The first round of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft is in the books. Our pick-by-pick analysis of the top 30 selections from Sunrise, Florida on Friday night can be found below.
1. Edmonton Oilers, Connor McDavid (C, Erie, OHL): I'm firmly of the belief that McDavid will be one of the best, if not the best, players in the NHL, sooner than later. That said, even he can't save the Oilers by himself. Edmonton has more offensive weapons than it knows what to do with, but Oilers will never get their act together unless they get a reliable goalie and at least two top-four defensemen. The addition of Griffin Reinhart on Friday is nowhere near enough. McDavid is so ridiculously talented that I don't think even the dysfunctional Oilers could screw him up. He's the best prospect since Sidney Crosby in 2005, and the only other prospects in recent memory in the same stratosphere were John Tavares and Victor Hedman in 2009, and they weren't really close, either. McDavid will play in the NHL this year, getting big minutes and will be an overwhelming favorite to win the Calder Trophy. He will have immediate fantasy value, but it seems likely that he will be overdrafted due to his name and pedigree. Asking any 18-year-old to come in and dominate is a tall task. Expect something along the lines of 25 goals and 70 points in his rookie season. He's going to be a stud, but the Oilers are more than
The first round of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft is in the books. Our pick-by-pick analysis of the top 30 selections from Sunrise, Florida on Friday night can be found below.
1. Edmonton Oilers, Connor McDavid (C, Erie, OHL): I'm firmly of the belief that McDavid will be one of the best, if not the best, players in the NHL, sooner than later. That said, even he can't save the Oilers by himself. Edmonton has more offensive weapons than it knows what to do with, but Oilers will never get their act together unless they get a reliable goalie and at least two top-four defensemen. The addition of Griffin Reinhart on Friday is nowhere near enough. McDavid is so ridiculously talented that I don't think even the dysfunctional Oilers could screw him up. He's the best prospect since Sidney Crosby in 2005, and the only other prospects in recent memory in the same stratosphere were John Tavares and Victor Hedman in 2009, and they weren't really close, either. McDavid will play in the NHL this year, getting big minutes and will be an overwhelming favorite to win the Calder Trophy. He will have immediate fantasy value, but it seems likely that he will be overdrafted due to his name and pedigree. Asking any 18-year-old to come in and dominate is a tall task. Expect something along the lines of 25 goals and 70 points in his rookie season. He's going to be a stud, but the Oilers are more than one dynamic forward away from being a contender.
2. Buffalo Sabres, Jack Eichel (C, Boston University): Eichel is quite the consolation prize for the Sabres. Eichel already said he will only sign with Buffalo if they promise he will spend the entire season in the NHL. If they refuse, he will return to Boston for his sophomore season. It seems insane that a kid who has never played an NHL game can hold a franchise hostage like that, but the Sabres are likely going to cave to Eichel's demands. He dominated college hockey in his freshman season, and there's absolutely no reason for him to spend another season playing against kids. It would be a terrible thing for his development, considering he's ready for the NHL. Eichel is big, strong, has a great shot and his skating, while he's no speed demon, is underrated. He's a far better prospect than Buffalo's top prospect Sam Reinhart, and he would be the first overall pick pretty much any other year. He's a tick below McDavid, but he has franchise altering talent. Eichel likely will make an immediate impact.
3. Arizona Coyotes, Dylan Strome (C, Erie, OHL): I prefer Mitch Marner over Strome, but this is a solid pick. Arizona GM Don Maloney was obviously in love with the idea of possibly having Strome (who is a big, powerful, skilled center) in the middle between Max Domi and Anthony Duclair. The only real concern about Strome is that his skating needs to improve. That could potentially be a problem playing with Domi and Duclair, who can both fly. There's a decent chance that both Domi and Duclair are playing in the NHL next season, but Strome is probably ticketed for one more season in Erie. McDavid is certain to be playing in the NHL next season and Strome, who won the OHL scoring title this season with 129 points in 68 games, will become the lone focal point of the Otters offense.
4. Toronto Maple Leafs, Mitch Marner (C, London, OHL): The Leafs certainly could use a mobile defenseman, but they couldn't pass up the dynamic playmaking ability of Marner. The knock on Marner is his size (5-11, 175), but he has offensive skills that can't be taught. Phil Kessel will almost certainly be traded by the time Marner is ready to contribute, so this pick actually makes a lot of sense. All of the sudden, with William Nylander and Connor Brown already in the fold, the Leafs have some extremely gifted offensive players in their system. Their defense is still a major work in progress, but I think they took the best available player here.
5. Carolina Hurricanes, Noah Hanifin (D, Boston College): Carolina spent the seventh overall pick last year on defenseman Haydn Fleury. Fleury proceed to have an abysmal season and his stock has plummeted in the past 12 months. It seems unlikely that Hanifin will suffer the same fate. A silky smooth skater, and while he doesn't have elite offensive skills, his offensive game is underrated. Hanifin was by far the best player left on the board and he immediately becomes Carolina's brightest prospect. The Hurricanes still need tons of help up front, but they got this pick right. Carolina would be foolish if they didn't leave Hanifin in college for one more season.
6. New Jersey Devils, Pavel Zacha (C, Sarnia, OHL): I don't like this pick. The Devils, who have long known as a defensive team, should be seeking the most gifted offensive players they can find. Zacha has offensive ability, but he's a risk. Zacha is a big body (6-3, 210), but even though he played center for Sarnia, his best position as a pro will be on the wing. Injuries and suspensions limited Zacha to just 37 games this past season. He managed 16 goals and 34 points in those games. He's a good prospect, but he's by no means a can't miss offensive player and he's earned as a reputation as an individual player and a guy who takes selfish penalties. I like his upside as a potential power forward who does his best work along the wall, but I think he's a big risk.
7. Philadelphia Flyers, Ivan Provorov (D, Brandon, WHL): This was one of the worst kept secrets in the draft. The Flyers were considering moving up to get Provorov, but they were able to stay in their spot and still get their man. Provorov projects as a solid, all-around defenseman who has some offensive ability and is willing to lay the body on opponents. When you add Provorov to a defensive stable that already includes Travis Sanheim, Samuel Morin, Shayne Gostisbehere and Robert Hagg, it's quite clear that Flyers GM Ron Hextall is building from the backend. The Flyers are going to need to add some forward prospects in the near future. They have the worst group of forward prospects in the NHL.
8. Columbus Blue Jackets, Zach Werenski (D, University of Michigan): The Jackets have spent virtually all of their high picks lately on forwards and they made it clear that they were looking for a defenseman this year. Werenski has perhaps the best pure offensive skills of any defenseman in the draft, but his play in his own end needs considerable work. Werenski was Michigan's best defenseman as a 17-year-old and he was good at the World Juniors. Werenski has openly stated that he's considering signing with whoever drafted him and if he fails to make the team (which is the likely occurrence), he would go play for London in the OHL. It sounds like a good plan. London is one of the best organizations in all of junior hockey and I'm always a fan of legitimate prospects playing junior instead of college. Dillon Heatherington and Ryan Collins are the only defensive prospects of note in the Columbus system and both are project as depth defenders.
9. San Jose Sharks, Timo Meier (RW, Halifax, QMJHL): The Sharks have long been known for having one of the worst prospects pools. In the past few years they have added Meier, Nikolay Goldobin and Danny O'Regan up front and Mirco Mueller and Julius Bergman on defense. I'm a big Meier supporter. I'm a firm believer that his 44 goal, 90-point season was the result of Meier being supremely talented, not the result of playing with elite prospect Nikolaj Ehlers all season. Meier is physically mature and he has a great set of hands. The Sharks forward corps, led by Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are getting older and I could see Meier stepping in after one more season in Halifax.
10. Colorado Avalanche, Mikko Rantanen (RW, TPS, Finland): Colorado GM Joe Sakic wanted a big, physical winger and he smartly picked Rantanen over Lawson Crouse. Colorado added Nikita Zadorov and J.T. Compher in the Ryan O'Reilly deal earlier in the day and they picked up another offensive weapon in Rantanen. Rantanen is the most physically mature forward in the draft at 6-4, 210, and when you combine his size with his big shot, there's at least an outside chance that Rantanen would be able to step into the Colorado lineup this season if they are able to get him to come over from Finland. He's been playing against men the last two years and his skill set should allow him to make a relatively seamless adjustment from Europe to North America.
11. Florida Panthers, Lawson Crouse (LW, Kingston, OHL): If you've been reading our draft content here at RotoWire, you know I'm not Crouse's biggest supporter. He's certainly a better value at pick number 11 than he would be at 5 or 6, but I still don't like it. Crouse is huge (6-4, 215) and physically ready for the NHL, but I don't think he'll ever score enough to be worthy of such a high pick. Crouse has some of the main attributes as Milan Lucic (whom he compared himself to Friday), but he isn't anywhere near as consistent offensively. I think he's a third-liner, Florida obviously thinks differently.
12. Dallas Stars, Denis Guryanov (RW, Ladia Togliatti, MHL): Guryanov's stock has been rising in draft circles the past few weeks, but no one really expected he would go this high. On tape, Guryanov looks like Rangers forward Chris Kreider. A big, strong, great skater who goes hard to the net. But as has often been the problem with Kreider, there are consistency issues. When you add in the fact his contract with his Russian club reportedly doesn't expire for another two years, he's a risk. Dallas took Russian Valeri Nichushkin in the first-round two years ago, but they knew Nichushkin was coming to North America immediately. Considering Dallas doesn't have a particularly impressive pool of prospects, I would of gone elsewhere.
13. Boston Bruins, Jakub Zboril (D, Saint John, QMJHL): This is a safe pick. The Bruins traded Dougie Hamilton to Calgary earlier in the day and they had to spend at least one of their three first-round picks on a defenseman. I don't see Zboril providing a whole lot of offense when he turns pro, but more of a steady two-way guy who doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. Zboril dressed in only 44 games for Saint John this past season due to injury, but the Bruins clearly liked what they saw. I thought there were better players on the board, but I understand why the Bruins selected Zboril.
14. Boston Bruins, Jake DeBrusk (LW, Swift Current, WHL): I'm an awful big DeBrusk supporter, but this seems like a reach to me. DeBrusk is a goal scorer. He had 42 this past season for Swift Current, but I don't see a guy with elite offensive skills. He gets more out of his skills than he should because he's such a smart player. That's not the type of player I would take with a top-15 pick. I had DeBrusk ranked 21st overall and even that was considerably higher than most other analysts. When you take into account that DeBrusk has just average size (6-foot-0, 175), I think there were better options available. I always think team's should try and get as much skill as possible with first-round picks.
15. Boston Bruins, Zachary Senyshyn (RW, Sault Ste. Marie, OHL): The Bruins have been busy taking all of my favorite prospects, but again, I think this was a bit of a reach. Much like DeBrusk, I had Senyshyn ranked 27th and that was also considerably higher than other places. The difference between DeBrusk and Senyshyn is that Senyshyn is a more complete offensive player. His skating, size and finishing ability to point to a player who has a chance to take a big step forward next season. Senyshyn got limited ice time this past season because he was on such a loaded team, but that will change next year. I actually think this pick will work out for Boston, but I can understand why certain people didn't like the selection.
16. New York Islanders, Mathew Barzal (C, Seattle, WHL): The Isles had enough with the stalled development of Griffin Reinhart (despite the fact he's a No. 4 overall pick) and they dealt him in a deal that was headlined by this pick. They spent the selection on Barzal, who easily the best available player at the time. I like Barzal. I think he dropped due to a knee injury that cost him nearly half his season. He's a smart, playmaking center who gets the most out of his ability because of his hockey IQ. There have been reports that the Islanders have no intention on signing Kyle Okposo, who is an unrestricted free agent, to a big extension, so this pick makes even more sense when you take that into account.
17. Winnipeg Jets, Kyle Connor (LW, Youngstown, USHL): This may go down as being one of the better picks in the draft. It's hard to believe Connor dropped this far, especially when you consider the Bruins had three picks in a row. Connor ripped apart the low-scoring USHL this year to the tune of 74 points in 53 games. Connor can do things with the puck on his stick that few others in this draft can and he has elite speed. Simply put, he's an offensive machine. It's scary to think what he can do alongside Nikolaj Ehlers a few years down the line. Connor is committed to the University of Michigan next season.
18. Ottawa Senators, Thomas Chabot (D, Saint John, QMJHL): Much like his Saint John teammate Jakub Zboril who went earlier in the first-round, I think this is a safe pick. Chabot skates well and I think he has enough offensive ability to at least be able to help out on a second power-play unit. To say Ottawa's defensive prospect pool (well, there entire prospect pool in general) is poor would be an understatement. Chabot immediately becomes one of Ottawa's best prospects. This is about where I had Chabot slated to go. I ranked him as the 17th best prospect.
19. Detroit Red Wings, Evgeni Svechnikov (LW, Cape Breton, QMJHL): This is a typical Red Wings pick. Svechnikov reminds me a bit of former Detroit first-round pick Anthony Mantha. He's big (6-3, 205), he finishes well and his skating has improved. Svechnikov also uses his size to his advantage. In that sense, he isn't a typical young Russian forward. I think he needs one more season in juniors, but he may be ready for NHL duty after that. When you add Svechnikov to a group that already includes Mantha, Dylan Larkin, Teemu Pulkkinen and Andreas Athanasiou, the Wings have a loaded group of offensive groups.
20. Minnesota Wild, Joel Eriksson-Ek (C, Farjestad, Sweden): I look as Eriksson-Ek as a long-term third-line center. I think he can contribute enough offense to be effective, but I don't think that will be his strength. As is the case with many young Swedish kids, Eriksson-Ek is very responsible defensively. He definitely needs to get stronger, but he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses in his game. He's just a solid, all-around player. I don't see a star, but I do see a guy who should have a productive NHL career.
21. Ottawa Senators, Colin White (C, US NTDP, USHL): In my Draft Preview piece, I mentioned that I thought White would be a good late first-round pick for some team. This is a little higher than I would have selected him, but I understand what Ottawa is trying to do. I think White is a two-way, third-line center who is more of a character type player, but there are some out there who think he has more offensive ability than he has shown this past season. White works hard and skates well, but I don't see a ton of upside. He's committed to Boston College.
22. Washington Capitals, Ilya Samsonov (G, Magnitogorsk, KHL): This is a luxury pick for Washington. They have prospects coming at all positions and they can afford to wait on someone like Samsonov. His KHL contract is rumored to be for three more years and without an NHL/KHL transfer agreement in place, he isn't coming to North America anytime soon. I think Samsonov looks like current Tampa goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. He was drafted in a similar situation. He had to spend a couple of seasons in Russia after he was taken, but now he's in North America and he looks terrific. Samsonov just needs to work on refining his all-around game, there's no glaring weaknesses here. Washington will allow him develop and they should have a heck of an asset on there hands in a few years.
23. Vancouver Canucks, Brock Boeser (RW, Waterloo, USHL): There are plenty of folks who think Boeser is one of the more complete offensive players in the draft. His skating could improve, but that's the case for many kids his age. He had a very good season for Waterloo (35 goals, 68 points), one year after playing high school hockey in Minnesota. Bo Horvat is in the NHL and Hunter Shinkaruk hasn't developed as Vancouver had hoped, so Boeser is right there with Jake Virtanen as one of the best offensive prospects in the Vancouver system. Originally committed to the University of Wisconsin, Boeser will go to North Dakota instead.
24. Philadelphia Flyers, Travis Konecny (C, Ottawa, OHL): Credit Flyers GM Ron Hextall for having a good night. He got a real good defenseman in Ivan Provorov earlier and he got a talented center in Konecny. I'm not as high on Konecny as some others (mostly because I'm worried about his concussion history), but there's no doubt he has offensive ability. He's plays way bigger than his size (5-10, 170), but that has led to a ton of injuries. If he can stay healthy, a big if, there's no reason Konecny shouldn't be able to score at the NHL level. The Flyers have plenty of elite defensive prospects, but virtually no quality forwards in their cupboard. It's a good risk by Hextall and his staff.
25. Winnipeg Jets, Jack Roslovic (C, US NTDP, USHL): Roslovic had a big year, but he played nearly the entire season with Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk, two of the top prospects in the 2016 draft. Roslovic only has average size (6-0, 170), but he plays a smart game and knows his limits. He doesn't try to do too much and he is generally where he is supposed to be on the ice. He doesn't have anywhere near the offensive upside that Kyle Connor, Winnipeg's earlier first-round pick has, but he may have a higher floor. It's unlikely that Roslovic will be a complete bust. He's off to Miami (Ohio) University next year.
26. Montreal Canadiens, Noah Juulsen (D, Everett, WHL): Had I expanded my top-30 prospect list to include one or two more players, Juulsen would have been on it. He improved as the year went on and I like his offensive skills (although I don't think he'll put up 52 points a year in the NHL like he did this year in Everett). The only thing that Juulsen really needs to improve is his strength. If he can get stronger and continue his development that began this season, there's no reason he can't be a steady second-pair defender in the NHL.
27. Anaheim Ducks, Jacob Larsson (D, Frolunda, Sweden): Immediately after Larsson was selected, analysts compared him to current Ducks defenseman Hampus Lindholm because he's Swedish. I don't see Larsson having Lindholm's power-play ability, but they're both very smart players and they both move well. The Ducks have a fairly balanced system, so they could afford to take the guy they thought was the best available player. It's possible when Larsson gets stronger and gets to North America, he could take on more responsibility and become a more noticeable player. Many Swedish kids just play their game and don't try to do too much.
28. New York Islanders, Anthony Beauvillier (C, Shawinigan, QMJHL): The Islanders began the night without a first-round pick and when it was over they end up with two, including Beauvillier. The only knock against Beauvillier is that he's small (5-10, 180). All the other reports are positive. He has good puck skills, is equally adept at finishing and setting up his teammates and he works his tail off. For a kid with so many skills, it's a little surprising he didn't get more attention leading up to the draft. There were a few players who were on the board that I had rated higher than Beauvillier, but I can see why the Islanders were attracted to him.
29. Columbus Blue Jackets, Gabriel Carlsson (D, Linkoping, Sweden): Carlsson may have the least offensive ability of any player on this list. He's virtually the exact opposite of Columbus' first pick of round one, Zach Werenski. I see Carlsson as a player who can be a shutdown, penalty killing defender, assuming he can add strength. He can be the type of guy who is on the ice in the final minute of a game when his team is down a goal. It was a solid selection but there just isn't any offensive talent here.
30. Arizona Coyotes, Nick Merkley (RW, Kelowna, WHL): I'm not wild about many of the defensemen in Arizona's prospect pool, but they're loading up on talented forwards. Merkley joins Dylan Strome, Max Domi and Anthony Duclair as elite forward prospects that belong to the Coyotes. I ranked Merkley 13th, literally the only reason he dropped is because he's 5-10, 185. Credit Don Maloney for taking a guy that other teams were passing on. Merkley has terrific vision, plays his tail off and I see no reason he can't be a productive offensive player in the NHL. He needs to get stronger and he's going to need probably two, and possibly three years before he's ready for NHL duty, but Merkley is the type of talent that you invest in.
