Frozen Fantasy: Big Decisions

Did your first trade deadline sneak up on you? It did for me. It's made for some serious reflection and quick decisions. 

Never an easy spot to be in. 

I play in a lot of dynasty and keeper leagues. First, I do a gut check – am I on, ahead or behind my plan? Setting a goal and honestly benchmarking against it is always my first step. 

Once I've done that, I need to decide: reach for the top, rebuild or retool. The retool is hard – think of the suffering the Blackhawks just went through over the last few years.

They retooled at least three times in the last few years and never made the playoffs. They finally moved into full rebuild mode earlier this year, but the climb back up is long and steep. They held onto hope for far too long, but it's easy to understand why.  

If you've read my work before, you might remember my all-in trade early last season. I got Sidney Crosby, Brad Marchand, Gabriel Landeskog and Ryan Ellis for Cole Caufield, Brandt Clarke, Philip Tomasino and tbh a guy I can't remember (might have been Simon Edvinsson). 

Everyone slapped my back and said I won that deal. First, I don't trade to win – I do it for a win-win. And I'm not sure either of us won a thing. I had all four players in my lineup for a week before Ellis went down. And we all know the injury history of Landy and the Honey Badger. 

I missed the playoffs last season by a hair. And this year, I've dropped even further – I had nine guys on IR the first half of the season. My trade partner? He's plummeted to last, though that probably was his Bedard-Plan all along. 

I could've tried one more time, but I've chosen to retool. My team has an age sweet spot with Kirill Kaprizov, Mitch Marner, Trevor Zegras, Martin Necas, J.T. Miller and Landeskog up front, and Jamie Drysdale, Torey Krug and Jacob Markstrom behind the blue line. 

I won't be like the Hawks – this league is too expensive to bottom out for four-or-five years. Out went Crosby (35) and Marchand (34), even though they'll be stars for a little while longer. So were Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. In came Charlie McAvoy and Thatcher Demko, preseason Norris and Vezina candidates. Ilya Samsonov went out too. Yes, I received criticism and the deal even got hung up for a few days. A tiny tweak (draft pick) got it through. 

My retool isn't complete. But now I have more players in the age sweet spot to swing again. And I will right away. I believe my squad is stronger overall than it was a few days ago. Especially after relying on Elvis Merzlikins, Spencer Martin and Samsonov far too much. 

Trade deadline decisions are never easy. I've been playing fantasy for a long time and this was the first time ever that I'd had Sid on my team. But I couldn't win with him. It's time to move on.

Now let's take a look at who caught my eye this week. 

Michael Amadio, RW/C, Vegas (7 percent Yahoo!) – Amadio has gone from being the Knights' desperate "Plan E" to a top-line regular the last couple weeks. His seven-game point streak (five goals, four assists) was snapped Thursday, but that's not going to take him off Vegas's top line. Amadio is really good at puck retrieval – like Zach Hyman (92 percent Yahoo!) in Edmonton and Michael Bunting (72 percent Yahoo!) in Toronto. He's not afraid to dig pucks out for more talented linemates like Chandler Stephenson (83 percent Yahoo!) and Mark Stone (93 percent Yahoo!). Yup. That's a nice gig. A player like Amadio lets the Knights spread more big-money talent across more lines and that makes them a more dangerous team. He's worth a flier. 

Nicklas Backstrom, C, Washington (35 percent Yahoo!) – Backstrom's back Sunday and no one really knows what to expect. On one hand, he managed to deliver a lot of points last season pre-surgery, and did it on one leg. That's how bad his hip was. On the other hand, the surgery was incredibly invasive and mostly unprecedented for pro athletes. But if Andy Murray could return to ATP tennis after the same procedure, Backstrom can return to the NHL. He'll be a hired gun on PP1 alongside Alex Ovechkin, so points will come, but 5v5 production will be low. Stash Backstrom if you're near the top of the standings and see what comes – a lot of managers did that overnight Saturday. Ignore him if you're fighting for a playoff berth. Too much risk. 

Filip Chytil, RW/C, NY Rangers (8 percent Yahoo!) – Patience may finally be rewarding the Blueshirts and fantasy managers alike. Chytil is fast with good offensive instincts, but has suffered from unreasonable expectations as he's developed. This year, he's building on his playoff breakout and had two, two-point games (three goals) this week heading into Saturday. And nine points, including six goals (three PPG), in his last 11. Chytil was held off the scoresheet Saturday, but a 50-point season is within reach. Just be ready to move if a Patrick Kane to the Rangers deal happens. Chytil's PP time would likely dry right up. 

Samuel Ersson, G, Philadelphia (3 percent Yahoo!) – Ersson got the hook in his NHL debut right before Christmas, but he quickly forgot about that and rang up three straight wins when play resumed. Sure, the wins were against the Sharks, Kings and Ducks, but wins are wins. And he only allowed six goals during that span. Ersson has passed Felix Sandstrom on the depth chart and would be the permanent backup if the latter didn't need to pass through waivers. Consider Ersson a spot starter if the situation is right.

Martin Fehervary, D, Washington (16 percent Yahoo!) – Fehervary is a hit and block machine who chips in a few points here and there because of good wheels and strong instincts. He'll never be mistaken for an offensive wizard, but he's managed a goal and assist in four games since his New Year's Eve return from injury. And oh yeah – 13 each of hits and blocks. John Carlson's absence will be long, so Fehervary could find himself in situations he wouldn't have otherwise. Who knows what might come. At minimum, his physicality is going to give you a big boost if your league counts those stats. 

Kevin Hayes, C, Philadelphia (25 percent Yahoo!) – Hayes could have pouted when coach John Tortorella scratched him before the break. Instead, he tightened his skates and was finally rewarded with five points (one goal, four assists) in his last two games. I doubt he and Torts will ever see eye-to-eye. Regardless, Hayes' 35 points (12 PPP) in 38 games are at a career pace. He doesn't give you many hits or blocks, and his struggles at the dot aren't getting better with age. But a near point-per-game forward can help, as long as plus-minus won't hurt you. Just beware a potential trade – Hayes isn't a PP1 guy in another city. 

Scott Laughton, LW/C, Philadelphia (18 percent Yahoo!) – Laughton is riding a five-game, seven-point streak - including three goals - heading into Sunday night. And he's only been held off the scoresheet once in his last nine games (five goals, five assists). Six of those 10 points have come on special teams (two each of PPG, SHG and SHA). Laughton's game isn't complex – he's a 200-foot character guy with decent skill who'll do whatever is asked. And every coach loves his kind of low-maintenance reliability. Laughton can help right now in formats that reward special-team points. 

Ryan McDonagh, D, Nashville (3 percent Yahoo!) – Blocks, blocks and more blocks. McDonagh delivered 13 this past week – that was good for second behind Fehervary (above). He's not going to give you many points despite delivering a goal and assist over that stretch. But McDonagh's also not going to hurt you in plus-minus, and D is a fantasy wasteland on the wire right now. 

Mason McTavish, LW/C, Anaheim (20 percent Yahoo!) – McTavish enjoyed the best night of his young NHL career Friday with a two-goal, two-helper effort. Maybe he was inspired by Canada's World Junior win Thursday night – he's not far removed from that honor himself. The 19-year-old is now the Quacks top-line pivot and on PP1, and just four points behind Calder fave Matty Beniers (37 percent Yahoo!). McTavish will be given a long rope at 1C. There may be struggles, but there will be some impressive nights. Maybe not as impressive as Friday night, but impressive nonetheless. This kid is special. 

Alex Stalock, G, Chicago (8 percent Yahoo!) – OK, OK – a Hawks' starter? Hear me out. Stalock has ousted Petr Mrazek and started five of Chicago's last seven games. Sure, there were only two wins there, but one was a shutout. And his save percentage is a sharp .931 during that time. Stalock won't sabotage your save percentage or GAA, even if he doesn't win much. So if you're desperate, he may fill a short-term gap. 

Eeli Tolvanen, LW/RW, Seattle (4 percent Yahoo!) – Fit matters. And Tolvanen already seems far more at home in the fog than in the home of country music. He's produced three points in four games since arriving in Seattle, and seems to have really clicked with Yanni Gourde on the Kraken's third line. Tolvanen was a can't-miss player and fantasy prospect when he arrived in North America, and he hasn't lost those skills. Sometimes all it takes is a change of scenery to resurrect your career. That resurrection can benefit your squad too. 

Back to big decisions.

Honestly, the biggest challenge of the deal was the pushback from a few other managers. I've never objected to a trade. It was the first time I'd ever had a deal challenged. 

I wasn't impressed. 

I stepped back, worked through my frustration and reevaluated my thinking behind the deal. And I came to exactly the same conclusion, even when I reweighed Samsonov's saves above expected. 

So did my trade partner, who came second last season by less than one point. He's traded away most of his future to win now. And in a couple of years, the piper will come calling. 

But by then, he'll be a rich man. 

Until next week.