Weekly PGA Preview: TOUR Championship

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

TOUR Championship 

East Lake Golf Club
East Lake, GA

The PGA Tour heads to East Lake for another edition of the Tour Championship.

The season is almost a wrap and in order to appease those that are easily confused, the PGA Tour decides at this time of the year to change everything we know about the game. Well, not everything, but inserting strokes where they aren't needed is akin to making everyone play with one club for the entire round, it's just not natural. We can debate the merits of using strokes to give certain golfers an advantage, and trust me, I'm not here to say that they don't deserve an advantage, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele are well ahead of the pack and they deserve some advantage, but that advantage should be the points they've already earned. Heading into this past week, Schauffele was the only golfer within range of Scheffler and quite frankly, that's how it should be entering this week. Does anyone really think that should Sepp Straka get on fire this week and overcome everyone that he should win the FedEx Cup? The season-long contest? Look, there is no perfect solution to this problem, but the way they did it prior to the strokes getting involved was just fine in my book. Honestly, who cares that one guy might win the TOUR Championship and another the FedEx Cup? The event is called the TOUR Championship, not the FedEx Championship, we can have different winners. But alas, my rumblings will never make a dent in the system, it will keep chugging along until the players ultimately revolt, but with so much money in the pool this week, why would they ever do that? Once again, this system works for everyone except the fans, who are left with this fabricated championship 

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 12:30 PM ET Wednesday.                   

LAST TIME

 Viktor Hovland shot a final-round 63 on his way to a playoff victory over Xander Schauffele.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (+115) 

The odds are so short for the first two guys that we had to go to money line odds for the first time all season. If you were hoping to place a win bet on Scheffler this season, the window has closed. At just over even odds, this is not the bet to make. Yes, he has a strokes advantage on everyone, but one bad round and the field is level, and quite honestly Scheffler hasn't really been playing inspired golf of late.                                                                     

Xander Schauffele (+230)

Schauffele is Scheffler's closest competition to start, with just a two-stroke disadvantage and quite honestly, Schauffele looks like the better play. You're getting double the odds, with the player that has the better form and the guy who has torn up this course over the years. I would never place money on a guy to win at these prices, but I give him the slight edge over Scheffler all things considered.                          

Hideki Matsuyama (12-1)

Okay, back to the standard odds. Okay, so can I interest you in a guy who starts three strokes behind the best player in the world, a stroke behind the second best in the world and get this -- he withdrew last week. Sounds like a great deal, eh? Maybe Matsuyama will be fine, and if he is, he can certainly make up a few strokes, but this isn't exactly a big number. I'll be looking a little further down the line for some good value.                                                                 

THE NEXT TIER

Rory McIlroy (18-1)

Honestly, the odds for anyone that starts more than five strokes back should be much higher, but I guess when there's only 30 players in the field, you can't go too crazy. With that in mind, you need to find guys that can go on massive runs and McIlroy is certainly capable of that. I thought he might mail it in this past week, but he actually hung in there and now that the finish line is in sight, perhaps he has one good run left.

Sam Burns (35-1)            

Burns has been playing really well lately and he's just the type of player that could make up a lot of ground in a hurry. Burns has always been a streaky golfer on the PGA Tour, but that's exactly what you need this week, someone who can score in bunches, grinders need not apply. Burns has not fared all that well at this event in his three starts here, but again, he's always had a deficit to deal with, perhaps this year he can overcome it.

Keegan Bradley (40-1)

His win at the BMW vaulted him from 50th in the standings to fourth, which places him just four strokes behind our leader. Normally I'd say the odds of Bradley catching Scheffler are pretty long, but considering the way they are both playing entering this week, who knows? Bradley hasn't played this event much over the past decade, but he did finish T9 in his most recent start here.

LONG SHOTS

Viktor Hovland (75-1)   

Hovland was a guy that I thought could make a run during these playoffs and while he did fare well in the first event, he came back to earth a bit in Colorado. With that said, he didn't play so poorly at the BMW that he's seemingly out of the mix at East Lake. Hovland has a lot of ground to make up, he's at the point of no return for me, but when he's on, he's one of the best and if he gets it going early, he could be a factor.

Adam Scott (120-1)          

I'm setting my point of no return at 2-under-par to start the week. Anyone beyond that I just can't consider. With that in mind, there are some decent options to look at, including Scott, who was in position to win this past week but did not play well enough on the weekend. Scott starts seven strokes back of Scheffler, but again, if he plays like he has played over the past couple weeks and Scheffler does the same, he can certainly make up that ground. Scott hasn't played this event that often over the past 10 years, but he does have four top-10s in seven starts, most of which came prior to the strokes being in play.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Xander Schauffele - I realize that probably one percent of those in OAD pools have Schauffele available, but that's probably true of a lot of players right now. If you have saved Schauffele for this event and you're still in the hunt, congrats, because I doubt anyone has Scheffler available. The reason I'm mentioning Schauffele here and not Scheffler, is the former's track record at East Lake, which is incredible. Schauffele's worst finish in seven starts here is T7 and he has finished outside the top five just once!  

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Sam Burns - Burns is actually someone that might be available for a good number of OAD players as he hit a rut in the middle of the season and is only recently pulling out of it. Burns is starting to heat up and though he's got a lot of ground to make up this week, it wouldn't surprise me to see him land a top-5 by week's end.      

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Adam Scott - I have Scott listed here mainly because with a month to go in the season, Scott wasn't someone that most OAD players would count on being available at this event. Scott played his way in however and now that he's in, he can do some more damage if he stays near the form he has shown recently. It's tough to recommend anyone with a big stroke deficit, but you have to work with what you have and if that's Scott, then it's not so bad. 

Buyer Beware: Scottie Scheffler - I'll start by stating that if you have Scheffler in a OAD format, you obviously have to use him, but I'm not 100 percent sold he's going to win. I guess this is more of a "beware if you are placing a win bet" situation, because it's not a sure thing, Xander owns this course and could easily win this week.                                      

This Week: Hideki Matsuyama - Well, my plan to save Matsuyama for the final week paid off as he withdrew from the BMW, but Morikawa was unable to capitalize and I ended the week right about where I started. I surprisingly have plenty of options, but few are good ones and even though Matsuyama withdrew after one round at the BMW, I have to take him because he starts in the best position.  

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Xander Schauffele ($12,800)
Middle Range: Sam Burns ($10,300)
Lower Range: Robert MacIntyre ($7,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES