This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
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2024 World Wide Technology Championship: The cut line is coming
The FedEx Cup Fall has just three weeks remaining. This eight event sprint to qualify for 2025 TOUR cards takes us to Los Cabos, Mexico. For the second year in a row, the World Wide Technology Championship will be contested at El Cardonal at Diamante. Designed by Tiger Woods in 2014, this seaside setting allowed record scoring in 2023. Erik van Rooyen won last year by two strokes over Camilo Villegas at 27 under par! Speaking of Villegas, the PAC Chairman made the headlines last week even though the PGA TOUR was off. In a letter to the players, the PAC has outlined significant changes to the tournament structure for 2026. Field sizes will be reduced, Monday open qualifying was removed from a number of events, and the pace of play guidelines have been updated.
The field size changes in particular are a harsh reminder of why we are in Cabo. Players have three events to climb inside the top 125 of the FedExCup Standings. According to Camilo's changes, that number will be 100 in 2026! Guess what, the TOUR is a strict meritocracy. You gotta play to stay. Although open qualifiers create fun stories that last about four days, the fact is the PGA TOUR needs to promote the best playing product possible. Fans are looking elsewhere for their golf entertainment outside of the majors. By making it more difficult to keep your card, the players will have to get better. The churn will force a talent evolution similar to the one we saw when Tiger took over. I believe many of the changes they propose are good for the professional game.
2024 World Wide Technology Championship: World Woods
We were all introduced to El Cardonal at Diamante last year when the World Wide Technology Championship needed to find a new home. To be honest, El Cardonal was much more fun to watch than El Cameleon in Mayakoba. The entire fall is a scoring fest, and this venue fits right in. What better place to visit right after the time change dampens our days with darkness than paradise alongside the Pacific. I don't know if we all were ready for 27 under par, but we got there. If you shot 16 under par for 72-holes you finished T31! The cut line was five under par, and the scoring seemed to get better as the weekend went on. There were 23 rounds of 64 or better during the week. Eleven of them happened on Sunday.
Sixteen players of the 73 who made the cut shot four rounds in the 60s. Twenty-two percent of those making the cut did not score over 70 at any time during the event. The 2023 scoring average for all four rounds was 3.2 under par and the average almost crossed five under par on Sunday. Fourteen of the 18 holes played under par for the week and 16 holes carried a birdie rate higher than 15 percent. I think you get the idea as we return to Woods' World. Pack a scorching hot putter and get ready to go south under the border.
The PGA TOUR heads to paradise this time of year for one simple reason: the weather. The forecast in Cabo calls for temperatures in the mid to high 80s each day and wind off the water each afternoon in the 8-12 mph range. No rain on the weather app, our field of 120 players will have no excuses for not playing well. El Cardonal is a par 72 scorecard reaching 7,452 yards. Considering we have four par 5s and a bunch of downhill holes set on a mountainside, length was not the main reason why these guys go deep. There might be six par 4s over 460 yards, but let's face it that's a driver and a scoring iron.
There's no doubt they will be using driver everywhere as the course has no rough and 97 acres of FW. Top put that in perspective, the LPGA's venue has 30 acres of fairway in Hawaii and most major championship venues have 25-28 acres of the short grass. Ninety-seven acres is ridiculous. The field hit a record 90 percent of their fairways last year. The PGA TOUR average is 62 percent. Adam Long hit all 56 fairways for the week. Austin Cook hit 53 of 56 fairways and finished tied fifteenth for fairway accuracy. He only missed three! Alongside the massive fairways we have 48 bunkers and an average green size of 8,300 sq/ft.
The greens are covered in Platinum Paspalum grass. A spongy, grainy grass that we see at many of these seaside venues. Much like the other species, certain players putt well on these specific surfaces. Last year's top 10 had an interesting mix of young and old players. These guys felt a sense of urgency to push for points in the closing weeks. Nobody wants to lose status and head back to the Korn Ferry Tour. Or worse yet, get caught in the re-shuffle between both tours. That's what those 2026 changes are really trying to eliminate. The TOUR is drawing a line in the sand if you want to play going forward. Let's be honest, the beach in Cabo is not a bad place to try and cross it!
2024 World Wide Technology Championship: Cabo San Birdies
Do you remember all of the discussions heading into this event last year? In looking back at RTL's 2023 narrative preparing to pen this year's preview, I came across a number of gems. Little did we know how deep the field would go. In summary, we favored length and paspalum putting. Well, the top 10 from year ago only had one player -- Ludvig Aberg -- ranked in the top 25 in driving distance on TOUR. The rest of the leaderboard were all guys who could get it in the hole. As it turned out, El Cardonal did not play that long. The field had very little trouble hitting any fairway and our statement of needing 24 sub-par scores would have had you finish in fourth place if you didn't have any bogeys.
Let's start again with the putting. El Cardonal and these large greens had a very high three-putt percentage of 65 percent. The PGA TOUR average week to week is 55 percent. Tiger's greens were wicked and if you hit the ball near the hole, you could make putts. Find yourself on the wrong level, shelf, or tier and it was trouble. Remember the top 10... Matt Kuchar, Villegas who would win next week in Bermuda, Justin Suh, Andrew Putnam, and Mackenzie Hughes all scream putting out loud! I'm starting our card right there.
Another attribute we picked up from last year was hole proximity. It sounds obvious, but in birdie-fest weeks do we weight this skill enough? Gaining birdie opportunities on the field are really important. I not sure if we get to 27 under again, but the mid-20s should be the target score. In order to do that, we need players who can create 36 legitimate sub-par scoring opportunities. That's definitely a skill not all players have. The ability to accumulate low scores and keep going is a unique mindset. EVR did it last year playing for his sick college teammate. Who will have the extra motivation this year?
The field made 2,094 birdies last year. Hot golfers generally don't just show up out of thin air. We have been tracking the best FedExCup Fall players for the past two seasons. Here's a quick top 10 of those players from the past two falls who are also in great current form. Don't be surprised if our winner comes from right here:
Kuchar, J.J. Spaun, Beau Hossler, Maverick McNealy, Ben Griffin, Harris English, van Rooyen, Adam Svensson, Joel Dahmen, Vince Whaley
There's a couple of rookies who we must pay attention to as well. Here's the point, talk about stats and skill sets all you want, but a majority of a positive betting card for the WWT is going to come from this core group. Even Whaley is gaining an average of seven tenths of stroke per round on the field over the past two fall runs. Favoring the fall player history is an edge most may overlook. Experience counts so much in golf and winning is extremely hard. Taking players with a positive fall (current and recent past) makes great sense.
Mid/long iron play also separated the field last year. Those 200-yard par 3s and reachable par 5s call for an exact approach from long range. Tiger was the best long iron player of all-time. You better believe he's going to create a layout that will test that specific skill. Those greens are also some of the most difficult on the course when it comes to hitting the correct quadrant or section. I was amazed at the level of scoring on the longer holes last year. All of this is happening at sea level. There's no carry assistance. Fact is, give these guys a large landing area and they are going to gain extra yardage. From there it's just target practice at this level.
Time for the research to get tested. We have had plenty of contenders this fall on the men's and women's side. Let's take that momentum and close out win 11 this week.
2024 World Wide Technology Championship: Outright Winners
Lucas Glover (+3000)
At sixty-third in the FEC Fall standings, Glover needs a great week to end the season with signature status.
- Glover in his last three starts has finished 13-3-3.
- Lucas finished 12 under par at El Cardonal last year and paspalum is his best putting surface.
- Glover is first in birdie opportunities and long par 4 scoring in the field (450-500).
Harry Hall (+3000)
The Hall train rolls on into Mexico.
- Hall finished ninth at the Shriners and thirteenth at the ZOZO.
- Harry is ranked second in the field for BoB%.
- Hall is gaining an average of five strokes on the field total over his last 10 starts and that includes a win at the ISCO in July.
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