NHL Barometer: Playoff Preview

Here is the 2015 playoff preview, based on a final four of Rangers-Lightning and Blues-Flames, followed by a final matchup of Rangers-Blues, with the Rangers taking home the Stanley Cup. I will group the first-round match-ups by the divisional brackets, making it easier to show the conference semi-finals.

What we do know heading into the playoffs is that there will be a new champion, as last year's Cup winner, Los Angeles, failed to make the playoffs, as did the Presidents' Trophy winner, Boston. In addition, parity reins, as out from last year are Philadelphia, Boston and Columbus from the East and LA, Colorado, San Jose and Dallas from the West. Into the playoffs are the Islanders, Capitals and Senators from the East and the Canucks, Flames, Jets and Predators from the West.

My rankings, which can be found here, are based on games played and expected points per game, PPP, +/- and PIMs by skaters, and wins/shutouts by goalies. If your quarters, semis and finals differ, adjust rankings accordingly.

Quarterfinals
 
EAST


Rangers defeat Penguins in six games
(New York overcame an injury that sidelined Henrik Lundqvist for two months to still win the Metro division, buffeted by the brilliant play of Cam Talbot. While winning the division, they set franchise records for wins (53) and points (113), breaking the marks set in 1993-94 Stanley Cup championship season, spurred by going 42-12-3 over the final four months of the season. New York enters the postseason as the top seed in the East and NHL. Pittsburgh, despite their 2-0 win over Buffalo on Saturday to get into the playoffs, went 4-9-2 their final 15, 3-5-2 in their last 10 and 2-4-1 in their last seven games. These two teams met last year in the division finals, with the Rangers rallying from a 3-1 deficit to beat Pittsburgh, aided by the emotional lift of the play of Martin St. Louis following the passing of his mother, France.

For New York, who went 3-0-1 against Pittsburgh during the season, it's been balanced offense led by Rick Nash's 42 goals, though we all know he will be judged on what he does during the playoffs. Head coach Alain Vigneault loves rolling for lines, which was an issue early in the season, but the growth of Kevin Hayes coupled with solid play down the stretch of J.T. Miller has enabled AV to do so. The blue line should welcome back Marc Staal (sore foot), who missed the last two games of the season, and Kevin Klein, who has been out since March 14 with a fractured left arm. The return of those two supports a deep defensive crew, which is believed by many to be the best in the league. Saturday was the 15th consecutive game that the Penguins scored three goals or fewer. Three key players are in the midst of major slumps: Evgeni Malkin is without a goal in 10 games, while David Perron has failed to light the lamp for 12 games and Chris Kunitz has one tally in his past 21. Sidney Crosby is still Sidney Crosby and Marc-Andre Fleury tied Carey Price for most shutouts in the league with 10, but their blue line will likely prove to be their demise.

Kris Letang is definitely out with a concussion, while Olli Maatta is sidelined following January shoulder surgery. In addition, Christian Ehrhoff is questionable with his concussion, leaving the Pittsburgh defense to probably include Ben Lovejoy, Ian Cole and Rob Scuderi, which should allow the Rangers to use their speed and counter-attack to create a myriad of chances and odd-man breaks to cruise to an easier than expected win. Even if Derrick Pouliot (upper body) and Ehrhoff return, and Pittsburgh uses Kasperi Kapanen, the Rangers should still win the series.


Capitals defeat Islanders in seven games
The Capitals rebounded from missing the playoffs a year ago to finish second in the Metropolitan division, with the hiring of head coach Barry Trotz paying immediate dividends. The Islanders led the division a good portion of the season, before fading after the All-Star break and holding onto a spot. The two teams last met in the 1993 Patrick division semifinals, a series marred by the hit Dale Hunter put on Pierre Turgeon in Game 6. Washington still begins and ends with Alexander Ovechkin, who won the Rocket Richard Trophy with 53 goals, but this season, Braden Holtby, aided by goaltending coach Mitch Korn and Trotz, took a major step forward. Holtby started 73 games, winning a career-high 41 games while finishing top-10 in the league in goals-against average and save percentage. He went 12-4-1 with a .916 save percentage and three shutouts in 18 games in March and April.

Washington is also supported by an elite center in Nicklas Backstrom, who led the league with 60 assists and won more than 53 percent of his draws. Beyond those two, the Capitals have mixed-and-matched on the top two lines, with Marcus Johansson seeing most of the time on that line and the second made up of Troy Brouwer-Eric-Fehr-Joel Ward, with Evgeni Kuznetsov growing as the year continued. On D, while Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik have not met their lofty salaries, they have stabilized the blue line. John Carlson has become the team's dominant blue-liner, putting up career-best numbers in goals and points playing on the top pair with Orpik, while Mike Green has taken a step back behind Karl Alzner but still put up 45 points. For the Islanders, John Tavares is the marquee name and JT finished just behind Jamie Benn for the Art Ross Trophy. The line of Tavares with Anders Lee and Josh Bailey was dominant while Kyle Okposo was out with a detached retina, but head coach Jack Capuano elected to switch the pairings, adversely impacting the team's offense. Lee slumped until this past week while Okposo took a while to get going, but he seems to be back on the beam. Ryan Strome and Brock Nelson were also hot early, but hit a wall, and the Islanders need to have Frans Nielsen, who missed the last two games, back in the lineup, especially for his special teams play. One key match up may be the fourth line of Matt Martin-Casey Ciekas-Cal Clutterbuck, who are usually effective grinding down opponents, and will be needed against the Ovechkin line.

On defense, the left leg injury Travis Hamonic suffered Friday could sideline him for the playoffs. If that happens, as good as Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy are along with Thomas Hickey, having to go without Hamonic and play Brian Strait, Lubomir Visnovsky and Calvin de Haan may prove too much. Between the pipes, Jaroslav Halak was brilliant early and faded a bit late, but he still finished with 38 wins, a 2.43 goals-against average (GAA) and .914 save percentage. The slightly better defense, especially if Hamonic is out, special teams and Holtby will be just enough to push Washington forward to the next round.


Canadiens defeat Senators in seven games
(Ottawa was 14 points out of a playoff spot and seemingly playing out the string on Feb. 10. To the rescue came Andrew Hammond, aka the Hamburglar, who went 20-1-2 with a 1.79 GAA and .941 save percentage to key a 23-4-4 burst, carrying the Senators to a playoff berth as the seventh seed. Montreal is led by their own stud netminder, Carey Price, who is likely the favorite for the Vezina Trophy, and he'll get some Hart Trophy consideration, after winning a franchise-record 44 games with a league-leading 1.96 GAA and .933 save percentage. During this hot streak, Ottawa beat Montreal handily three times, which should enhance their already high confidence level coming into the playoffs.

For Montreal, the key unknown is the health of Max Pacioretty, who missed the last two games with a concussion suffered April 5 against Florida. Pacioretty skated for 30 minutes Saturday but it's unknown if the 37-goal scorer will be able to play come Wednesday night. If not, Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher, along with Tomas Plekanec and David Desharnais, will need to step up and produce even more. Even if Pacioretty plays, Ottawa's clear advantage may be up front. Kyle Turris got off to a slow start but has really picked it up lately, aided by Mark Stone, who amazingly had 50 of his 64 points at even strength. When you add in a now-healthy Clarke MacArthur at left wing on the top line and Mika Zibanejad at center, those four have made up for the slumping Bobby Ryan and Mike Hoffman, despite the latter scoring 27 goals. The key line though may be Erik Condra-Jean-Gabriel Pageau-Curtis Lazar trio, who likely will match up against the Canadiens' top line.

On defense, everyone knows P.K. Subban and Erik Karlsson, but it will be the play of Andrei Markov, Alexei Emelin-Jeff Petry and Nathan Beaulieu-Tom Gilbert versus Marc Methot, Patrick Wiercioch-Cody Ceci and Marc Borowiecki-Eric Gryba that decides this round. On paper, Price has the edge between the pipes, but that is offset by the ridiculous roll Hammond is on. Montreal has better depth after the first pairing, which along the possible return of Pacioretty gives Montreal a slight advantage over an Ottawa team riding a hot streak.


Lightning defeat Red Wings in six games
Unlike last season, Tampa enters the playoffs with Ben Bishop healthy. That in itself is a huge boost for the Lightning, who fell to Montreal last year while rotating netminders. While the back-story is Steve Yzerman facing his former team, that is solely just a nice sideline to the series. Tampa just missed winning the division, while Detroit slumped down the stretch but had just enough to finish ahead of Ottawa for third in the division, as well as Boston for a playoff spot.

Tampa seems to have it all. Up front, Steven Stamkos is the big name, but his line is not even remotely close to the best on the team. Ondrej Palat-Tyler Johnson-Nikita Kucherov have all taken major steps forward and by far been the best trio for Tampa this season. Ryan Callahan has been his usual solid self with 54 points in 77 games, and while it took Jonathan Drouin a while to settle in, he now seems ensconced on the left of Stamkos. A major disappointment has been Valtteri Filppula, who may get a boost facing his former team, and a sleeper to keep in mind in Vladimir Namestnikov, who had nine points in March but was scoreless in April. Brian Boyle was signed for his playoff prowess, and look for his line to be matched against one of the Detroit scoring ones.

For Detroit, it still begins and ends with Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, though Detroit has lots of other weapons. Tomas Tatar built off his fine rookie season with 29 goals and 56 points, while Gustav Nyqvist had 27 and 54. Justin Abdelkader also improved from last year to tally a surprising 23 goals, though keep an eye on his health as he has a hand injury, while Riley Sheahan has shown the ability to play second or third-line center. The loss of Erik Cole to a spinal contusion robs a big body and proven playoff player, putting additional pressure of the aforementioned six forwards. On defense, Tampa added Anton Stralman and Jason Garrison this past offseason, though Garrison will miss the opening round with an upper-body injury, then imported Braydon Coburn at the trade deadline, though a foot injury will keep Coburn out at least for Game 1. Despite those injuries, the Lightning still have Victor Hedman and a now healthy Matt Carle, but are reliant on lesser talents such as Mark Barberio, Nikita Nesterov and Luke Witkowski on the blueline. If Andrej Sustr (upper body) and Coburn miss the whole first round, it could tip the scales towards Detroit. The Red Wings made one of the best moves at the deadline, adding Marek Zidlicky from New Jersey for a third-rounder, giving them a power-play point man to go along with Niklas Kronwall. Due to all the injures in Tampa, the group in Detroit of Kronwall-Jonathan Ericsson, Danny DeKeyser-Kyle Quincey and Zidlicky might have the edge, though the sixth d-man is up in the air. Brendan Smith has likely lost his job to Alexei Marchenko.

The real question for Detroit is who will be between the pipes. A few weeks ago, Jimmy Howard looked like a lead pipe cinch but he has struggled at times lately while Petr Mrazek posted a shutout Saturday. Head coach Mike Babcock will name his goalie Monday, and while I expect it to be Howard, any bobbles and he won't hesitate to turn to Mrazek. Coach Mike Babcock named his goalie Monday, and in a bit of a surprise Mrazek is going in Game 1. If he struggles, Babcock will turn to Howard, but initially, it will be Mrazek between the pipes. There is no such question in Tampa, as despite the presence of Andrei Vasilveskiy, Bishop is clearly the man. He set a team record with 40 wins while posting a 2.32 GAA and .916 save percentage, the latter two numbers slightly higher than last year. It's the play of Bishop that will be the difference for Tampa.

(NOTE: In Scenario B, the Rangers, Islanders, Senators and Lightning advance, making it Rangers-Islanders, Lightning-Senators in conference semis, with changes to finals and Cup finals projections)

WEST



Jets defeat Ducks in seven games
If we thought the East was wacky, the West could be even crazier. Anaheim's win over Arizona on Saturday gave them the top seed and matchup with Winnipeg in a series likely to be called the Teemu Selanne mash-up. The Ducks are the top seed out West for the second straight season but have a tough match-up against the Jets. Winnipeg is making their first appearance in the postseason since losing to the Rangers while in Atlanta in 2007.

Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry lead Anaheim. This year, as opposed to many others, the Ducks have a solid second-line center in Ryan Kesler. Beyond that, the other four forwards on those two lines have rotated throughout the season, including Matt Beleskey, who had the most success, Jakob Silfverberg, Kyle Palmieri, Jiri Sekac and Patrick Maroon, each to varying degrees of success. It's that uncertainty and lack of consistent production that makes it difficult to pick Anaheim, despite how good the big two and Kesler are. Offsetting that is Richard Rakell settling into the third-line center role with Andrew Cogliano stabilizing the bottom-six.

For Winnipeg, the Blake Wheeler-Bryan Little-Andrew Ladd trio is still the big names, but several others support them. Matthieu Perreault signed a three-year deal with the Jets this offseason, and has produced when healthy. The acquisition of Drew Stafford at the deadline has really bolstered the top six, allowing Wheeler to move down and play with Mark Scheifele, with whom he has great chemistry. When you add in Michael Frolik, Lee Stempniak and Jiri Tlusty, the latter two acquired at the deadline, the top-nine for Winnipeg is a lot more dangerous than those in Anaheim.

Both teams bolstered their blue lines at the deadline. Anaheim augmented Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, Francois Beauchemin and Hampus Lindholm, the first and last of that group the best on the team, by adding Simon Despres and James Wisniewski. That top six, along with Clayton Stoner, gives Anaheim one of best overall groupings top-to-bottom out West. Vatanen and Lindholm really have taken major steps forward. Winnipeg replaced Zach Bogosian with Tyler Myers, who has looked more like the Calder Trophy winner rather than healthy scratch player he was at times in Buffalo. Dustin Byfuglien has bounced between forward and defense and finished serving his four-game suspension for cross-checking J.T. Miller's neck just before the end of the regular season, so he is good to go for the playoffs. Jacob Trouba didn't take a major step forward but has the skills to be an excellent two-way defenseman, and he benefits from his pairing with Mark Stuart, while Toby Enstrom is better offensively that defensively, though not a slouch in his own zone. It may be whoever wins this matchup takes the series.

In goal, both teams have shifted their No. 1 goalies, but seem to have settled on one. Frederick Andersen ran away with the role early this season, relegating John Gibson to the bench. An injury sidelined Andersen, opening the door for Gibson, but he now has an upper-body injury, which likely means that Andersen will open the playoffs as the starter. In Winnipeg, Ondrej Pavelec lost his job with Michael Hutchinson carrying the Jets. He crashed and burned recently, allowing Pavelec a window to step back in, which he has done, carrying the Jets down the stretch into the playoffs.

Anaheim has failed to advance requisite to their talent the past several years, while Winnipeg possesses a big threat this round. The Ducks will once again finish just shy, as the Winnipeg depth up front will be enough to overcome the questions between the pipes.

Flames defeat Canucks in six games
All those who picked Calgary to make the playoffs, raise your hands. Now, how many felt that way when Marc Giordano was lost for the year with a biceps injury? Yet the Flames, spurred on by the kids up front, made the postseason for the first time since the 2008-09 seasons. Their reward is an intra-divisional matchup against the Canucks, who return to the playoffs after missing out a year ago. Vancouver got their top goaltender back over the weekend while the Sedin brothers rebounded after a rough campaign last season.

The Flames have ridden the fine play of Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, and were bolstered by a career-year from Jiri Hudler to grab the surprise playoff berth. While players such as Mikael Grandlund, David Jones, Josh Jooris, Lance Bouma and Joe Colborne have contributed, the big-three have carried the offense. It will be interesting to see if Sam Bennett, selected fourth overall last year and who made his debut Saturday, suits up in the playoffs, as he would give the team another scoring option.

For Vancouver, it wasn't just Daniel and Henrik this year, as Radim Vrbata kept producing with 31 goals and 32 assists. Nick Bonino, who came over in the Ryan Kesler deal, is centering the second line with Vrbata with Alex Burrows the other wing on the top line. Bo Horvat has had a solid rookie campaign, while Linden Vey and Derek Dorsett have been solid on the third line.

The blue line is where Calgary has the edge. Even with the loss of Giordano, Dennis Wideman and Kris Russell, each of who have stepped up, give the Flames an advantage. T.J. Brodie and Deryk Engelland have been a good second pair, while the third pair has been okay. For Vancouver, Alexander Edler and Chris Tanev are solid but not nearly as good as the top-pair for Calgary. With everyone healthy, Dan Hamhuis and Yannick Weber are the second pair with Luca Sbisa and Kevin Bieksa the third. Vancouver has the depth, and if Weber continues to produce on the man-advantage, it could tilt the balance, though Wideman-Russell have taken their games to the next level.

Between the pipes will be interesting. Ryan Miller was sidelined with a knee injury from Feb. 23 until Saturday, getting some of the rust off in a 6-5 win over Edmonton. While he was sidelined, Eddie Lack was up-and-down, either really good or really average, but helped Vancouver make the playoffs. Calgary has used both Karri Ramo and Jonas Hiller, but Ramo's lower-body injury could force Hiller to remain in the top role. He lost his job to Frederick Andersen and John Gibson for Anaheim in the playoffs last year, but enters the postseason on a role, winning five of six to lock down a playoff spot for the Flames.

The experience of Bob Hartley, compared to Willie Desjardins, behind the bench gives Calgary an edge there. In addition, Hudler and Wideman can help the wide-eyed kids deal with their first playoff exposure. While Miller has the edge over Hiller, he faltered last year for St. Louis and is still scraping the rust off. That could be big early in the series, and once the Flames have some success, they will be able to close out the Canucks).


Blues defeat Wild in six games
The Blues, who collapsed down the stretch and then blew a 2-0 series lead against Chicago last year, won five of their last six to clinch the Central division. Minnesota, like Ottawa, had a goaltender reel off an unreal stretch to make the post-season. Devan Dubnyk came over from Arizona on Jan. 3, started 38 straight games, and has compiled a 27-9-2 record, with a 1.78 GAA and .936 save percentage in a Minnesota uniform. Included within that streak is a loss to the Blues on Saturday during which he allowed three goals on 14 shots and was chased from the net.

The two teams match up well, with defense first leading to some offensive chances. St. Louis has seen Vladimir Tarasenko blossom into an elite winger, while the same can be said for Jaden Schwartz, each of whom had career-highs in goals and points. The Blues also have a healthy Alexander Steen, along with David Backes, T.J. Oshie, Jori Lehtera and Patrik Berglund, all of whom have scored at least 40 points. The checking line of Steve Ott-Marcel Goc-Ryan Reaves is solid but they will have their hands full with the Wild's top line. That trio of Zach Parise-Michael Granlund-Jason Pominville has enabled Minnesota to use Mikko Koivu at center between Chris Stewart and Nino Niederreiter on the second line, and Charlie Coyle between Thomas Vanek and Justin Fontaine. The top line in Minnesota will have to pull its weight, given the excellent depth that the Blues have.

On defense, St. Louis' top-two excel. Kevin Shattenkirk returned to play the final eight games of the season after missing 25 games with an abdominal injury, while Alex Pietrangelo eats up minutes and scored over 40 points again. Jay Bouwmeester regressed offensively but is still good in his own zone, especially when paired with Zbynek Michalek. The rest of the blue line is average at best with Barret Jackman the best of the bunch. The Wild's D is mainly centered around Ryan Suter. As good as Suter is, he actually took a mild step back this year, but Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon and Marco Scandella more than picked up the slack. The player who will be the next star on the blue line and may take that leap in this series is Matt Dumba, who has shown signs of that elite level talent during the year.

Will it be Brian Elliott or Jake Allen in goal? Look for Elliott to get the first shot in net for the Blues. But if he stumbles, head coach Ken Hitchcock will turn to Allen, who is the future starter between the pipes for St. Louis. For Minnesota, it's Dubnyk, Dubnyk and more Dubnyk. If they are to have a shot, despite their good possession numbers, Dubnyk will need to carry them as he has the past six weeks when those advanced metrics numbers have fallen. As good as Minnesota has been, St. Louis' scoring depth will prove to be too much.


Blackhakws defeat Predators in six games
The change of Barry Trotz to Peter Laviolette worked out well for Nashville, who is back in the playoffs. Of course, the play of Pekka Rinne coupled with Filip Forsberg and Mike Ribeiro, who came over a free agent, didn't hurt either. The Predators looked to have the division locked up at one point, but slumped down the stretch, ending up second and having to face the Blackhawks in the first round. Chicago, despite missing Patrick Kane for the last 21 games with a fractured clavicle, just held off Minnesota for third in the division. Both teams advanced metrics are nearly even, so neither has a major advantage there.

Both teams can score. Nashville has Forsberg, who despite slumping after his hot start, still had a fine rookie campaign with 26 goals and 63 points, while Ribeiro, who signed a one-year deal after getting bought out in Arizona, had 15 goals and 62 points. James Neal is the third member of that triumvirate, despite having just 23 goals and 14 assists. When you get beyond those three, the scoring thins out, even though the second line of Colin Wilson-Mike Fisher-Craig Smith is fairly solid. After that is a major drop off with the fourth line of Paul Gaustad, Taylor Beck and Gabriel Bourque, who are used to shut down opponents. Chicago, even without Kane, can light the lamp. Jonathan Toews is a proven playoff leader and is ably supported by Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, Brandon Saad and Andrew Shaw. Antoine Vermette and Brad Richards provide solid depth down the middle, though neither has produced much lately. Kane may be back as early as Game 1 in the first round, which is daunting to Chicago's foes.

Chicago used to have one of the best defenses in the league but the cap trade of Nick Leddy hurt the bottom six, which is an area of weakness for the Blackhawks. Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjarlmarsson and Johnny Oduya will see heavy minutes to shield the bottom duo of what should be Michael Roszival and Kimmo Timonen. Nashville has an edge on defense with Roman Josi, Shea Weber, Seth Jones, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis and Cody Franson. If the Weber-Josi duo can carry play, Nashville has a good chance at winning.

Corey Crawford gets criticized annually, yet he has won at least 30 games in each of the past four non-strike-shortened seasons. In addition, he posted a 2.27 GAA and .924 save percentage. Scott Darling and Antti Raanta have been solid back ups and one is likely to go this offseason if a good pick is brought back. Rinne was on fire early this season after returning from the hip infection that cost him 51 games last season. He showed at the World Championships after last year that he was back, and he carried that play over to the regular season. Rinne was 29-6-2 with a 1.96 GAA before spraining his knee on Jan. 13, sidelining him for three weeks. He went just 12-11-4 after that and his GAA went from 1.96 to 2.18 on the year. If Rinne is not at the top of his game, Nashville has no chance.

Chicago will be just good enough defensively this series while their second line contributes to offset the Weber-Josi duo shutting down the top line. Expect most games to be one-goal contest, with the Blackhawks' depth up front and late arrival of Kane giving them the edge over Nashville in the series).

(NOTE: in Scenario B, Anaheim, Vancouver, Minnesota and Chicago win, creating Ducks-Canucks and Wild-Blackhawks in the conference semis, and change in the conference finals projections)


Conference Semifinals

Rangers defeat Capitals in six games
In a match-up that we have seen many times before the past five years, the Rangers and Capitals meet for the fifth time in seven seasons. There really are few surprises between the two teams, as New York knows what Washington likes to do and vice versa, even though the coaches and some of the personnel have changed. Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi will be tasked with matching up with Ovechkin and Backstrom, both on even strength and man-advantage, when Ovi likes to slide to the open wing and blast away. New York has more scoring depth up front, as Chris Kreider has a big series, and on the blue line, with Kevin Klein the key d-man, which proves to be too much for Washington despite an excellent series by Holtby, who nearly matches Lundqvist step-for-step. The Rangers advance to the Eastern conference finals for the third time in four years.


Lightning defeat Canadiens in seven games
Last year, Bishop missed this opening round series with an injury, allowing Montreal to advance. This season he gets his revenge, matching Price save-for-save. Tampa's depth up front plays a major role in the win, along with excellent work by the Boyle-Brenden Morrow-J.T. Brown role, while Cedric Paquette continues to tally big goals. Garrison, Coburn and Sustr all return, offsetting a big series by a healthy Pacioretty. While Subban is a major weapon, the rest of the Montreal blueline struggles, putting additional pressure on Price. He is up to the task but gets beaten in the third period of Game 7 by Stamkos and Callahan to set up Rangers North versus Rangers South in the Eastern Conference Finals.
 
(NOTE: In Scenario B, Rangers beat Islanders while the Senators beat the Lightning, making the conference finals Rangers-Senators)


Flames defeat Jets in seven games
Too young, too inexperienced, but somehow the kids continue to shine. Casual fans who don't know Monahan and Gaudreau learn their names quickly as they lead the upstart Flames into the Western conference finals. The Jets put up a valiant effort, led by captain Andrew Ladd putting the team on his back. Hiller outplays Pavelec and Hutchinson, who replaces Pavelec during the series and leads the Jets back in the series. Sam Bennett proves to be the spark in Game 7 as Calgary advances to their first conference final since losing the Cup in 2004.


Blues defeat Blackhawks in six games
The Blues exact revenge for the opening-round defeat last season. The depth up front proves too much for the Blackhawks, whose bottom defensive pairing struggle mightily in the series. Tarasenko is a monster up front, willing St. Louis to the next round. Toews and Kane match him stride-for-stride but Lehtera also has a big series while Richards and Vermette have a difficult time generating any sort if sustained attack. Allen continues his ride between the pipes, slightly outplaying Crawford to lead St. Louis into the Western conference finals for the first time since 2001.

(NOTE: in Scenario B, the Ducks outplay the Canucks, while Kane leads the Blackhawks past the Wild, making it Ducks-Blackhawks in the conference finals)

Conference Finals

Rangers defeat Lightning in seven games

In a match-up of familiar faces, the Rangers face the Lightning in the Eastern conference finals. Tampa last played in this round in 2011, falling 4-3 to the Bruins. Martin St. Louis went from Tampa to the Rangers in exchange for Ryan Callahan and draft picks at last year's trade deadline. This past offseason saw former Rangers in Brian Boyle and Anton Stralman sign with Tampa, setting up additional subplots in the series. New York struggles based on advanced metrics, including poor puck possession in the third period, yet just find a way to win. That will be the case again as the Blueshirts advance to their second straight Stanley Cup Final.

Blues defeat Flames in six games
The dream ends one round short of the Stanley Cup final, as the Blues prove to be too deep for the Flames. The absence of Giordano looms big in this round, with Russell and Wideman unable to stop wave after wave of St. Louis forwards. Shattenkrik has a big series while Allen continues his steady, and at times spectacular, play. St. Louis gets back to the Cup Final for the first time since making it their first three years in existence from 1968-1970.

(NOTE: In Scenario B, the Rangers beat the Senators and the Blackhawks beat the Ducks, making it Rangers-Blackhawks in the final)


Stanley Cup Final
 
Rangers defeat Blues in seven games
The Stanley Cup heads back to New York, as head coach Alain Vigneault and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist exorcise past demons in leaving St. Louis blue. Rick Nash answers the critics' calls by winning the Conn Smythe Trophy and leading the parade down the Canyon of Heroes.

(Note – in Scenario B with Rangers-Blackhawks, take the Blackhawks in six games, as Crawford has a big series, matching Lundqvist, while a well-rested Kane and Toews continue to build their post-season legacies. Toews wins the Conn Smythe.)