Prospects Analysis: 2015 World Junior Championship Preview

The 2015 World Junior Hockey Championship begins Dec. 26 in Toronto and Montreal. Several years ago, I gave up predicting which team would win this thing on an annual basis. It's generally not the most talented team that wins the gold medal, but rather the team who develops the best chemistry over such a short period of time. Guessing which group of kids will mesh together the best over a two-week period is simply that: a guess. Instead, I will break down each of the medal favorites by position in hopes of shedding some light as to what will happen in what many consider to be the greatest hockey tournament in the world. We will start with the Canadian hosts.

Canada

Goalies: Over the past five years, the goaltending for Canada has been abysmal. I'm not terribly confident it will improve this year. Zach Fucale (Montreal, second round, 2013) was on the team last season but struggled mightily, and he hasn't been any good thus far during the QMJHL season (in fact, he was traded from Halifax to Quebec last week). Eric Comrie (Winnipeg, second round, 2013) has had a decent season in the WHL, but he seems to be viewed as the clear backup considering that Fucale played in the tournament last year. Fucale is the better long-term NHL prospect, but I actually have more confidence in Comrie right now. Either way, the goalie position could once again be Team Canada's undoing.

Defense: The way I see it, Canada's defense has two major problems. The first is that their projected top four defensemen, Josh Morrissey (Winnipeg, first round, 2013), Madison Bowey (Washington, second round, 2013), Shea Theodore (Anaheim, first round, 2013) and Darnell Nurse (Edmonton, first round, 2013) are all further along in their offensive development than their defensive development. Samuel Morin (Philadelphia, first round, 2013) is a monster at 6-foot-7 and 225 pounds, but he is still learning how to use his huge frame properly. Joe Hicketts (Detroit, undrafted) is only 5-foot-8 and 185 pounds. The one true defensive-minded blueliner on the Canadian roster is Dillon Heatherington (Columbus, second round, 2013) and as things stand right now, he is slated to be their seventh defenseman. This is a group that has the potential to struggle in their own zone. The other issue is that Bowey is the only right-handed shot amongst the group. Some defenders are better at playing one side over the other. That being said, I'd feel far more confident about an NHL veteran making the switch as opposed to a 19-year-old kid on the big stage.

Forwards: All eyes, and rightfully so, will be on Connor McDavid (2015 draft eligible). McDavid has been out since Nov. 11 with a hand injury that he suffered during a fight in OHL action, but he's been cleared to play and he will be in Canada's lineup for the first game. He's going to get a ton of ice time and will need to have a big tournament for Canada to succeed. He is expected to be on a line with Nicolas Petan (Winnipeg, second round, 2013). While McDavid is Canada's best player, their most important line will be the trio of Anthony Duclair (New York Rangers, third round, 2013), Sam Reinhart (Buffalo, first round, 2014) and Max Domi (Arizona, first round, 2013). The group has been together since the start of Canada's training camp, and they have developed instant chemistry. Guys like Nick Ritchie (Anaheim, first round, 2014), Jake Virtanen (Vancouver, first round, 2014) and Robby Fabbri (St. Louis, first round, 2014) have all been monster scorers at the junior level, but it will be interesting to see how they fare in what figures to be a different role and possibly limited ice time. Canada got a huge surprise boost when the Ottawa Senators decided to release Curtis Lazar (first round, 2013) from their NHL roster and play in the tournament. Lazar is very responsible defensively and will help the Canadian team in all three zones. Guys like Nick Paul (Ottawa, fourth round, 2013), Brayden Point (Tampa Bay, third round, 2014) and Lawson Crouse (2015 draft eligible) all bring grit and the ability to chip in offensively. The one major decision that proved divisive was carrying Frederik Gauthier (Toronto, first round, 2013) on the team. Gauthier was on the team last year, but he offers virtually nothing offensively, and despite the fact he's 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, he doesn't use his size properly. Canada is counting on him being a solid penalty killer and faceoff man, but I think the team would have been far better off carrying a player with more offensive ability, such as Michael Dal Colle (New York Islanders, first round, 2014).

United States

Goalies: Generally, when a coach says he has no idea who his starting goalie is going to be, he isn't telling the truth. In this case, the United States legitimately has no idea who their number one man is. Thatcher Demko (Vancouver, second round, 2014) was the team's backup last year, but he's had a mediocre season sophomore season at Boston College and hasn't been sharp lately. Alex Nedeljkovic (Carolina, second round, 2014) has had a dreadful year for OHL Plymouth, and I have little confidence in his ability to turn his game around in such a big tournament. Brandon Halverson (New York Rangers, second round, 2014) has actually been playing the best of the three goalies and has been hot lately. But he doesn't have any international experience and sometimes coaches (for no good reason) take that into consideration. For what it's worth, Halverson started Team USA's first exhibition game. The goaltending situation really could go any of three ways at this point.

Defense: The Team USA brass patiently waits to see if Steve Santini (New Jersey, second round, 2013) will be ready to go. Santini suffered a wrist injury while with Boston College, and though he was originally projected to miss the tournament, he has recovered quicker than expected and now has a chance to play. Santini, who is mostly a stay-at-home defenseman, played in the tournament last year, as did Ian McCoshen (Florida, second round, 2013), who is cut from a similar cloth. The United States is projected to have two 2015 draft-eligible blueliners on the roster. Noah Hanifin, who plays at Boston College, is expected to be a top-five pick in the upcoming draft, and Zach Werenski, who attends the University of Michigan, is expected to be a mid-first round pick. The USA defense also has Anthony DeAngelo (Tampa Bay, first round, 2014), who has had several off-ice issues, but offers a dynamic element from the back end that no one else on the team brings.

Forwards: USA management deserves credit for taking the best players, regardless of age. Their forward group is extremely young, but extremely talented. All eyes will be on Jack Eichel (2015 draft eligible). Eichel is Team USA's answer to McDavid, and in any other year, would be a lock to be the number one pick in the draft. He has had a dominant freshman season at Boston University and will be playing in the tournament for the second time. Auston Matthews, who plays for the U.S. National Development Team, is projected to be the top pick in the 2016 draft, and should have a major role despite the fact he's just 17 years old. Team USA has a great combination of skilled forwards, like Sonny Milano (Columbus, first round, 2014), Nick Schmaltz (Chicago, first round, 2014) and Jeremy Bracco (2015 draft eligible), power forwards like Alex Tuch (Minnesota, first round, 2014) and Hudson Fasching (Buffalo, fourth round, 2013) and responsible, hard-working defensive players like J.T. Compher (Buffalo, second round, 2012) and Dylan Larkin (Detroit, first round, 2014). It's a good-looking group.

Russia

Goalies: Russia may not have a big name in goal, but I think they have the best goaltending situation of any team in the tournament. Ilya Sorkin (New York Islanders, third round, 2014) is playing for Novokuznetsk in the KHL as a 19-year-old. He stopped 52 of 53 shots against Canada in Russia's first exhibition game. Igor Shesterkin (New York Rangers, fourth round, 2014) was dominant in the Subway CHL-Russia Super Series and has played very well in the St. Petersburg (KHL) system this year. Both dropped in the draft because there is concern over the fact that both goalies may never come over to play in North America. They don't bring the name recognition in goal that Andrei Vasilevskiy did for the Russians over the last couple of years, but they're both solid netminders.

Defense: Russia's goaltending and forward groups are impressive. Their defensive corps is not. A couple of weeks ago, it appeared as if the Sabres would release Nikita Zadorov to play in the tournament. Then they suffered a couple of injures and as a result, Zadorov is now playing over 20 minutes a night in the NHL and likely not going anywhere. It's a crushing blow to the Russians. Zadorov would have been their number one defenseman by a mile and would have played upwards of half the game for them. That leaves Ivan Provorov (who is projected to be a mid-first round pick in the 2015 draft), who has 10 goals and 37 points in 35 games in his first season in North America with WHL Brandon, along with Rinat Valiev (Toronto, third round, 2014), who has had a very good season for WHL Kootenay, as the Russians' top two defensemen. The rest of the group is extremely uninspiring. It could be a major detriment to the Russian's gold medal hopes.

Forwards: To no one's surprise, the Russian forward group is full of extremely skilled players and short on grinders. Guys like Pavel Buchnevich (New York Rangers, third round, 2013), Vladislav Kamenev (Nashville, second round, 2014) and Nikolai Goldobin (San Jose, first round, 2014) all bring game-changing type skill levels to the table. Valentin Zykov (Los Angeles, second round, 2013) gives Russia a player who does his best work in front of the opposition's net and a pair of undrafted and undersized players, Sergei Tolchinsky (Carolina) and Vladimir Tkachev (who the Oilers tried to sign, only to have the NHL rule that he was still draft eligible) give the Russians two more players who are dynamic in open space. The key to the Russian forward group may be Ivan Barbashev (St. Louis, second round, 2014). Barbashev plays a North American-type game. He enjoys the physical aspect of the game and is responsible in his own zone. In other words, he's what most of his Russian teammates are not. He won't have to be a big scorer on this team, and it sets up as a situation in which he can thrive.

Sweden

Goalies: Sweden's two top goalies are Jonas Johansson (Buffalo, third round, 2014) and Linus Soderstrom (New York Islanders, fourth round, 2014). Johansson is playing in Sweden's top league (getting little playing time and struggling), while Soderstrom is playing in Sweden's second division (and also getting little playing time). Both are average prospects and should give Sweden solid goaltending. The bigger concern is that neither of them is playing all that much hockey thus far in 2014.

Defense: The Swedish defense got a boost when the Flyers announced they released Robert Hagg (second round, 2013) from their AHL affiliate in Lehigh Valley to participate in the tournament. It will be Hagg's third appearance in the tournament. Along with Hagg, all eyes will be on 17-year-old Oliver Kylington who is a potential top-five selection in the 2015 draft. Sweden's defense contains a glut of other NHL prospects, including Julius Bergman (San Jose, second round, 2014), Andreas Englund (Ottawa, second round, 2014), William Lagesson (Edmonton, fourth round, 2014) and Robin Norell (Chicago, fourth round, 2013). Despite the fact the group doesn't have much name recognition beyond Hagg and Kylington, it's an underrated collection of talent.

Forwards: The Capitals refused to release Andre Burakovsky (which I think is a mistake considering they just sent him to the AHL), but Sweden is going to run out an impressive group of forwards, led by their top offensive weapon, William Nylander (Toronto, first round, 2014). Nylander is a dynamic player who has the ability to take over a game by himself. Sweden will rely on Lucas Wallmark (Carolina, fourth round, 2014), Anton Karlsson (Arizona, third round, 2014) and Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles, first round, 2014) to help Nylander shoulder the offensive load. No one is probably looking forward to the tournament more than Jacob De La Rose (Montreal, second round, 2013). De La Rose has had a miserable first season in North America with just five points in 27 games for AHL Hamilton, but the Habs made the decision to allow him to play in the tournament. It comes at a good time for De La Rose. He brings experience to the Swedish roster, he is solid in his own zone, and it will allow him to find his game again. His prospect status had dipped since the start of the season, but there's hope for the future.

Finland

Goalies: Juuse Saros (Nashville, fourth round, 2013) stood on his head to help lead Finland to the gold medal last year, and he's back for more. Saros was a virtual unknown at this time last year, but he stole several games for Finland in last year's tournament, including the gold medal game against Sweden. His backup will be Ville Husso (St. Louis, fourth round, 2014).

Defense: As of this writing, the Dallas Stars had yet to decide if they would release Julius Honka (first round, 2014) from their AHL team to participate in the tournament. For their own sake, Finland better hope the answer is yes. Outside of Honka, the only other decent NHL prospect on the Finnish blueline is Alex Lintuniemi (Los Angeles, second round, 2014), who is in his second OHL season with Ottawa. It's a very young group and considerably thinner than it has been in the last few years.

Forwards: Kasperi Kapanen (Pittsburgh, first round, 2014) was injured prior to last year's tournament and could not play, but he's healthy this time around,and Finland is going to need him to be their best player. Kapanen will get some help from Artturi Lehkonen (Montreal, second round, 2013), but it isn't a very deep offensive group. Finland's top 2015 draft eligible prospect is Mikko Rantanen, who has a chance to be an early-to-mid first round pick. The Finns are going to need someone like Rantanen to step up and have a big tournament, because the depth just doesn't appear to be there. That being said, as we have seen countless times at both the junior and Olympic level, no country plays better as a team than Finland. It led them to the gold medal last year and it could most definitely happen again.

Others To Watch

Czech Republic
Defense: Jan Kostalek (Winnipeg, fourth round, 2013), Dominik Masin (Tampa Bay, second round, 2014)
Forwards: Vaclav Karabacek (Buffalo, second round, 2014), David Pastrnak (Boston, first round, 2014), Jakub Vrana (Washington, first round, 2014), Pavel Zacha (2015 draft eligible)

Denmark
Forwards: Nikolaj Ehlers (Winnipeg, first round, 2014), Oliver Bjorkstrand (Columbus, third round, 2013)

Slovakia
Forwards: Martin Reway (Montreal, fourth round, 2013)

Switzerland
Defense: Mirco Mueller (San Jose, first round, 2013),
Forwards: Kevin Fiala (Nashville, first round, 2014), Noah Rod (San Jose, second round, 2014)