NHL Barometer: Risers and Fallers

This week's article includes a buy low candidate in Anaheim, Nashville's top gun rolling, a pair of Coyotes howling, McDavid out 1-2 weeks and a top d-man down the pecking order in Ottawa. 

First Liners (Risers)

Elias Lindholm, C, CGY – Lindholm took a step back last season, notching 22 goals and 42 assists after posting 42 and 40 the prior season. He's doing his best to put that so-so campaign behind him, notching at least one point in four of Calgary's six games so far. Lindholm is in the final season of the six-year, $29.1 million contract he signed with the Flames in July of 2018 after coming over in a trade from the Hurricanes. If Calgary struggles, Lindholm is a candidate to be dealt, but until then, he'll fill the role as the team's top-line center. 

Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, OTT – Tarasenko signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the Senators in the hopes of landing another long-term deal with the cap rising this upcoming offseason. The Tank has settled in nicely north of the border, notching a pair of goals and four assists his first four contests with Ottawa. Tarasenko is skating on the second line as well as the second-unit power-play on an Ottawa team that has several offensive weapons. He has a good chance to post at least 60 points this year. 

Filip Forsberg, RW, NAS – Forsberg lived up to his potential in 2021-22, posting 42 goals and as many assists to set career-highs in both categories. He was on his way to another excellent season in 2022-23 with 19 markers and 23 helpers in 50 games before an upper-body injury ended his campaign in mid-February. Forsberg is off to another strong start with a goal and four assists as the driver of the Predators' attack. Another season of at least 60 points, health permitting, should certainly be reachable for Forsberg. 

Nick Paul, LW, TB – Paul is seeing close to the same amount of ice time he received in the prior three seasons, just over 16 minutes a game. The difference is he's averaging 3:44 on the man-advantage, which is more than he received combined in his career. Paul is making the most of that opportunity, notching all three of his goals on the season on the power play and four of his five points. Relying just on this is likely unsustainable, but his value will remain if he continues to see first-line power-play deployment. 

Luke Hughes, D, NJ – Hughes, drafted fourth overall in 2021, made his season debut with the Devils last season after completing his sophomore season at the University of Michigan, where he posted 10 goals and 48 points in 39 games. Coach Lindy Ruff is currently sheltering Hughes defensively on the third line, but he is manning the point on the first-line power play. Hughes notched his first of the season on the man-advantage Friday and should be a more than solid source of point production this season.

Sean Durzi, D, AZ – Durzi was dealt to Arizona this off-season by Los Angeles. That move was largely cap-driven, with the change of scenery a boon for Durzi's fantasy potential. Durzi is being used on the first-line defensive pairing as well as on the point of the first power-play unit. That deployment has resulted in almost four minutes more of ice time per game, all of which have come on the man-advantage. Durzi, who tallied 38 points last season, already has four points in five games for the Coyotes. 

Karel Vejmelka, G, AZ – Those who read this column regularly know that I prefer not to have two players from the same team as either Risers of Fallers. Occasionally, I make an exception, and this week is one of them due to the performance of Vejmelka. Coming into the season, many thought Arizona would be better than they have been the past several seasons due to the infusion of talent. The performance of Vejmelka also has played a major role in the Coyotes' 3-2-0 start, as he's stopped 98 of the 103 shots he's seen in his three starts.

Adin Hill, G, LV – Hill backstopped the Golden Knights to a Stanley Cup championship but was viewed by many as a question mark coming into the season. The prevailing view might not have that he was a fluke, but several felt that Logan Thompson would be the starter before too long. Hill, who signed a two-year, $9.8 million contract extension with Las Vegas in June, is doing his best to prove that he deserves the starting job. He is 4-0-0 with a 1.73 goals-against average and a .934 save percentage over his first three starts.           

Others include Brock Nelson, Sean Couturier, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jesper Bratt, Artemi Panarin, Phil Di Giuseppe, Alex DeBrincat, Jake Sanderson, Matthew Knies, Seth Jones, Pavel Mintyukov, Anton Forsberg, Jordan Binnington, Carter Hart and Thatcher Demko.

Buy Low

Trevor Zegras, C, ANA – It's highly doubtful that an owner in your league will deal Zegras at a discount, but the longer his slow start continues, the greater the possibility that occurs. Zegras was not in camp as he and the Ducks were in a contract stalemate. He inked a three-year, $17.25 million contract with Anaheim on October 2, giving him minimal time to get in shape and re-establish chemistry with the team. Zegras had 61 and 65 points his first two full seasons and should settle in that range, though he may scuffle a bit more until he settles in. 

Training Room (Injuries)

Sam Bennett, LW, FLA – Bennett has yet to play this season as he remains sidelined with a lower-body injury. He was injured during the preseason, and the hope was that Bennett would miss just the first two weeks of the season and then return to action. That timeframe still remains in play, though we've yet to see any reports of him practicing or being close to active duty. The 27-year-old Bennett had 16 goals, 24 assists, 193 shots on net and 150 hits in 63 games last season, his second full year in Florida.

Others include Connor McDavid (upper body, injured Saturday, out 1-2 weeks), Josh Norris (shoulder, returned to action with a pair of goals last Wednesday), Andre Burakovsky (upper body, likely collarbone, injured Saturday, will miss 6-8 weeks), Sebastian Aho (upper body, missed third straight game Saturday), Patrik Laine (upper body, injured Friday, placed on IR on Monday), Gabriel Vilardi (sprained MCL, out 4-6 weeks), Pavel Buchnevich (upper body, injured 10/14, could return Tuesday), Jamie Drysdale (lower body, missed last three games, moved to injured reserve Monday), Devon Levi (lower body, missed last two games, will miss at least one more) and Frederik Andersen (upper body, missed second straight game Saturday). 

Fourth Liners/Press Boxers (Fallers) 

This article is adapted from the NHL Barometer, available at RotoWire. All these players are trending downwards, and most of them make good cuts in most leagues, though they may merely be bench players or lineup deadwood in deeper leagues. This week's list consists of a a former #1 center down in the pecking order, a breakout candidate from last year in the press box and a Cali netminder scuffling. 

Morgan Frost, C, PHI – Frost was a healthy scratch Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday by the Flyers. Riding the pine is a far cry from what was expected by Frost, who set career highs last season in all major categories (19 goals, 27 assists, 46 points, 155 shots on goal, five power-play points, 16:21 average time on ice). This may just be coach John Tortorella's way of lighting a fire under Frost, who was scoreless his first two games of the season. I wouldn't drop Frost in deeper leagues, but pay attention to how he's deployed when he finally gets back in the lineup. 

Jack Roslovic, LW, CLM – Roslovic notched his first point of the season Friday. That helper looks like it might be the spark Roslovic needed, as he tallied the overtime winner and was dominant for Columbus on Saturday. Drafted 25th overall in 2015, Roslovic managed a career-high 33 assists among 44 total points last season, but he has an uphill battle this time around as a bottom-six forward. His line placement coupled with the need to adapt to new coach Pascal Vincent's system limit his upside scoring potential. Roslovic should only be rostered in deeper leagues.

John Gibson, G, ANA – Through five games for Anaheim this season, Gibson and Lukas Dostal have basically alternated starts. Normally, that wouldn't be a major story, but Gibson normally is a workhorse between the pipes for the Ducks. Part of the reason for this is the back-to-back games this past Saturday and Sunday. That said, Dostal could be the future in net for the team while Gibson has struggled the past few seasons, and if he didn't have four years left on the eight-year, $51.2 million contract extension he signed with the Ducks in August of 2018, he would already be elsewhere. View Gibson as a third goalie at best in most leagues unless he lands on a squad with better team defense.

Others include Matty Beniers (slow start), Tyler Seguin, Yanni Gourde, Anthony Duclair, Bowen Byram, John Klingberg (producing offensively but defensive metrics are brutal), Darcy Kuemper and Jack Campbell. 

Sell High

Thomas Chabot, D, OTT – Chabot notched 55 points his second full season in the NHL but has yet to hit that mark again. The COVID-shortened season of 2020-21 was his best chance to match that total, as he had 31 points in 49 games. Injuries have impacted Chabot's games played the last two seasons, though that isn't why he's a sell high. With Jakob Chychrun in Ottawa and Jake Sanderson taking a major step forward, Chabot has been moved down to the second power-play unit, likely adversely impacting his production. Find someone who can be sold on big names and reap the benefits.