This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Orlando, Florida
Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge - Par 72 - 7,466 yards
Field - 69 entrants
Purse - $20M
The Preview
Another long-shot victor emerged on the PGA Tour this Monday at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches as Austin Eckroat coasted to a three-shot win to open the Florida Swing, but we're treated to a stacked field this week at the fourth Signature Event of 2024 as Bay Hill once again plays host to the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Although just 69 entrants make their way to Arnie's place, a cut to the low 50 and ties, as well as those within 10 shots of the leader, still exists after the first 36 holes.
Despite stretching to nearly 7,500 yards on the scorecard, Bay Hill doesn't always reward driving distance as much as it might appear on paper. In addition to a few forced layups, thick rough surrounds these fairways, placing a greater emphasis on accuracy off the tee as long irons often find the hands of those who take their medicine. Each of the four par-3s measure at least 199 yards, which is another reason nearly 50 percent of approach shots figure to come from 175-plus yards out this week. Bolstering Bay Hill's already strenuous difficulty level, harsh winds are slated to arrive Saturday, and Sunday morning brings a possibility of showers.
Recent Champions
2023 - Kurt Kitayama
2022 - Scottie Scheffler
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton
2019 - Francesco Molinari
2018 - Rory McIlroy
2017 - Marc Leishman
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Matt Every
2014 - Matt Every
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Proximity: 175-plus yards
SG: Off-the-Tee
Bogey Avoidance
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Scottie Scheffler - $45
Scheffler followed up his 2022 victory at Bay Hill with a T4 effort here last year when he racked up 19 birdies despite hitting just 27 total fairways in regulation, and he's gained at least 8.9 strokes from tee to green in each of his three career outings at Arnie's place. The ongoing concerns with his putting haven't kept him from settling in right around +650 as a heavy favorite in the outright betting market again this week, and he's top-2 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach over his last 24 measured rounds.
Rory McIlroy - $45
Yahoo's extremely soft pricing allows for entirely feasible Scheffler-McIlroy stacks this week, especially given the number of usable options down at the $20 minimum. McIlroy just paced the Cognizant Classic in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Off-the-Tee, but he lost 3.6 strokes with the flat stick, which marked his worst putting performance since the 2023 Genesis Invitational. It's safe to project positive regression on the greens for this Florida resident and API past champion.
Sam Burns - $39
Burns has placed better than T36 just once in six trips to Bay Hill, but he's almost always putted well on the bermuda here, and he's performing far above expectation in my custom models as a potential fit this week. In addition to securing the No. 1 spot in Bogey Avoidance and scrambling over his last 24 rounds, Burns also ranks top-15 in each of SG: OTT, P3: 200-225 Efficiency, P4: 450-500 Efficiency, SG: Par-5s and proximity from 200-plus yards. These metrics help tell the story of his current streak of four consecutive top-10s from The American Express through The Genesis Invitational.
Glue Guys
Cameron Young - $36
He's winless through his first 57 career starts on the PGA Tour, but Young averaged 88.1 Yahoo fantasy points across his last three outings en route to finishes of T4-T16-T8 since the WM Phoenix Open. Young is top-5 in both SG: OTT and Prox: 175-200 over his past 24 rounds, but he's also notched back-to-back top-15s in his first two API appearances, notably pacing the field in driving distance here last year when he ranked fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Will Zalatoris - $33
The former Wake Forest Demon Deacon might be a collective five-over-par through his first three visits to Arnie's place, but Zalatoris actually has gained 19 strokes with his ball striking throughout these 12 rounds in Orlando, simply fumbling on and around the greens. Zalatoris' short game has been much improved as of late, gaining a combined seven strokes with his wedge play and putter across his past two starts at the Farmers Insurance Open and The Genesis Invitational, guiding him to finishes of T13-T2. He's top-10 in both scrambling and Bogey Avoidance over his last eight rounds, but he's also top-10 in SG: OTT and SG: APP when examining a larger 50-round sample. Additionally, Zalatoris just led the field at Riviera C.C. in Prox: 175-200.
Eric Cole - $28
Cole's seven-over 78 in the first round of last week's Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches ultimately sent him home early, defeating only Thomas Detry (11-over) through the first 36 holes at PGA National. Now that he's scared off a portion of potential backers, Cole is a fine target at lower ownership and a sub-$30 salary despite the terrible showing last week, especially given he grew up playing Bay Hill. In addition to his familiarity with the track, he's third in Prox: 175-200, fifth in SG: Putting and sixth in P3: 200-225 Efficiency over his last 24 rounds.
Bargain Bin
Tom Hoge - $20
Hoge's irons have been on fire en route to four straight finishes of T28 or better since the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, ascending to the No. 1 spot in Prox: 200-plus and second in SG: APP over his last 24 rounds. Although he's missed the cut twice and never finished higher than 15th, Hoge has gained at least 2.4 strokes from tee to green in four of five Arnold Palmer Invitational appearances.
Jake Knapp - $20
All Knapp did after picking up his maiden win in Mexico was rack up 20 birdies on the way to another top-4 finish last week at the Cognizant Classic, so he'll likely soak up a ton of ownership at the $20 minimum salary this week despite being an API debutant. Knapp nukes it off the tee and he's been awesome with his long irons from 175-plus, but he's also gained at least 1.5 strokes putting in four consecutive starts.
Corey Conners - $20
Conners ranks dead last among this week's field in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds, which also plays a large role in his lousy scrambling metrics, but he still hasn't missed a single cut since the U.S. Open last June. Relying on his consistently great ball striking, Conners is second in Prox: 200-plus, fifth in driving accuracy, sixth in SG: OTT and seventh in SG: APP over his last 24 rounds. He's also performed well in recent editions of the API, stringing together quality results of T21-T11-3 here since 2021 when he led the event in SG: Approach.
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