He has also been at the center of trade rumors in the past; if Boston were to deal Subban, his fantasy value would likely increase tenfold. For now, he remains one of the top goaltending prospects in the NHL, and while his situation isn't ideal, holding onto Subban in deep dynasty formats will certainly start to pay dividends, perhaps as soon as next season.
Zach Fucale, Canadiens (AHL St. John's Ice Caps)
Estimated NHL Arrival: 2018-19
The heir apparent to Carey Price in Montreal, Fucale has excelled at every level he's played at. He led the Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL to the 2015 Memorial Cup semifinal last year, posting a 2.56 GAA and .913 save percentage in 20 games. Fucale also won a gold medal with Canada at the World Junior Championship last winter, finishing with an impressive 1.20 GAA and .939 save percentage in five games. He's not a towering goaltender, listed at 6-foot-2, but what he lacks in size, he makes up for in mental toughness.
Fucale's situation is similar to Subban's, though he's a bit further away from breaking into the NHL. He's very young at the age of 20 and is stuck behind the best goaltender in the world in Price. What's interesting is the fact that Price's contract expires before the 2018-19 season, according to GeneralFanager.com. Now, I'm sure the Canadiens have every intention to resign their franchise goaltender, and a deal will likely get done prior to that expiration date, but god forbid Price gets injured, Montreal could simply let Fucale take over. It's not outlandish, considering the Habs did exactly that with Price and Jaroslav Halak not too long ago.
And, hey, he got the win in his AHL debut for St. John's, making 31 saves on 33 shots in a 5-2 win over Rochester last Saturday. It's a small sample size, but Fucale has a lot of promise and is a must-own goalie prospect in deep dynasty formats. Like Subban, Fucale's name has been brought up in trade discussions, so his situation could become much better, but my thinking is he'll stick with Montreal and be eased into the starting job.
Jon Gillies, Flames (AHL Stockton Heat)
Estimated NHL Arrival: 2016-17
Gillies signed his entry-level contract with the Flames in April after backstopping Providence College to the NCAA Championship, making 49 saves in a 4-3 upset victory over Jack Eichel and Boston University. During the regular season, Gillies had a stellar 2.01 GAA and .930 save percentage in 39 games. He's a big kid, coming in at 6-foot-5, but is very agile for his size. In his first two AHL games, Gillies is 1-1-0 with a 2.01 GAA, .909 save percentage and a shutout. Not bad for a kid coming right out of college.
What makes Gillies so appealing in terms of fantasy isn't his pedigree or track record, it's his situation. The Flames' goalie tandem of Jonas Hiller and Karri Ramo has been less than inspiring so far this season and didn't help their cause much this past postseason either. Hiller and Ramo will both be unrestricted free agents in 2016, so if Gillies shows he can handle himself as a rookie in the AHL, chances are he'll get a shot at the starting job heading into next season. I see Gillies on the same trajectory as Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick. He may not have two Stanley Cup Championships under his belt by the time he's 28, but Calgary should have no trouble contending with their young core for many years to come, and Gillies may be the missing piece of the puzzle.
Anthony Stolarz, Flyers (AHL Lehigh Valley Phantoms)
Estimated NHL Arrival: 2017-18
I've spent the majority of my life in north and central New Jersey, so I've got to show some love for the kid from Edison. Stolarz, 21, has bounced around a lot in his development, spending a year at the University of Nebraska-Omaha and two with the London Knights in the OHL before making the jump to the AHL last season. He struggled in his first full season with Lehigh Valley, posting a 9-13-4 record with a 3.28 GAA and .905 save percentage. There will always be growing pains with a young goaltender, which is why patience is key. In his first start of 2015-16, Stolarz made 19 saves on 20 shots in a 4-1 win against the Springfield Falcons last Friday, which is a good start.
It's safe to say the Flyers haven't had a legit franchise goaltender since Ron Hextall retired. Steve Mason played well at times last season, but has dealt with injuries and really hasn't lived up to his potential. Mason and backup Michal Neuvirth are only signed through 2016-17, so Stolarz should get a crack at the starting job after three full seasons in the AHL. He's not an elite goalie prospect, but has shown a lot of resilience throughout his career and will definitely get a chance to become the Flyers' next franchise netminder.
Kristers Gudlevskis, Lightning (AHL Syracuse Crunch)
Estimated NHL Arrival: 2016-17
Many of you may recognize this name from the 2014 Winter Olympics, when he made 55 saves for Latvia against the heavily favored squad from Canada. Gudlevskis has remained relatively dormant since that game, having made just three appearances for the Lightning in 2013-14. Aside from his Olympic performance, Gudlevskis has found success in the AHL. He went 25-14-4 with a 2.81 GAA and .900 save percentage last season, and is off to a 2-0-0 start in this campaign.
Right now, Ben Bishop is locked into the starting job for Tampa Bay. Behind him right now is Kevin Poulin, but only because Andrei Vasilevskiy is on injured reserve. Bishop is an unrestricted free agent in 2017-18 and has dealt with injuries in the past. Poulin is a career backup and Vasilevskiy has shown a ton of promise, but is still just 21 years old. The opportunity will be there for Gudlevskis in a year or two, and if the injuries pile up, he could even see some NHL action this season. The Lightning may also decide to trade from their depth in net, which would certainly benefit Gudlevskis.
Other AHL Goalies to Monitor
Eric Comrie and Connor Hellebuyck, Jets (AHL Manitoba Moose)
Both have plenty of potential, but have had up-and-down careers. Moreover, Michael Hutchinson figures to take over for Ondrej Pavelec, so these two will have to duke it out for the backup spot.
John Gibson, Ducks (AHL San Diego Gulls)
Gibson isn't really a prospect in my eyes, considering he started 25 games for the Ducks in 2014-15, including the postseason. He's still young at the age of 23, but I worry about how Anaheim has handled his development thus far.
Tristan Jarry, Penguins (AHL Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Penguins)
The Penguins' second-round pick in 2013, Jarry is just 20 years and is in his first season in the AHL. He had an impressive career with the Edmonton Oil Kings of the WHL and could take over for Marc-Andre Fleury one day. He also made 35 saves on 36 shots for a win in his season debut Sunday against the Bridgeport Sound Tigers, the Isles' farm team, who entered the game undefeated.
